NEW YORK, July 24, 2026, 19:07 EDT — The U.S. cash equities markets have ended trading for the day.
- International Paper rose 11.2% to settle at $42.16, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.05%.
- Roughly 93% of the stock’s 12.2% weekly rise occurred on Friday.
- International Paper maintains its preliminary, unaudited Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $520 million to $570 million.
International Paper’s market value rose by about $2.3 billion on Friday, with its stock topping gains in the S&P 500 and closing close to the day’s peak. The broader index was little changed.
Data based on closing prices indicates that nearly 93% of the stock’s weekly gain was achieved on Friday. The majority of the weekly progress occurred in a single session.
The move stemmed from a Truist note, rather than a disclosure from the company. Analyst Michael Roxland reported that Packaging Corporation of America NYSE:PKG is set to raise prices by $140 per ton in September. Roxland anticipates that International Paper and Smurfit WestRock NYSE:SW will adopt similar increases.
Roxland stated that “higher containerboard prices should be positive for PKG, SW, and IP.” He has Buy ratings on each of these stocks. Barron’s
September timing is crucial. The reported gain has no impact on the second quarter, and would only influence the last month of the third quarter. According to International Paper, pricing typically recovers after a delay.
The increase in equity value on Friday was 4.2 times greater than the preliminary midpoint for Q2 EBITDA, representing 68% of the midpoint for the full year. The figures indicate that investors were focused on more than just Thursday’s earnings.
International Paper projects its Q2 adjusted EBITDA at a preliminary and unaudited $520 million to $570 million. The midpoint of $545 million marks a 19.5% decrease from Q1’s figure of $677 million. The company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.5 billion.
The peer comparison highlights the significance of Friday’s action.
| Company | Friday close | Friday move | Market value | Approx. 12-month move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Paper | $42.16 | up 11.2% | $22.4 billion | down 24% |
| Smurfit WestRock | $48.56 | up 11.1% | $25.5 billion | off less than 1% |
| Packaging Corp. of America | $254.39 | gained 8.8% | $22.7 billion | up 23% |
Market values and Friday’s closes reflect data at the end of the session. The changes over 12 months have been rounded.
Shares of International Paper and Smurfit increased beyond the leading reported price. Both stocks had underperformed PCA during the past 12 months. The relative gains suggest further potential for rerating among the underperformers.
PCA’s second-quarter report backed the rally with operational strength. Legacy corrugated shipments increased by 4.1%, marking a new quarterly high. Mills operated at full capacity.
PCA reduced its export sales by nearly 30,000 tons to prioritize meeting local box demand. Chief Executive Mark Kowlzan stated that demand “remained strong throughout the entire quarter.” SEC
Costs are still the main obstacle. Increased freight expenses reduced PCA’s legacy earnings by 26 cents per share, while a weaker packaging price and mix took off an additional 11 cents.
International Paper benefits from its own volume stability. In the first quarter, North American box shipments outperformed industry demand by roughly 3%. However, segment profit for the region dropped to $248 million from $319 million in the previous period.
Smurfit is set to report on Wednesday, with International Paper due ahead of Thursday’s market open in New York. Markets will be alert for a comparable pricing update and maintained full-year guidance.
Risks: The $140 hike is still at the planning stage and has not been formally disclosed. Pushback from customers or softer demand for boxes could offset it. Rising freight costs may also eat into potential gains.
U.S. cash markets did not open at the dateline. Trading is set to resume on Monday, July 27. Shares of International Paper remain down around 24% from where they stood a year earlier.
