MUMBAI, April 16, 2026, 15:55 IST
India’s main stock gauges reversed early strength to close down on Thursday, with optimism around fresh U.S.-Iran negotiations evaporating late in the session. The Nifty 50 dipped 0.14% to 24,196.75, and the Sensex gave up 0.16%, ending at 77,988.68.
The turnaround is notable, coming off Wednesday’s 1.6% surge that left both indexes at their highest since March 10. Traders continue to weigh whether optimism around peace talks can withstand India’s deep dependence on imported oil—about 90% comes from overseas. March retail inflation sped up to 3.4%, but stayed under the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target.
Stocks initially tracked gains in Asia after Washington hinted at a possible restart of talks with Tehran. “Investors are hoping for a positive outcome on the Middle East conflict,” said Ankur Punj, managing director and business head at Equirus Wealth, speaking to Reuters. But crude didn’t hold its earlier dip—Brent jumped $1.65 to $96.58 a barrel by 0832 GMT. Reuters
Broader indexes stayed resilient. Mid-caps climbed 0.63%, small-caps up 0.83%. Metals and IT names led gains, but private banks and financials slipped. HDFC Bank, ONGC, and HDFC Life weighed on the Nifty.
Non-bank lender HDB Financial Services jumped, boosted by a 41.4% surge in quarterly profit on stronger margins and better asset quality. “Subsiding segmental stress triggered a sharp recovery,” ICICI Securities noted, pointing to renewed investor focus on individual company results. Reuters
Whether foreign cash returns is the bigger unknown. Since the beginning of 2025, overseas investors have pulled roughly $38 billion from Indian equities, including a record $12.7 billion flight in March. State Street’s Angela Lan pointed out that “Even before the conflict, India was facing headwinds from elevated valuations.” At Aberdeen, the view is that foreign investors will probably keep their guard up for now. Reuters
Some pressures seemed to lighten under the surface. The rupee stayed near 93.30 to the dollar, with one-month dollar/rupee NDF points — a gauge tracked by offshore traders for hedging or speculation — sliding to around 37 paise, a sharp drop from almost 100 paise just a week ago. According to ANZ’s Dhiraj Nim, offshore bearish bets were probably being closed out following the RBI’s recent foreign-exchange restrictions.
The rebound feels shaky. Should negotiations with Iran break down or fresh trouble flare up in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike, inflating India’s import costs and stirring up inflation—this, while global equities hover at lofty valuations, could expose Indian stocks to renewed selling pressure.
