NEW YORK, July 4, 2026, 16:06 (EDT)
- U.S. markets stayed closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, with Constellation finishing Thursday at $239.25, down 9.4% in the shortened week.
- The stock trades 14.2% under the $279 price Constellation set in its June block buyback. A Calpine lock-up expired for half the related shares on June 30.
- The drop put the stock 42% under its 52-week high. Google Finance still lists the average analyst target 53% above where shares ended Thursday.
U.S. exchanges were closed Friday for the July 4 holiday, so trading in Constellation Energy Corporation NASDAQ:CEG wrapped up Thursday. The week didn’t look like a typical utilities move. CEG dropped 9.4% from last Friday’s close. In the same stretch, State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) gained 2.2%, while Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU) lost 1.0%.
Constellation ended Wednesday at $239.25, up 1.16% for the session. Still, shares traded close to Monday’s intraday low at $228.63, which also marked the 52-week low. Trading volume reached 8.69 million shares, more than twice the 65-day average, according to WSJ market data.
| Date | Close | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 26 | $264.02 | — | 3.92 mln |
| June 29 | $259.32 | -1.8% | 3.03 mln |
| June 30 | $248.37 | -4.2% | 5.11 mln |
| July 1 | $236.50 | -4.8% | 8.69 mln |
| July 2 | $239.25 | +1.2% | 4.27 mln |
Timing the market is key here. In June, selling shareholders offloaded 11 million Constellation shares in a secondary offering. The company didn’t sell any of its own stock and didn’t take in cash, but it stepped in and bought 2 million shares from the underwriters for roughly $558 million. That works out to about $279 a share. At Thursday’s close, those shares were $39.75 under water compared to what Constellation paid. Multiply that by 2 million, and the company’s out by about $79.5 million on the deal.
| June share event | Figure |
|---|---|
| Holder shares sold | 11.0 mln |
| Underwriters option | 1.35 mln |
| Shares bought by Constellation | 2.0 mln |
| Constellation payout | About $558 mln |
| Repurchase price, implied | About $279 |
| Close on July 2 | $239.25 |
| Discount to implied repurchase | -14.2% |
This isn’t an accounting loss. Stock buybacks cut the number of shares. For investors, it’s a real measure in tracking if Constellation’s cash returns are keeping up with new shares hitting the market. The same SEC filing showed half of the shares for Calpine holders are set to come off lock-up on June 30. The rest unlocks June 30, 2027. This doesn’t confirm anyone is selling, but it does set a new supply date next to the week’s spike in volume.
The gap versus the market stayed wide.
| Instrument | July 2 close | Week move |
|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy NASDAQ:CEG | $239.25 | down 9.4% |
| Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU) | $45.76 | off 1.0% |
| State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) | $744.78 | up 2.2% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ | $712.60 | gained 0.9% |
Analyst price targets remain far higher than the current price. Google Finance lists 15 analysts on Constellation, with 12 buys and three holds. The average 12-month target comes to $366.40, or 53.1% above where shares ended Thursday. Wells Fargo & Co. NYSE:WFC left its $516 target unchanged on July 2, Citigroup NYSE:C kept $297 on July 1. Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS stayed at $364 as of June 24.
| Analyst firm | Rating shown | Target | Upside vs $239.25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Buy | $516 | +115.7% |
| Citigroup | Hold | $297 | +24.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $364 | +52.1% |
| Street average | — | $366.40 | +53.1% |
Constellation hasn’t pulled back its pitch. In a post from July 2, the company laid out almost 10 gigawatts of new generation in the pipeline. It also said there’s room for 1,000 megawatts in uprates across its nuclear plants. Constellation expects to send 835 megawatts back onto the grid from the Crane Clean Energy Center, where the power will supply Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT.
Constellation is sticking to execution. In May, the company posted first-quarter adjusted operating earnings of $2.74 per share and kept its 2026 adjusted operating earnings outlook at $11 to $12 per share. “Our focus is on execution,” CEO Joe Dominguez said at the time. CFO Shane Smith added that Constellation was “affirming our full-year guidance.” Business Wire
Crane is still the main regulatory question. In June, Reuters said a FERC waiver moved the old Three Mile Island unit back to Constellation’s 2027 restart timeline, after PJM had first suggested 2031. Dominguez told investors in March that they still plan to restart in 2027. Melius Research’s James West told Reuters that “PJM clarity as the unlock.” Reuters
Utility stocks got a lift as the broader market offered support. On Thursday, Reuters said the Dow closed at a record, the S&P 500 was unchanged for the session, and the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. For the week, the S&P 500 added 1.8%. “The June jobs report takes the pressure off the Fed, at least for now,” 50 Park Investments CEO Adam Sarhan told Reuters. Reuters
U.S. markets are back open Monday, July 6. Investors watch the Fed and start of earnings season, Reuters reports, after tech stocks wavered to kick off the second half. Constellation will hold its Q2 earnings call Aug. 6, 10 a.m. EDT.
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