FINDLAY, Ohio, April 29, 2026, 15:04 EDT
- Marathon Petroleum climbed roughly 3.2% in the afternoon session, with investors looking toward its earnings due May 5.
- Fuel margins roared higher in the first quarter, putting U.S. refiners back in focus.
- Near-term risks include ongoing planned work at Marathon’s Robinson refinery, along with persistently high gasoline prices.
Marathon Petroleum shares jumped Wednesday, drawing buyers ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Wall Street is betting on a strong recovery in profits after fuel margins improved. The Findlay, Ohio refiner’s stock was recently trading around $240.05, a gain of about 3.2%, market data showed.
Timing’s key here. Marathon’s numbers land May 5, and that report should reveal just how much of the latest surge in fuel margins actually hit earnings instead of slipping away to downtime, repairs or volatility in commodities. The first-quarter financials conference call is slated for 11 a.m. ET on the same day.
U.S. refiners are drawing attention as Middle East-linked supply hiccups push up margins on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum are all in the spotlight after Reuters flagged expectations of a stronger quarter for the group. LSEG projects Marathon will come in at 86 cents per share—turning around from a 24-cent loss this time last year.
The “crack spread”—the difference between crude oil prices and what refiners get for products like gasoline and diesel—has surged. According to Reuters, ultra-low sulfur diesel’s crack spread soared to a record $86.25 per barrel on March 20. Gasoline margins also climbed in the quarter. Reuters
“Refiners had a whirlwind Q1’26,” said Matthew Blair, analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co, in comments to Reuters. He flagged the spike in product cracks—refining margins—after the Iran conflict ramped up. Reuters
Peer numbers sent the trade higher. Phillips 66 came out with an unexpected adjusted profit Wednesday, as better refining margins and ramped-up utilization cushioned swings in commodity pricing. The stock jumped over 6% by midday.
Valero climbed roughly 3.3% Wednesday, with Phillips 66 advancing about 4.2%. Those moves kept buyers in the sector as traders debated if Marathon’s larger footprint in the U.S. Midcontinent and West Coast might give it an edge.
The outlook isn’t as bright for consumers. U.S. gas prices jumped to $4.18 a gallon on Tuesday, hitting the highest mark seen in almost four years. That’s according to AAA figures referenced by Reuters, as a rise in crude and fuel costs pushed prices higher.
The pressure isn’t one-sided for Marathon. Refining margins get a boost from rising product prices, yet pricier crude, outages, or maintenance can eat into those gains. Reuters said Marathon’s Robinson refinery in Illinois—capacity 253,000 barrels per day—entered planned maintenance in mid-March, with several units to stay down through at least mid-May.
Marathon started the quarter on sturdier footing compared to last year. Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter jumped to $4.07 per share, a sharp increase from 77 cents twelve months prior. The company also posted higher refining and marketing margins, climbing to $18.65 a barrel from $12.93.
Cash returns are still the main draw for shares here. Back in February, Marathon reported it handed $1.3 billion back to shareholders during the fourth quarter. As of the end of 2025, $4.4 billion in buyback authorization remained on its books.
There’s a catch: much of the optimism could already be reflected in the share price. Marathon has climbed alongside other refiners, so the spotlight may shift from Q1 results to what executives say about the outlook for the remainder of the year. “The market will likely focus more on rest-of-year earnings,” TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman told Reuters. Reuters
