LOS ANGELES, May 10, 2026, 15:01 PDT
Wall Street’s patience is wearing thin with The Trade Desk after the ad-tech firm issued a second-quarter sales forecast that fell short of estimates and analysts downgraded the stock. Shares last traded at $23.08 but slipped as low as $19.72 earlier, with more than 41 million shares changing hands.
But the first-quarter numbers aren’t the full story. The real hitch? Guidance for the next quarter looks soft. Analysts polled by Investing.com were looking for second-quarter revenue closer to $771 million. Instead, The Trade Desk pointed to a minimum of $750 million—growth lands around 8%.
This is notable since The Trade Desk has been seen for years as a benchmark for rapid growth in programmatic advertising—the automated side of digital ad buying. Its main business: a demand-side platform, which lets marketers snap up ads across websites, streaming TV, audio, and other digital outlets, skipping the hassle of negotiating with each publisher separately.
First-quarter revenue reached $689 million, up 12% from last year’s $616 million, the company reported. Net income dropped to $40 million, or 6% of revenue, compared to $51 million. GAAP diluted EPS came in at 8 cents, down from 10 cents. Adjusted EBITDA ticked down to $206 million versus $208 million a year ago.
Chief Executive Jeff Green described it as “another strong quarter,” crediting strategic upgrades for the company’s outperformance. Green also highlighted ongoing macro headwinds but emphasized that the focus stayed on “objective, transparent and data-driven media buying” across the open internet. The Trade Desk
The forecast came in below the mark. The Trade Desk projected second-quarter revenue at a minimum of $750 million, with adjusted EBITDA pegged near $260 million. Interim CFO Tahnil Davis reiterated to analysts that the company’s outlook for full-year adjusted EBITDA margin remained at no less than 40%.
Wall Street analysts wasted no time. Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer downgraded the shares to Perform from Outperform, saying he doesn’t expect a “catalyst until revenue accelerates.” William Blair’s Ralph Schackart also shifted to Market Perform, flagging ongoing share losses to rivals, stubbornly slow growth, and issues tied to pricing on Kokai, The Trade Desk’s upgraded AI platform. At KeyBanc, Justin Patterson dropped his rating to Sector Weight, citing pushback from ad agencies, instability in the Middle East, and mounting competitive threats. Investing.com
Green took a question about the agency situation on the call. On Publicis, he pointed out The Trade Desk has racked up billions in business with the group since 2018 and said they’re still having “great dialogue.” Negotiations haven’t wrapped. The Motley Fool
Competition is getting more head-to-head. Green pointed to Amazon, noting The Trade Desk’s pharma group managed to reclaim business that had shifted to Amazon’s ad platform. The company also locked in a 2026 joint business plan, or JBP, with the client—calling for a 114% year-over-year increase in spend on The Trade Desk.
Management flagged a handful of new products and partnerships to help counter the slowdown. Among them: Koa Agents with Stagwell, OpenAds publisher adoption, LinkedIn data tied to connected TV, plus fresh retail-media integrations with Pacvue, Skai, and Dollar General. For context, connected TV here is advertising that runs alongside streaming television.
Leadership’s been in flux as well. Digiday said Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacobson is set to exit for OpenAI but plans to stay on The Trade Desk’s board. That’s another name joining the list of senior exits lately, what the company calls a changing of the guard.
The trouble is, this slowdown might run deeper than just the cycle. In its latest quarterly filing, The Trade Desk flagged some real risks: clients could easily shift their media budgets to rivals, agency and advertiser pushback on pricing could bite, competition might heat up, and spending on AI could drive up platform costs. None of these are trivial, especially with growth forecasts coming down.
Management has some breathing space, for the moment anyway. As of the end of March, the company reported $878 million in cash and cash equivalents, plus another $528 million parked in short-term investments. Operating cash flow hit $392 million for the quarter. There’s also $327 million left on the buyback authorization. Now the focus shifts to whether second-quarter demand can stabilize enough to make that soft outlook appear merely conservative rather than hinting at a deeper problem.
