Copenhagen, May 13, 2026, 11:02 CEST
- NKT traded up 6.45% at DKK 1,048 in Copenhagen late this morning, just off its session peak of DKK 1,049—which is also the stock’s 52-week high.
- After a first-quarter beat, operational EBITDA landed at €97 million, outpacing the €84 million analysts were looking for. Margin hit 16.0%, clearly above the 13.4% consensus.
- Bulls are hanging their hats on that €13.5 billion Transmission backlog. On the flip side: organic growth slipped 4%, guidance stayed flat, and shares are now bumping up against—or topping—numerous analyst targets.
NKT surged in Copenhagen, delivering the earnings lift investors had been waiting for as the cable maker’s order windfall flowed through to profits. Shares climbed 6.45% to DKK 1,048 not long after 11 a.m. local, opening at DKK 995 and touching DKK 1,049—a new 52-week high.
This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill “solid quarter.” The chart jumped on what turned out to be a backlog-and-margin story: NKT landed a record haul of new orders, booking more than €4.2 billion in fresh firm commitments. Profits topped expectations—despite a drop in revenue at standard metal prices. Those standard metal prices, by the way, exclude copper and aluminium volatility, so underlying activity was clearer. Inderes
Operational EBITDA—profit tallied before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation—reached €97 million, up from last year’s €81 million. That’s roughly 15% ahead of the €84 million consensus figure, according to Finwire. But the margin made the bigger splash: 16.0%, blowing past the 13.4% analysts had penciled in.
The fresh orders tell the story behind investors shrugging off the revenue decline. NKT picked up the Western Isles and Spittal-to-Peterhead HVDC projects in Scotland—together totaling roughly €2 billion—and snagged Eastern Green Link 3 in the UK, which added more than €2.2 billion. With those, the Transmission order backlog jumped to €13.5 billion, up from €10.2 billion at the close of 2025.
There wasn’t much spin from management this time. CEO Claes Westerlind noted the two major contract wins drove the “highest quarterly order intake in the history of NKT” and handed the company “extended visibility for the coming years.” For a power-cable supplier, visibility’s not vague—it’s about securing factory schedules, vessel bookings, engineering resources, and locking in project risk further out. Inderes
The quarter showed a weakness the market caught right away. Revenue at standard metal prices dropped to €610 million, down from €630 million. Organic growth slipped to minus 4%. NKT pointed to a slowdown in its Transmission segment, citing reduced activity on the Champlain Hudson Power Express project in the U.S. and less subcontracted work compared to last year.
So, rather than just responding to earnings, the shift seems tied to how investors are valuing upcoming projects. Transmission revenue took a hit. But both Distribution and Grid Solutions & Accessories saw organic growth, with NKT saying margins improved across all three lines. Simply put, the market rewarded tighter execution and an improved business mix, not just big revenue numbers.
The sector played its part. Prysmian picked up 2.35% in Milan, while Nexans climbed 3.08% in Paris—investors sticking with the grid upgrade, interconnector, and high-voltage cable story. NKT’s gains went further, driven by its own numbers: record orders, a best-ever first-quarter EBITDA, and a backlog stretching out for years.
The upside argument looks straightforward—Europe’s grid expansion demands aren’t slowing, and NKT controls rare high-voltage manufacturing. Over 95% of its Transmission backlog ties directly to European transmission system operators. Still, the skeptics have a point: forecasts remain steady at €2.63 billion to €2.78 billion in 2026 revenue (standard metal prices) and €360 million to €410 million in operational EBITDA. That means today’s rally might just be borrowing gains from the future.
Cash, too, remains under stress. Free cash flow came in at negative €92 million—NKT is burning through cash as it pours money into expanding capacity. The company also flagged that supply-chain hiccups tied to the Middle East could push costs higher over the next few quarters. No material financial hit showed up in Q1, but the risk is there. That’s significant, especially with demand for cable running hot even as the challenges of executing projects keep mounting.
After today, buyers face a tougher pitch on valuation. Analyst targets pulled by Investing.com average out to DKK 826.9 over 12 months, with a neutral consensus—and that high-end target of DKK 1,050? The stock hit that range this morning. Bulls insist targets trail the pace of incoming orders. Bears argue the price already bakes in flawless execution.
Rates, though less in the spotlight, linger in the background. On Polymarket, traders are assigning an 82% probability to a 25-basis-point move by the ECB come June 2026—just to be clear, that’s a shift of one one-hundredth of a percent. Typically, higher rates spell trouble for industrials with heavy capital needs. Still, NKT shrugged that off: its hefty order book and stronger margins took center stage today.
The tape’s sending a pretty unambiguous signal right now: NKT is trading more like a tight-supply grid infrastructure play than your typical cyclical manufacturer. That setup carries weight. But it’s also a setup with almost no margin for error.
