AMSTERDAM, July 16, 2026, 17:27 CEST — U.S. market open.
- ASML was up 0.3% at $1,820.63 as of 11:11 a.m. EDT.
- Based on guidance, early Q4 sales look to come in around €14.4 billion.
- The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 3.8% as of 9:50 a.m. EDT.
ASML’s U.S. shares managed a 0.3% uptick to $1,820.63 on Thursday, even as chip stocks slumped. The Philadelphia semiconductor index slid 3.8%.
The key takeaway is in the fresh full-year outlook. With the midpoint at €44 billion, Q4 sales need to come in around €14.4 billion. That’s based on first-half results and the midpoint for Q3 guidance.
The implied quarter is set to come in 25% higher than the midpoint of Q3. That number would beat the record fourth quarter of 2025 by 48%. Demand isn’t the only question now—delivery matters too.
ASML posted second-quarter sales of €9.326 billion and net income came in at €2.918 billion, topping analyst forecasts. The company raised 2026 sales guidance to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion. Gross margin guidance was also upped to 54%-56%.
| Period | Sales (€bn) | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 actual | 9.718 | — |
| Q1 2026 actual | 8.767 | -9.8% |
| Q2 2026 actual | 9.326 | +6.4% |
| Q3 2026 guidance midpoint | 11.500 | +23.3% |
| Q4 2026 preliminary implied midpoint | 14.407 | +25.3% |
The Q4 forecast is the €44 billion annual midpoint minus €18.093 billion in first-half sales and the €11.5 billion Q3 midpoint. Rounded percentages.
The sales mix is helping the ramp. Memory end-use sales for the first half hit €6.4 billion, about 76% of that segment’s 2025 total. Logic is at 40% of its 2025 figure. This points to a broader equipment upturn.
ASML remains the only maker of EUV lithography machines. The company is targeting a 30% bump in 2027 low-NA EUV system output, from a base of roughly 65 units. DUV immersion capacity, now close to 130, is slated for the same percentage increase. CEO Christophe Fouquet said first-half orders stayed “extremely strong.” ASML
External capex plans are also pointed up. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM) bumped 2026 capital spending to a range of $60 billion-$64 billion. CEO C.C. Wei said the company still sees “very high” conviction in the AI cycle. Reuters
Still, the chip sector saw selling. TSMC’s U.S. shares dropped 2.2%. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) slid 2.9%, and Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) was off 1.3%. ASML was one of the few names in the group to stay positive.
ASML’s margin outlook still rests on how shipments shape up in the near term, even as pricing power stays in focus. CFO Roger Dassen said the company enjoys “better pricing power” with EUV tool slots mostly booked solid through 2027. Reuters
Analyst Michael Roeg called it “blow-out results across the board.” Still, the stock barely moved. The reaction shows investors aren’t fully buying in yet. Reuters
Risks: ASML’s sales each quarter swing with shipment schedules and customer acceptance. Supply limits, slower orders or more strict China export rules may move revenue. The company expects China to make up about 20% of 2026 sales.
