WARSAW, July 22, 2026, 14:59 CEST
- At about 12:25 GMT, Brent was priced at $94.28 and WTI at $87.03, with both futures contracts continuing normal trading.
- September Brent traded with a premium of $9.49 above December, while the equivalent WTI premium stood at $8.38.
- U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.603 million barrels, according to preliminary API data.
Brent crude rose roughly 3.6% on Wednesday, momentarily reaching $95.47. WTI advanced approximately 3.2%. Both oil benchmarks hit their highest levels in close to six weeks.
The curve served as the investor signal. Prompt barrels rose significantly more than supplies for late-2026 delivery.
| Benchmark | September 2026 | December 2026 | September premium | December discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $94.28 | $84.79 | $9.49 | 10.1% |
| WTI | $87.03 | $78.65 | $8.38 | 9.6% |
This represents the percentage difference from the September contract. Contract data was recorded between 12:23 and 12:26 GMT.
Brent traded at a premium close to a tenth of September’s price, while WTI’s premium was marginally lower. This front-loading suggests concerns over near-term transport risks rather than ongoing scarcity.
The difference is important for oil-equity investors. The curve benefits short-term cash flow rather than inputs for long-term valuation.
Shipping was the immediate cause. Three tankers loaded with Saudi crude changed direction in the Red Sea, moving for Suez in response to threats issued by Yemen’s Houthi movement.
Refiners in Asia looked for substitute shipments via Yanbu and opted for extended voyages around Africa. Such rerouting can occupy tankers and postpone arrivals.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said, “The energy market now has the dual-strait worry.” He referred to the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
U.S. inventory numbers shifted in the opposite direction. Early API data indicated a crude stock increase of 2.603 million barrels, while expectations were for a 1.5 million-barrel decline.
The consensus missed by 4.103 million barrels. Brent, however, remained above $94. This divergence indicates Wednesday’s premium likely stemmed largely from seaborne logistics risk.
The official U.S. inventory data was scheduled for release at 16:30 CEST, set to indicate if the API increase signals softer refinery demand or simply short-term changes in import schedules.
Risks: A confirmed stoppage at either strait may drive prompt prices significantly upward. Conversely, a ceasefire, resumption of tanker movement, or a major increase in official stockpiles could reverse the premium.
