NEW YORK, June 29, 2026, 06:04 EDT
- Nasdaq 100 futures outpaced U.S. index futures, up 76 basis points more than Dow futures in early trading.
- The rally came after a week where equal-weight and small-cap stocks outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500.
- Cboe data put the QQQ-SPX one-month implied-volatility spread up at 11%, the highest in four years.
- U.S. markets are in premarket. Regular hours start at 9:30 a.m. ET. Friday, July 3, markets are closed for Independence Day.
U.S. stock index futures moved higher early Monday, with the main read coming from a rally gap. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.12% to 29,696.00. S&P 500 futures added 0.74%. Dow futures gained 0.36%, according to Markets Insider at about 4:52 a.m. ET. Nasdaq’s premarket trading runs from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET, with regular hours from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Markets will be closed July 3 for the Independence Day holiday.
| Contract | Level | Change | Move | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones futures | 52,396.00 | up 187.00 | up 0.36% | 04:52 ET |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,456.25 | up 54.50 | up 0.74% | 04:52 ET |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,696.00 | up 327.75 | up 1.12% | 04:52 ET |
| Nasdaq 100 over Dow | — | — | 76 basis points higher | Based on quotes |
| Nasdaq 100 over S&P 500 | — | — | 38 basis points higher | Based on quotes |
The spread is key since it’s going the other way from last week’s breadth move. NYSE’s latest market note showed the S&P 500 dropped 2% last week. The S&P equal-weight index climbed 1.5%, beating by about 350 basis points. The S&P 600 jumped more than 3%, with seven out of 11 sectors up for the week.
| Last week | Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | down 2.0% |
| S&P 500 equal weight | up 1.5% |
| Equal-weight gap over S&P 500 | ahead by 350 bps |
| S&P 600 | gain of more than 3% |
| S&P 600 and Russell 2000 year-to-date | up 20% |
| Equal-weight index year-to-date | higher by 11% |
Traders are still paying up to hedge tech. Options data from Cboe showed equity vol leading gains across assets last week, with VIX jumping over six points to 21.5 week-over-week. The QQQ-SPX one-month implied volatility spread hit 11%, the highest in four years. Cboe posted VIX spot at 18.41 as of June 29.
This morning isn’t showing a clear risk-on tone. Futures point to buyers coming back to Nasdaq. Still, the volatility spread shows traders are paying more to hedge Nasdaq than they have in four years.
Stocks got a quick push from Middle East news. Reuters said a U.S. official expects Washington and Tehran to de-escalate and restart talks, following several days of fighting. “Supporting hopes that it’ll do whatever is necessary to get a deal done,” said Kyle Rodda at Capital.com. Some AI worries stuck around, with Apple NASDAQ:AAPL lagging its Magnificent Seven peers in premarket trading after dropping 4.8% last week. Fabien Yip at IG said “volumes underpinning record chip margins look increasingly fragile.” Reuters
U.S. equity funds saw $3.53 billion pulled in the week to June 24, snapping a week earlier $37.63 billion surge in net buying, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters. Tech funds had close to $20 billion in outflows, flipping from $21.46 billion of inflows the week before. One futures pop isn’t drawing investors back to the tech trade just yet.
| Flow measure | Prior week | Week to June 24 |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. equity funds | +$37.63 bln | -$3.53 bln |
| Technology funds | +$21.46 bln | Almost -$20 bln |
| Bond funds | — | +$7.33 bln |
| Money market funds | — | -$25.74 bln |
SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX climbed 1.2% before the bell after Nasdaq said it will add the stock to the Nasdaq 100 on July 7. J.P. Morgan NYSE:JPM put expected passive inflows at $4.3 billion. Michael Field, chief equity market strategist at Morningstar NASDAQ:MORN, told Reuters, “We think the stock is overvalued.” Reuters
Viridian Therapeutics NASDAQ:VRDN rose 12.7% after the FDA cleared Lumvoa to treat thyroid eye disease. Lumvoa is Viridian’s first approved drug, the company said, and it will hold a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Rates remain a drag on sentiment as macro data comes in. A Reuters poll out June 26 said over three-quarters of economists expect the Fed to keep rates steady through the rest of 2026. Markets are still pricing some chance of a hike. “Holding rather than hiking is the most appropriate stance,” Vanguard’s senior U.S. economist Josh Hirt said. Reuters
Markets face the next big test before the break, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to release the June jobs report on Thursday, July 2, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
