Today: 25 June 2026
NVIDIA Corporation Stock Faces a New Test as Pentagon AI Deal Meets China Server Squeeze
25 June 2026
2 mins read

Nvidia trades close to $200 ahead of Russell rebalance with $24 billion per dollar in play

NEW YORK, June 25, 2026, 06:04 (EDT)

  • NVIDIA stock traded at $201.78 in premarket Thursday, adding 1.4% from Wednesday’s $199.00 close.
  • A $1 swing in the stock is tied to about $24.4 billion in equity value now, using the current quoted market value and share count.
  • Nvidia will become the biggest stock in the Russell indexes after Friday’s Russell reconstitution, a move that could drive big index volume at the end of the day.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) traded up ahead of the bell Thursday, adding 1.4% premarket, but the market seemed to care more about the dollar value moving with each price change.

Nvidia ended Wednesday at $199.00, giving it a market cap of about $4.85 trillion. With that share count, each $1 swing in Nvidia stock means about $24.4 billion up or down in market value. A premarket quote of $201.78 suggested Nvidia was poised to add $68 billion before Thursday’s open.

FTSE Russell’s semi-annual reconstitution lands after the U.S. close on Friday. Nvidia now tops the Russell universe with a market cap of $4.8 trillion, up 82.5% over 12 months, according to FTSE Russell. The 10 largest companies in the index together are at $26.4 trillion, up 48% from when the list changed a year ago.

FTSE Russell reports about $12.2 trillion tracks or is invested using Russell U.S. indexes. The June 2025 reconstitution saw $217.2 billion shift at the close on NYSE and Nasdaq. Nvidia is now the biggest stock in both the Russell 3000 and Russell 1000 as this Friday’s event plays out.

The rebalance won’t just hit small caps. T. Rowe Price said the June 2026 reconstitution could increase AI names in Russell large- and mid-cap growth indexes, taking some out of value and small-cap indexes. Nvidia’s moves may affect style funds along with broader index products.

Chip names also pulled the stock higher. Nasdaq futures added over 2% after fresh forecasts from Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) suggested strong demand for AI gear. Micron said customers signed up for $22 billion worth of memory chips. Qualcomm is looking for $15 billion in data-center sales by 2029, according to Reuters.

“Micron’s earnings have provided fresh reassurance,” Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn told Reuters. But Swissquote Bank’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya, also a senior market analyst, said a stronger inflation number “could further embolden Fed hawks.” Reuters

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the company’s annual meeting Wednesday that “Vera Rubin is in full production.” Huang also told shareholders Nvidia will return at least half of its free cash flow to shareholders this year and going forward. Early vote totals showed all 10 board nominees were reelected. Final numbers are expected in an SEC filing in the next four business days. StockAnalysis

Nvidia’s most recent quarter put a bottom under the stock. The chipmaker said revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 hit $81.6 billion, up 85% from last year, with data-center revenue of $75.2 billion, up 92%. Nvidia also signed off on another $80 billion for buybacks and lifted its quarterly dividend to 25 cents per share.

Nvidia is now the revenue leader in data-center Ethernet switches, Business Insider said Thursday, citing IDC. The company pulled in $2.1 billion in first-quarter sales from that category, enough for a 21.5% share of the $10 billion market. Nvidia’s data-center networking revenue hit $15 billion, tripling from last year, according to the report, which quoted CFO Colette Kress.

Nvidia’s next real test is the $200 level. If the stock stays above $200 through Friday’s close, index demand will have to meet a price where small shifts mean billions in market cap. The PCE inflation numbers drop at 8:30 a.m. ET and could put more rate risk on the table before then.

Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global financial markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and previously worked in investment analysis before moving into financial journalism. His daily coverage focuses on the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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