NEW YORK, June 9, 2026, 09:01 EDT
J.M. Smucker shares rose before Tuesday’s opening bell after the Folgers coffee and Jif peanut butter maker beat fourth-quarter profit estimates and projected higher fiscal 2027 earnings, even as it warned that annual sales would fall. The stock was quoted at $105.10 in extended trading at 09:01 a.m. EDT, up 3.16%; the NYSE core session was due to open at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.
The rally is not clean. Investors are trying to decide whether Smucker can turn lower sales into better profit as the packaged-food industry shifts away from price hikes and back toward volume growth — selling more units — after a long stretch of inflation-driven pricing.
Smucker said net sales rose 6% to $2.27 billion in the quarter ended April 30, while adjusted earnings per share — profit excluding some items — rose 20% to $2.77. Net price realization, or the benefit from pricing after discounts and promotions, added 10 percentage points to comparable sales, while volume/mix cut 4 percentage points.
Wall Street had expected adjusted profit of $2.64 a share, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. The company’s fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings forecast of $9.75 to $10.25 a share came in above the average estimate of $9.79, but its sales forecast called for a 3% to 4% decline, against analysts’ expectation for about 1% growth.
Chief Executive Mark Smucker said the company entered fiscal 2027 with “meaningful momentum” and would focus on “organic volume growth,” profit improvement and a “disciplined approach to capital deployment.” The statement puts the burden on execution, not just pricing. PR Newswire
Coffee carried much of the quarter. U.S. retail coffee sales rose 12%, helped by a 21 percentage-point pricing lift, though volume/mix fell 8 percentage points as Dunkin’ and Folgers declined and Café Bustelo partly offset the drop. The company said higher costs, including commodity costs and tariffs, limited segment profit growth.
Management also framed lower coffee costs as a mixed event. In prepared remarks, Mark Smucker said green coffee deflation would be a “headwind to net sales” but a “tailwind to profitability,” because lower input costs can reduce reported revenue when passed back to shoppers while helping margins. MarketBeat
The company pointed to a smaller group of growth brands to carry the next leg: Uncrustables, Café Bustelo, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone. In prepared remarks, Smucker said Uncrustables had become a $1 billion brand, Café Bustelo grew 39% in fiscal 2026 to about $550 million in sales, and Meow Mix gained share in dry cat food.
But the downside case is plain enough. If shoppers trade further into store brands, if GLP-1 weight-loss drugs keep changing eating habits, or if tariffs and commodity swings worsen, Smucker’s lower-sales/higher-profit equation could crack. The company said its guidance reflected a “dynamic and evolving external environment” and did not assume effects from new tariffs, tariff changes or tariff refunds. Reuters
The pressure is not Smucker’s alone. Reuters noted that peer Campbell’s had reaffirmed its annual forecast after trimming it earlier in the year and flagged added strain on consumers, a reminder that the packaged-food group is still fighting weak household sentiment and value-seeking behavior.
Smucker came into the report on soft footing. Its shares closed Monday down 1.71% at $101.77, underperforming the broader market, while Kraft Heinz rose 3.41%, Mondelez slipped 0.71% and General Mills was little changed, MarketWatch reported.
For now, investors appear to be giving Smucker credit for the earnings beat, cash flow and debt reduction. The open will test whether that is enough to overcome a sales guide that says the next year will be smaller on the top line, even if management thinks it can be richer at the bottom.
