NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 11:24 a.m. EDT
- The stock gained 2.4% to $56.86 in early Nasdaq action.
- Early spread figures imply about 72% odds for a $60.50 result.
- The plan puts PayPal at close to nine times projected 2026 free cash flow, according to Reuters.
PayPal Holdings NASDAQ:PYPL was pricing in about 72% odds for a $60.50 deal. Shares were trading at $56.86 just after 11 a.m. EDT.
The stock is trading 6.4% under the stated bid. Getting back to Tuesday’s close of $47.37 means another 16.7% move.
The spread makes for a lopsided merger trade. Investors are putting up close to $2.60 for every $1 they stand to gain in headline terms. This first estimate doesn’t take into account time value, competing offers or break fees.
| PayPal price reference | Price | Move from $56.86 |
|---|---|---|
| July 14 close, used when no deal is priced in | $47.37 | -16.7% |
| July 16 price during trading | $56.86 | — |
| Stripe-Advent proposal as reported | $60.50 | +6.4% |
| William Blair view with a higher bid | $70.00 | +23.1% |
The $70 level is just an analyst projection, not a formal offer.
Stripe and Advent put in their joint bid earlier this month, Reuters reported. Sources told Reuters the deal has about $50 billion in bank financing lined up. The two firms would each get an equal share. All three companies declined to comment.
No deal was signed, and according to Reuters, PayPal hadn’t responded to the bidders at the time of reporting.
Price could give the board some leverage. Analysts peg the deal at about nine times forecasted 2026 free cash flow.
Visible Alpha figures show the wider set is trading at about 16 times earnings. That set includes Fiserv NASDAQ:FISV, Block NYSE:XYZ and Adyen AMS:ADYEN. The disclosed entry multiple comes in about 44% under that.
Andrew Jeffrey at William Blair called the $60.50 per share bid a “low-ball offer.” He said the group could go as high as $70 a share. Reuters
The higher price adds debt risk. Reuters Breakingviews said a $70 bid would take leverage over seven times EBITDA.
The deal would make sense strategically. Stripe runs on merchants, PayPal brings its 430 million consumer accounts. Together, the pair would see close to $3.7 trillion in annual payment volume.
PayPal posted 7% higher revenue in Q1, hitting $8.35 billion. Payment volume climbed 11% to $464 billion. But GAAP operating margin dropped 182 basis points, landing at 17.8%.
CEO Enrique Lores said in May that PayPal was “executing with urgency.” Now, that strategy faces a cash offer up front. SEC
Risks are still big here. This plan might not end with a binding agreement. New rules or a pushback from the board might make the gap wider. Another buyer could also make a higher offer.
Right now, PayPal’s action leans more toward improvement than breakdown. The price still leaves plenty uncertain.
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