NEW YORK, May 16, 2026, 05:17 EDT
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy are discussing a potential stock merger, the Financial Times reported, with a combined company value near $400 billion counting debt, Reuters said.
- Nvidia is set to report earnings Wednesday. Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and TJX have reports out next week. That will put attention back on AI spending and U.S. consumer demand.
- Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are showing low odds for a Fed move in June. Markets have started to price in more risk that rates either stay up or climb later in 2026.
NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy are expected to draw a lot of attention before the open Monday after news of merger talks. The deal, if it goes through, would build one of the biggest U.S. power companies at a time when demand from data centers is shifting how electricity economics work.
NextEra and Dominion are in talks for a stock deal that would value the combined company around $400 billion with debt, the Financial Times reported. Reuters hasn’t confirmed the report and said both firms declined to comment. A deal could come as early as next week, but the situation could still change.
Stocks pulled back hard on Friday, with U.S. indexes tumbling over 1% as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured the AI stock rally. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all dropped sharply. Still, the S&P 500 marked a seventh straight weekly gain. “The market had gotten way ahead of itself,” said Kenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth. Reuters
Fed rate bets steady Monday, with Kalshi showing a 97% implied chance the Federal Reserve sticks with current rates in June. Polymarket put “no change” around 98%. On 2026, Polymarket priced no cuts at 69%, all based on implied probabilities, not direct forecasts. Oddpool
NextEra and Dominion are eyeing bigger scale to match growing power demand. U.S. electricity use hit a record for the second year in 2025 and is set to climb again in the next two years, with AI data centers playing a big part. A combined utility would be better placed to pay for new power plants, grid work and longer-term supply deals.
Nvidia stays in focus for traders chasing the AI move. The chipmaker is set to report Wednesday after the stock climbed 36% since its March low. The Philadelphia semiconductor index is up more than 60% in the same period. Allen Bond at Jensen Investment Management said AI and energy prices are “developments that can move the market ‘one day to the next.’” Reuters
China remains a tangled piece of the story. The U.S. has given the green light to about 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, Reuters said, naming Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. None of the orders have shipped so far. Nvidia had around 95% of China’s top chip market before export curbs and China was roughly 13% of its sales. Chips stocks AMD, Intel and Arm are also seeing attention after semiconductors fell Friday, and Arm is reportedly facing a U.S. antitrust probe tied to licensing.
Retailers are coming up with their results. Walmart reports Thursday. Home Depot, Target and TJX are due too, with consumer spending still making up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. “How resilient is the consumer?” said Yung-Yu Ma at PNC Asset Management. Reuters
Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon may see action after a round of portfolio moves and legal headlines. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took on Microsoft and dropped Alphabet, though Ackman called the sell-off “not a bet against the company.” Amazon is facing a lawsuit from buyers over tariff-related surcharges, which they want refunded after the tariffs were found unlawful. Costco, Nike, and FedEx have also faced similar suits. Reuters
Boeing and GE Aerospace are on the watchlist after China said it would buy 200 Boeing jets, with officials mentioning the deal could reach up to 750 planes. Boeing described the commitment as preliminary; the order is not on its backlog yet. The agreement could help Boeing catch up to Airbus in China, but Boeing shares fell on Friday after the 200-plane number landed below what some expected.
Berkshire Hathaway moves lift Delta Air Lines, Macy’s, Alphabet, Amazon, UnitedHealth, Visa and Mastercard. A filing showed Berkshire took a $2.65 billion Delta stake, added some Macy’s, and bought more Alphabet. The company cut or dumped other holdings. Delta shares climbed in late trading, but higher fuel costs could still weigh on airlines.
Dexcom and Figma also made news. Dexcom will bring in two independent directors and shake up a board committee after talks with Elliott Investment Management. Elliott’s Marc Steinberg said Dexcom has a “clear path” to margin expansion. Figma lifted its revenue outlook for the year as first-quarter sales jumped 46%. Reuters
Monday’s watchlist sits on shaky ground. The NextEra-Dominion deal could still fall apart or get stuck with regulators, Nvidia’s sales in China are caught between U.S. and Chinese rules, and retailers might show that households are feeling new pressure from higher prices. Oil, yields, and the Fed matter plenty. They drive the tape.
