HELSINKI, July 22, 2026, 12:13 EEST
- Trading continued in Helsinki. Shares in Nokia HEL:NOKIA were at €9.26, falling 1.3% as of 11:56 EEST. The OMXH25 index rose 1.05%.
- Initial consensus forecasts Q2 sales up 6.1%, with comparable operating profit increasing 24.9%.
- Projected Q2 earnings represent 16.0% of the yearly forecast, matching the upper end of Nokia’s indicated seasonal interval.
Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA dropped 1.3% to €9.26 on Wednesday. Early projections suggest second-quarter earnings are at the top end of Nokia’s usual range.
The €376 million figure represents 16.0% of analysts’ €2.357 billion yearly projection. Nokia expects that the second quarter will make up between 12% and 16% of its annual comparable profit.
The obstacle is influenced by operating leverage. Sales are expected to grow 6.1%, while operating profit is projected to increase by 24.9%.
Comparable operating margin is expected to increase by 120 basis points to reach 7.8%. Gross margin is projected to remain steady at 44.7%.
The focus now turns to managing expenses. The shares also underperformed compared to the OMXH25’s 1.05% rise.
| Metric | Q2 2025 actual | Q2 2026 preliminary consensus | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales, reported | €4.546bn | €4.822bn | +6.1% |
| Gross margin, comparable | 44.7% | 44.7% | Unchanged |
| Operating profit, comparable | €301m | €376m | +24.9% |
| Operating margin, comparable | 6.6% | 7.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Network Infrastructure sales | €1.826bn | €2.044bn | +11.9% |
| Mobile Infrastructure sales | €2.526bn | €2.587bn | +2.4% |
Infront compiled the consensus on July 16. Nokia has not verified this data on its own. Variations are based on Nokia’s reported and recast numbers.
Network Infrastructure is responsible for the majority of projected sales growth, with its €218 million rise accounting for close to 80% of the group’s overall increase.
Mobile Infrastructure revenue is expected to rise by just 2.4%. As a result, investor focus is likely to shift primarily to Optical and IP performance.
Demand continues to be robust. AI and cloud sales climbed 49% in the first quarter, now accounting for 8% of total group revenue.
Nokia secured €1 billion in orders from these clients. The focus now shifts to turning these orders into profitable revenue.
Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated that Nokia was “tracking somewhat above the mid-point.” He was speaking about the company’s annual profit guidance of €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion. Nokia Corporation | Nokia
With a price of €9.26, the stock trades at roughly 28 times projected 2026 comparable EPS, based on analysts’ consensus forecast of €0.33.
The narrow margin for error leaves scant tolerance for missing margin targets. Revenue outperformance without corresponding margin gains is likely to provide minimal backing.
Last week, competitor Ericsson STO:ERIC-B highlighted the risk from rising input costs, cautioning that inflation in AI-related memory chips could squeeze industry margins.
Ericsson’s chief financial officer Lars Sandström stated that the entire industry is experiencing stress. “The whole AI build-out is putting quite the pressure on the whole industry, including us.” Reuters
Risks: Rising component expenses may impact Nokia’s anticipated leverage. Margins could also come under pressure if projects are accepted late or if customers reduce spending.
Nokia is scheduled to release its results around 08:00 EEST on Thursday, with its analyst webcast set to begin at 15:00 EEST.
A consensus outcome would position Q2 at Nokia’s seasonal peak. A shortfall in profits would reveal the reliance on cost management anticipated by expectations.
