NEW YORK, June 30, 2026, 06:03 EDT
- Dow futures were up 67 points as of 5:24 a.m. EDT. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded just above flat.
- The Dow ended Monday past 52,000 for its first close above that level, while the Nasdaq rallied 2.07%.
- Small caps trailed early, as iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) was only up 0.06% in premarket ETF action.
- Traders still see rate risk. They put the odds of a Fed hike in September at roughly 64%, CME FedWatch data showed, according to Reuters.
U.S. stock futures ticked higher early Tuesday, but traders didn’t keep up Monday’s big technology rally. The key move was the gap between cash trading and futures: the Nasdaq Composite jumped over 500 points Monday, but as of 5:24 a.m. EDT, Nasdaq 100 futures added just 14.25 points. Exchanges in the U.S. were on track for a regular session. According to the NYSE’s 2026 holiday schedule, the next market closure is July 3 for Independence Day.
| Contract | Price | Change | Change % | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones futures | 52,639.00 | up 67.00 | up 0.13% | 05:24 EDT |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,503.50 | up 3.25 | up 0.04% | 05:24 EDT |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 30,067.00 | up 14.25 | up 0.05% | 05:24 EDT |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 306.63 points, or 0.59%, at 52,182.74 Monday. The S&P 500 finished higher by 86.41 points, or 1.18%, to 7,440.43. The Nasdaq Composite gained 522.53 points, or 2.07%, at 25,820.14. Reuters reported Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL jumped 4.8% in its Dow debut.
Premarket ETF action was slow and tight. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:DIA) traded ahead of the Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) just before 6 a.m., data from Investing.com showed.
| Premarket ETF | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:DIA) | 522.70 | +1.02 | +0.20% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ | 724.99 | +0.91 | +0.13% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) | 741.81 | +0.81 | +0.11% |
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) | 299.15 | +0.18 | +0.06% |
The last session of the first half opens with the indexes strong but without heavy premarket buying. LPL Research puts the S&P 500 up 12.6% for the quarter. Both the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 gained more than 20%. On June 25, AAII bullish sentiment stood at 44.9%, with a four-week average of 38.2%, near its historical norm, according to LPL.
Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA traded as the most active name in premarket, down 0.94%. NVIDIA Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA was up 0.11%, Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT added 0.35%, Applied Materials Inc. NASDAQ:AMAT rose 2.30%. Intel Corp. NASDAQ:INTC dipped 0.22%.
| Stock | Last | Change % | Premarket volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA | 407.98 | -0.94% | 256.27K |
| NVIDIA Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA | 195.18 | +0.11% | 486.23K |
| Applied Materials Inc. NASDAQ:AMAT | 710.59 | +2.30% | 124.86K |
| Intel Corp. NASDAQ:INTC | 131.43 | -0.22% | 472.6K |
| Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT | 369.87 | +0.35% | 121.93K |
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, told Reuters after Monday’s rally that the market is “preparing for earnings season.” Reuters said most S&P 500 companies are expected to start reporting Q2 results after mid-July. Reuters
The bigger worry is over valuations and rates. Reuters said BofA Global Research’s Bubble Risk Indicator reads 0.91 for the PHLX Semiconductor Sector and 0.82 for tech. Oliver Shale at Ruffer called the risk measures “flashing amber.” JJ Kinahan at Cboe Global Markets said AI suppliers are the “picks and shovels,” but buyers still need to show the spending pays off. Reuters
LPL’s positioning indicator slipped to +0.93, down from about +2 three weeks ago, but margin debt reached a record $1.42 trillion in May, up 54% from a year earlier. Brian Booe and Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL said conditions now resemble a mature bull market that’s “due for a pause.” LPL Financial
Gold faced more pressure from rates. Reuters reported spot gold was headed for its biggest quarterly drop since April 2013, with traders now betting on three Fed hikes this year and about a 64% chance for a hike in September. Edward Meir at Marex blamed “high interest rate expectations” and a firm dollar. Reuters
Markets face a packed schedule after the open Tuesday. MarketWatch noted the June Chicago Business Barometer is set for 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by June consumer confidence at 10 a.m. ET, with a median forecast at 94.6, and May job openings at 10 a.m. ET, expected at 7.3 million. Reuters reported Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak Wednesday at the ECB forum in Sintra, ahead of the monthly U.S. jobs report out Thursday.
