AMSTERDAM, July 25, 2026, 18:08 CEST
- Air France-KLM ended Friday’s session at €11.74, gaining 4.45%, though the stock declined 5.4% for the week.
- Initial estimates suggest revenue increased by 9.4%, while operating profit dropped by 51.2%.
- KLM has prolonged the suspension of three Middle East routes until September 6.
KLM’s parent Air France-KLM EPA:AF will be closely watched on Thursday as it faces a significant margin test. Analysts’ initial consensus estimates second-quarter revenue at €9.238 billion, with operating profit forecast at €359 million.
This suggests a 9.4% increase in revenue from the previous year. In contrast, operating profit is projected to decrease by 51.2%. The operating margin is expected to contract to 3.9%, down from 8.7%.
The fuel bridge offers further insight. Air France-KLM had anticipated an extra $1.1 billion in fuel expenses for the second quarter. Based on the April exchange rate cited by Reuters, this corresponds to approximately €941 million.
Consensus expects operating profit to drop by €377 million. An initial estimate thus includes approximately €564 million of compensating factors in other areas. This represents nearly 60% of the total gross fuel impact.
KLM shares are not listed independently. Investors access KLM through Air France-KLM, with the group’s stock listed in Paris.
Euronext Paris did not open on Saturday. Shares increased by 4.45% to €11.74 on Friday, following four consecutive days of declines. Despite the gain, they remained down 5.4% compared to the prior Friday’s close.
Oil was a key factor behind Friday’s market rebound. Brent futures dropped 4.4%, after briefly exceeding $100 per barrel a day earlier. The U.S. Global Jets exchange-traded fund rose 3.9%.
Shares of International Consolidated Airlines Group LON:IAG advanced 2.79%, while Ryanair Holdings ISE:RYA climbed 4.29%. The coordinated gains point to an oil-related lift across the sector, not a specific reassessment for KLM.
The latest projections generate the following earnings bridge:
| Metric | Q2 2025 reported | Q2 2026 preliminary estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €8.443 billion | €9.238 billion | +9.4% |
| Operating profit | €736 million | €359 million | -51.2% |
| Operating margin | 8.7% | 3.9% | -4.8 percentage points |
Analyst projections for 2026 are provided, rather than official company guidance. The calculations are based on disclosed 2025 outcomes and the latest consensus forecasts.
Air France-KLM warned in April that its fuel expenses for 2026 might increase by $2.4 billion. The carrier lowered its projected capacity expansion to a range of 2%-4%, down from the earlier 3%-5% target. Chief Executive Ben Smith stated the firm would not be able to completely compensate for the extra costs.
KLM has further prolonged the suspension of flights to Dubai, Riyadh and Dammam, with service expected to stay paused until September 6. The carrier has not specified the financial impact.
Fare strength continues to be a challenge. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary stated that peak-summer pricing was “trending weaker rather than stronger.” He projected a mid-single-digit decrease in fares for the current quarter. Reuters
The comparison with last year is challenging. Air France-KLM recorded an operating profit of €736 million, supported by robust demand in premium segments. The premium-economy class offered by KLM was noted as a key factor.
The upcoming release on Thursday will challenge the projected €564 million in fuel offsets. Investors are set to monitor unit revenue, fuel hedging positions, expenses, and any updates to capacity forecasts. Air France-KLM is due to announce results on July 30.
Risks are balanced. A further drop in oil prices may boost margins and share prices. However, if oil rises again, route closures persist, or fares decline, forecasts could be lowered.
