NEW YORK, July 1, 2026, 16:01 EDT
- IREN lost 5.4% late in the session. CoreWeave and Nebius fell more than 14% after Bloomberg reported Meta could sell surplus AI computing power.
- IREN was trading around $43.28, which works out to roughly 4.7x its reported $3.1 billion in annualized run-rate revenue under contract.
- Jefferies set a $79 price target on the stock, signaling 82.5% upside from the snapshot close and valuing it at about 8.5x contracted ARR.
IREN Ltd NASDAQ:IREN dropped 5.4% to $43.28 late Wednesday as shares of AI cloud infrastructure companies sank. The move followed reports that Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META is working on a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity. Quiver Quantitative said there was no obvious new press release or SEC filing from IREN connected to a negative event as of July 1.
Reuters said Meta’s plans were still taking shape and might be different later. Meta would not give Reuters a comment. CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV dropped 14.3% and Nebius Group NASDAQ:NBIS slid 15.7% in the same session, both seen as more exposed to the neocloud theme.
“Adding Meta’s capacity will probably hit neoclouds more than the big hyperscalers,” said Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson, to Reuters. Reuters
The headline for IREN isn’t just the day’s fall. At the snapshot price, IREN had a $14.43 billion market cap, about 4.7x the $3.1 billion in ARR it reported in May. If the stock gets to Jefferies’ $79 price target, that’s a market value of $26.3 billion, or about 8.5x that ARR under contract.
| IREN valuation check | Figure |
|---|---|
| Latest share price | $43.28 |
| Current market cap | $14.43 billion |
| Disclosed contracted ARR | $3.1 billion |
| Market cap / contracted ARR | 4.7x |
| Jefferies price target | $79 |
| Potential return to Jefferies target | 82.5% |
| Market cap at $79 target | $26.3 billion |
| Market cap / ARR at $79 | 8.5x |
| IREN ARR target for end-2026 | $3.7 billion |
| Current market cap / 2026 ARR target | 3.9x |
Selling hit most names, though the impact varied. Meta added 9.1% after the release, but most AI-focused cloud and bitcoin mining stocks reversed. Core Scientific NASDAQ:CORZ, Cipher Digital NASDAQ:CIFR, and TeraWulf NASDAQ:WULF dropped. The latest trades shown here came through at about 15:46-15:47 ET.
| Company | Ticker | Role in trade | Price | Intraday move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN Ltd | NASDAQ:IREN | AI cloud, ex-bitcoin mining | $43.28 | -5.4% | 35.6 mln |
| CoreWeave | NASDAQ:CRWV | Neocloud | $85.34 | -14.3% | 53.7 mln |
| Nebius Group | NASDAQ:NBIS | Neocloud | $232.79 | -15.7% | 26.9 mln |
| Core Scientific | NASDAQ:CORZ | Runs AI centers, bitcoin mining | $23.84 | -6.8% | 14.8 mln |
| Cipher Digital | NASDAQ:CIFR | AI center, bitcoin mining | $22.97 | -6.3% | 24.1 mln |
| TeraWulf | NASDAQ:WULF | Data center, bitcoin miner | $23.56 | -4.6% | 25.9 mln |
| Meta Platforms | NASDAQ:META | Possible new compute seller | $614.65 | +9.1% | 38.4 mln |
This matters because if big cloud providers start selling extra GPU cloud capacity instead of just buying, the multiple on contracted AI infrastructure revenue could fall. For IREN, the bull case depends on converting power, data centers, and funded GPUs into paid cloud revenue before pricing pressure hits contracts.
IREN said in May it was still expecting to hit 480 megawatts of capacity in 2026, with all of that spoken for by contracts. Management also said the $3.1 billion of ARR on the books includes deals that won’t begin generating revenue until GPUs are delivered and up and running. “The world is structurally short compute,” co-founder and co-CEO Daniel Roberts said at the time. GlobeNewswire
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT is a key part of the equation. IREN said in November it signed a five-year, $9.7 billion GPU cloud deal with Microsoft, giving it access to NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA GB300 GPUs. Dell Technologies NYSE:DELL will supply hardware and related gear for around $5.8 billion.
IREN said it closed a $3.65 billion investment-grade GPU financing facility on June 1 tied to its Microsoft AI cloud contract. The company reported the debt carried a blended cost of 6.00%. With prepayments from customers, the financing covered about 96% of the $5.81 billion GPU capex for Microsoft, for an average funding cost of 3.31%.
Jefferies started IREN at Buy with a $79 target on June 18, GuruFocus said. Analysts cited IREN’s move away from bitcoin mining toward AI cloud and highlighted its roughly 6 GW powered land bank. Shares finished Wednesday still down 45.2% from the target.
Reuters said in November that Microsoft can end its contract with IREN if IREN fails to meet delivery deadlines. That puts schedule risk front and center for the stock. At the current price, the market is paying under 5x contracted ARR, but that all hinges on GPUs showing up, data centers opening, and customers filling the space.
Source note: Yahoo threw a 429 error and I couldn’t access Forbes because it redirected to a blocked page, so I left out any facts I couldn’t confirm from those sources.
