NEW YORK, July 14, 2026, 19:07 (EDT)
Wall Street will eye a 5.8-point gap in Wednesday’s premarket as producer price data comes in. In May, stage 1 intermediate demand prices—inputs at the start of the production chain—jumped 12.3% on the year. That compared to a 6.5% rise for final demand selling prices. The June PPI is set for 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists see no monthly change after May’s 1.1% surge.
The split is important as analysts now look for S&P 500 companies to post 23.4% earnings growth for the second quarter. That’s up from the 15.2% forecast at the start of the year. Companies can try to keep margins by raising prices or cutting costs, but it’s tougher when input costs rise faster than end prices. Tuesday’s consumer inflation report gave some relief, mostly thanks to a 5.7% slide in energy and a 9.7% drop in gasoline. Oil has rebounded since, up about 2% to a one-month high.
The CPI number got a cautious nod from investors. The S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.90%, and the Dow inched up just 0.02%. About 16.38 billion shares traded, running 24% under the 20-day average—light volume for those gains. Rate futures put the odds that the Fed stands pat in July at 83.4%, up from 58.3% on Monday. “It gives the Fed cover, for now,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services. Reuters
Looking at both numbers, the PPI details look more important than the headline. The month-on-month and year-on-year spreads shown here are calculated from Bureau of Labor Statistics data. These are not technical margin figures for companies—the indexes track different things.
| Gauge | Monthly change | Annual change | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 intermediate demand, May | +3.2% | +12.3% | This is the first step in the production chain. Biggest monthly jump recorded for this series. |
| Final-demand PPI, May | +1.1% | +6.5% | Final demand prices. Street expects flat in June. |
| Calculated stage 1 spread | +2.1 points | +5.8 points | Upstream moved faster. Not a direct margin read. |
| Consumer prices, June | -0.4% | +3.5% | Headline inflation cooled, mostly thanks to falling energy. |
A flat PPI headline on its own won’t clear things up. Core producer prices are expected up 0.3% after May’s 0.8%. For June, economists are looking for a 0.2% core PCE monthly gain, with the annual number at 3.3%. That could shift after the producer data hits Wednesday. If stage 1 prices stay high, focus may go from Fed timing to how strong earnings are.
The earnings bar just got higher. International Business Machines NYSE:IBM dropped 25.2% on Tuesday after it said second-quarter revenue will come in below expectations, while the broad market was up. A positive macro headline didn’t help stocks with weak outlooks, as the IBM move made clear.
The pre-open test is getting squeezed into under eight hours as three releases hit. ASML Holding NASDAQ:ASML will update first, then Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS and later the PPI.
| Catalyst | Time, EDT | Comparison investors will make |
|---|---|---|
| ASML results | 1:00 a.m. | Street is going for €8.8 billion in revenue and €2.61 billion net profit. People want to see if the full-year sales forecast moves up to €36 billion-€40 billion. |
| Morgan Stanley results | About 7:30 a.m. | The focus is if trading and investment-banking numbers keep pace with a big jump from a top Wall Street competitor. |
| June PPI | 8:30 a.m. | Consensus stays at 0.0% headline and +0.3% core, after May’s 1.1% and 0.8%. |
Morgan Stanley goes up against a tough bar after Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS said equities revenue soared 72% to a record $7.42 billion, with investment-banking fees climbing 55% to $3.4 billion. Global investment-banking revenue gained 24% in the first half, hitting $61.4 billion. “Momentum has accelerated throughout our businesses,” said Goldman CEO David Solomon. Now, Morgan Stanley needs to prove the boom wasn’t just a Goldman story. Reuters
ASML looks like a different valuation story. Shares are up 67% this year, and the stock trades at 49 times projected 2027 earnings. Analysts see second-quarter revenue rising 14% and net profit up 8.8%. Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini said he expects a “beat-and-raise earnings report.” Investors are watching manufacturing capacity out to 2027 and China, which could make up as much as 20% of sales this year. Some say an upgrade will need to be more than marginal to move the stock. Reuters
The setup could still crack even with PPI in line. U.S.-Iran flare-ups have sent oil to a one-month high. The national average for U.S. gasoline climbed to $3.86 a gallon from $3.79 last week. A hotter core PPI and another jump in energy prices could push bond yields up and hit expensive tech stocks. If ASML or Morgan Stanley only matches forecasts, even a soft PPI might not help. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said the CPI report was “a relief, but not enough to put it at ease” for the Fed. Reuters
The Fed’s Beige Book comes out at 2 p.m. EDT for another look at prices and demand. Before the bell, traders will watch for signs that early-stage producer pressure is easing and that earnings remain strong. A soft PPI combined with two earnings beats could give Tuesday’s rally more room. But if either misses, the thin rally could be at risk.
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