New York, May 4, 2026, 12:04 EDT
- BigBear.ai will release its first-quarter numbers once markets close Tuesday. Options traders are positioning for a sizable swing.
- This test follows a soft fourth quarter, alongside a shareholder vote that doubled the company’s authorized share count.
- SoFi shares dropped after earnings, as investors continue to penalize growth stocks that don’t hike their outlook.
BigBear.ai shares climbed Monday as the company’s first-quarter earnings loomed, with options markets signaling a potential shake-up after Tuesday’s close. According to TipRanks, options are pricing in a possible 19% swing either way.
BBAI climbed 2.2% to $4.23, touching $4.35 during the session. The company plans to report first-quarter earnings around 4:15 p.m. ET on May 5, with a call set for 4:30 p.m.
The timing is critical here: BigBear is working to convince investors that revenue has steadied, following a fourth-quarter drop of 38% to $27.3 million. That slump was mostly due to reduced activity in Army programs. Looking forward, the company is forecasting 2026 revenue between $135 million and $165 million. The midpoint of that range signals roughly 17% growth over 2025.
The spotlight is now on the balance sheet. At a reconvened special meeting April 21, BigBear shareholders gave the green light to double authorized common shares—bumping the cap to 1 billion from 500 million. For context, authorized shares set the ceiling for what the company could issue, which isn’t the same as what’s currently out there or promised.
The approval hands management added leeway to raise funds for deals, growth plans or tweaks to the balance sheet—though investors are left alert to possible dilution. Simply Wall St noted the expanded equity approval could open doors for BigBear on projects or acquisitions, but flagged the same move as a key risk: fresh funding could end up costing existing shareholders.
Back in March, CEO Kevin McAleenan said BigBear had slashed its debt by over 90%, while also building up enough cash to “invest in catalytic technologies.” CFO Sean Ricker added the company brought in $693 million in 2025 using at-the-market equity facilities and warrants, and wrapped up its biggest deal yet with the acquisition of Ask Sage. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
The setup is a double-edged sword. Options are about volatility, not picking a side. A revenue miss, any soft margin outlook, or hints that the new share authorization could see significant use—all that could challenge the rally. BigBear, for its part, also flags risks tied to shifts in government programs, possible budget caps, and procurement holdups.
SoFi just handed investors a caution flag from another fast-growing name. The fintech reported record first-quarter revenue and loan originations last week, but shares slipped anyway after management left its 2026 forecast untouched. William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey noted SoFi “uncharacteristically did not flow through” first-quarter upside into its outlook. Reuters
Shares of SoFi slipped 1.0% to $16.26 late Monday, despite the company posting adjusted net revenue of $1.1 billion and net income of $167 million. Loan originations hit a record $12.2 billion, with membership climbing 35% to 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto credited the gains to users relying on SoFi both for “major financial decisions and all the days in between.” SEC
BigBear has its work cut out in this part of the market: themes might be compelling, but if the numbers or guidance don’t deliver, that’s not enough. Eyes also turned to Palantir, the bigger AI software contractor often watched as a gauge for defense and government AI demand. Palantir is set to report first-quarter results, with consensus pegging revenue near $1.54 billion—a year-over-year jump of about 74%, according to Investing.com.
With BBAI stock, Tuesday’s report isn’t just another earnings snapshot—it’s a credibility test. The market’s already pricing in a big swing. Now, management needs to demonstrate that their defense AI pitch can actually translate government contracts, acquisitions and cash into more straightforward revenue growth.
