NEW YORK, July 12, 2026, 13:28 EDT
Bitcoin hovered close to $64,100 on Sunday after new U.S. strikes targeted Iranian missile and air-defense systems and boats near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. said the waterway stayed open. Iran said it was shut. Crypto traded first as markets watched for signs of more conflict.
That mood gets tested as crude, equity and government bond markets open up again after being closed for most of the weekend. Bitcoin was among the few major assets trading as the conflict developed. Ether added about 2% over the week, but Solana dropped 5%. Risk appetite stayed selective, not broadly bullish.
Fund flows didn’t give much relief. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which track the coin without investors owning it, took in $197.4 million for the week ended Friday. That’s their first weekly inflow since early May but only covers 2.4% of the $8.26 billion pulled out in the prior eight weeks.
The rebound stayed tight. Monday brought in $265.69 million, more than the total for the full week. BlackRock NYSE:BLK’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $86.83 million, nearly all of Friday’s $90.44 million inflow. Volume for the week was the weakest for any full five-day stretch since October 2024. Ether ETFs picked up some ground, recovering around 7% of what they lost over the last eight weeks.
Money kept shifting into other spots. U.S. technology-sector funds pulled in $9.71 billion in the week ended July 8, according to data. That’s about 49 times what bitcoin ETFs took in. Demand for artificial-intelligence tools has been boosting earnings forecasts. The numbers aren’t a perfect match, but it shows how crypto is still fighting for fresh investor cash.
Corporate treasuries put more bitcoin in the market. Strategy NASDAQ:MSTR dumped 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million from June 29 to July 5, saying it needed the cash to pay distributions on preferred shares and refill reserves. Empery Digital (NASDAQ:EMPD) said Friday it sold 1,400 bitcoin since May 7 for $87.1 million. The company said the sale covered debt, bought a property, paid legal bills and funded operations.
| Capital signal | Amount | Measurement window |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. spot bitcoin ETF saw inflows | +$197.4 million | July 6–10 |
| Inflow into U.S. tech funds | +$9.71 billion | Week through July 8 |
| Strategy bitcoin sale pulled in | $216.0 million | June 29–July 5 |
| Empery sold bitcoin for | $87.1 million | May 7–July 10 |
The periods don’t match up, so this table doesn’t actually show net market supply. But together, the two companies reported $303.1 million in bitcoin sales, which is $105.7 million more than the week’s ETF inflow. Empery is planning to convert a Midwest property into an AI data center. Co-CEO Ryan Lane said the firm will “continue to allocate capital to similar hyperscaler-anchored opportunities,” meaning projects tied to major cloud providers. CoinDesk
Markets face a packed macro calendar this week, with June consumer inflation hitting Tuesday along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before the House. Producer prices, Warsh’s Senate testimony, and the Fed’s Beige Book come in on Wednesday. June retail sales are set for Thursday. A Wall Street Journal poll sees headline consumer inflation slowing to 3.8% from 4.2%, with core CPI — stripping out food and energy — dropping to 2.8% from 2.9%.
| When, EDT | Event | What crypto investors will test |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, July 13 | Crude and U.S. rates markets react to the weekend escalation | If bitcoin can hold steady while oil or bond yields move up |
| Tuesday, 08:30 | June consumer-price index report | Where rate bets and the dollar go |
| Tuesday, 10:00 | Warsh in House testimony | Just how tough the Fed’s stance on inflation is |
| Wednesday, 08:30–14:00 | Producer price numbers, Warsh Senate testimony, Beige Book | If inflation data and the surveys back up the CPI move |
| Thursday, 08:30 | June advance retail sales | Can consumers keep up with tighter financial conditions |
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week that “inflation has been taking off,” putting more focus on Tuesday’s data ahead of the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting. Treasury yields finished higher last week, making things tougher for bitcoin. The token pays no income and often has trouble when Treasury yields rise and investors can get more from government bonds. Reuters
Vikram Subburaj, CEO at Giottus, said the bounce from the recent low isn’t a clear bullish reversal yet. He warned traders not to get aggressive until bitcoin gets above $67,000 and ETF demand picks up.
But that cautious take could fall apart fast. Corporate sale windows don’t line up with the ETF trading week, and if inflation comes in lower, crude prices hold steady, and more funds move in, that $303.1 million gap could soon be old news. The risk is if shipping snarls hit again, oil and yields jump, or CPI runs hot, rate-hike talk returns, and demand drops—then $60,000 might show up again.
Breadth is the real signal this week, more than price. A move over $65,000 with inflows hitting multiple ETFs would look like stronger demand. If it’s just BlackRock’s product leading again, with listed holders selling into the move, the bounce is shaky.
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