NEW YORK, April 29, 2026, 17:31 EDT
- On Wednesday, AAA data showed the average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to $4.229 a gallon.
- The EIA said gasoline stockpiles dropped by 6.1 million barrels last week, taking inventories below the five-year average.
- Analysts are bracing for further pain at the gas pump, with crude holding above $100 and ongoing refinery outages squeezing fuel supply.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. edged up to $4.229 a gallon on Wednesday, marking the steepest level since July 2022. Rising crude and shrinking fuel inventories are setting the tone for further hikes as the summer driving season nears. AAA’s state breakdown puts California way out front at $5.983, with Hawaii at $5.634 and Washington $5.539. Drivers in Oklahoma, on the other hand, saw the lowest price at $3.658.
This comes as U.S. gasoline demand tends to climb heading into summer, with more drivers hitting the road for vacations and holidays. Soaring prices are hitting wallets just as families juggle steeper bills for travel, food delivery, and other fuel-dependent services.
The crunch isn’t limited to crude anymore. According to the Energy Information Administration, motor gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended April 24, sitting 2% under the five-year seasonal average. Demand, as measured by “product supplied,” averaged 9.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks—1.2% higher than the same stretch last year. ir.eia.gov
Oil prices surged, sending pump costs higher. Brent crude jumped 6.1%, closing at $118.03 a barrel on Wednesday, then briefly reached $120 after settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 7% to finish at $106.88. According to Reuters, the rally stemmed from stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, fresh worries about prolonged Middle East supply disruptions, and unexpectedly steep draws in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.
“If Trump is prepared to extend the blockade, supply disruptions would worsen further and continue to push oil prices higher,” said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures. The Strait of Hormuz is still the main chokepoint for the market; about a fifth of the world’s oil-and-gas supply passes through there. Reuters
So the outlook for drivers just got a little steeper, at least for now. Gasoline futures—those wholesale contracts traders use to lock in prices ahead—jumped 5% Wednesday to $3.7423 a gallon, the loftiest mark since 2022, according to Reuters.
Retailers haven’t fully caught up yet. Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, told Reuters that station margins have been squeezed—wholesale prices jumped but street prices lagged, so dealers ended up “taking one for the team,” as he put it. Reuters
Trouble at refineries piled on. On Sunday, BP’s Whiting plant in Indiana—capacity 440,000 barrels a day—was knocked offline by a power failure. Then on Tuesday, Shell’s Norco facility in Louisiana, which handles 250,000 bpd, was hit by a fire. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the Whiting outage could push some Midwest gasoline prices above $5 a gallon.
The run-up to peak travel is off to a rough start for gasoline stocks, according to Bob Yawger, managing director at Mizuho. “This is getting ugly fast,” he told Reuters. Reuters
The forecast could swing in either direction. Should tensions with Iran subside, shipping routes unclog or Americans drive less, prices might plateau or even slip; “demand destruction” comes into play when elevated prices push consumers to cut fuel use. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, pointed out that U.S. demand hasn’t really dropped yet, noting it often takes a month or two for habits to shift. Reuters
A longer-term risk for oil is on the horizon, too. Wood Mackenzie flagged the UAE’s potential OPEC departure as a factor that could boost oversupply risks starting in 2027. Still, chief analyst Simon Flowers expects “minimal impact” on 2026 fundamentals—even with a reopened Hormuz. Reuters
Gasoline prices are currently squeezed by several forces: crude trading north of $100, U.S. fuel inventories thinning out, refinery hiccups, and summer demand looming. With none of those factors easing, odds favor another uptick at the pump rather than a drop.
