NEW YORK, May 11, 2026, 07:04 EDT
AST SpaceMobile will report first-quarter results Monday, coming off a new U.S. license for its planned 248-satellite direct-to-phone network—alongside the shadow of a recent launch failure that’s likely to draw tough questions. Investors are zeroed in on whether AST can stick to its 2026 rollout timeline. The earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, right after the bell.
The clock’s ticking. MarketBeat has consensus pegging a Q1 loss of 23 cents per share, revenue coming in at $39.01 million. ASTS wrapped up Friday at $75.05, but by 6:55 a.m. ET Monday, shares were quoted at $76.75 in the premarket.
The regulatory green light for AST SpaceMobile is already in the bag. Now, the real test: can the Midland, Texas firm turn that FCC approval into actual coverage, deals with partners, and a fleet of satellites in space before investors bail?
AST SpaceMobile got the nod from the FCC to launch and run a low-Earth orbit fleet, with permission for as many as 248 satellites. The order gives the company the green light to provide what the agency calls Supplemental Coverage from Space, or SCS—satellite links that bolster mobile networks by tapping into carrier spectrum and connecting straight to regular phones. According to AST SpaceMobile, the go-ahead includes 700 MHz and 800 MHz low-band spectrum, coordinated with Verizon, AT&T, and FirstNet.
Abel Avellan, the CEO, described the move as an “important step” for AST as it ramps up its network and edges “closer to commercial service.” Unlike rivals that require extra satellite hardware, the company says its system connects through regular, unmodified smartphones. Business Wire
The license isn’t without strings. The FCC order puts AST on the clock: half its approved satellites must be launched and working by Aug. 2, 2030, with the remainder live no later than Aug. 2, 2033. If the company misses these deadlines, it risks losing authorization for any birds not yet up—and could also forfeit a posted surety bond.
The big issue right now is the BlueBird 7 miss. AST pointed to Blue Origin’s New Glenn upper stage for putting the satellite into a lower orbit than planned—the satellite separated as expected and powered up, but the orbit just wasn’t high enough to keep it operational. That means it’ll deorbit. According to AST, insurance should handle the loss. The company also said BlueBirds 8 through 10 are nearly set, likely shipping in roughly 30 days, with production continuing all the way to BlueBird 32.
Blue Origin faces its own setback after the launch issue. According to Reuters, the FAA has ordered a mishap investigation led by Blue Origin, grounding New Glenn until the agency signs off on both the final report and any needed fixes. Early indications, CEO Dave Limp noted, point to a BE-3U upper-stage engine that just didn’t generate enough thrust to deliver the rocket to its intended orbit.
The analyst camp is split. Greg Pendy at Clear Street stuck to his Buy call and $115 target after the FCC news. Over at Investing.com, BofA Securities and UBS each held Neutral, aiming for $100 and $85, while Scotiabank kept its Sector Underperform stance. Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha’s Chris Lau—described as an individual investor and economist—tagged the stock as a “Strong Buy,” saying AST sees 2026 as an “inflection year,” projecting revenue will at least double from its 2025 level. StreetInsider.com
The risk section spells it out: AST faces the challenge of building, launching, and activating satellites on a large scale. Missing one launch isn’t a dealbreaker, but a string of holdups could push commercial rollout further down the road, raise concerns about cash burn, and make its lofty valuation hard to justify. TipRanks breaks down the bear case: delays, steep costs, and a big gap between current revenue and the company’s own future goals.
The fight for satellite-to-device dominance is intensifying. SpaceX’s Starlink notched the first FCC green light under the SCS rules for its T-Mobile partnership, according to Via Satellite. Last month, Amazon unveiled a $11.57 billion deal—Reuters’ number—to acquire Globalstar, aiming to layer direct-to-device capabilities into its Amazon Leo satellite system.
Market psychology plays a role here, too. Last week, Bloomberg pointed out that AST’s stock has been driven by online buzz, with its rally hitting around 6,000%—far above what its current revenue would justify. Execution headlines alone have sent the shares surging.
One source of selling pressure just faded. According to an SEC filing, Rakuten Mobile, Hiroshi Mikitani, and Rakuten Group have wrapped up a trading plan, unloading sale shares between April 27 and May 5. Their combined stake in AST now stands at 15.5 million shares, or 5.3% of the class.
So Monday’s call zeroes in on a tight list: satellite shipment counts, launch speed—including switching to different providers—timelines for when partner-backed service actually starts, and the cash burn needed to reach that point. AST got the FCC’s go-ahead for a larger network, sure, but investors aren’t interested in slogans now—they want dates.
