LONDON, July 25, 2026, 18:04 BST — London trading finished for the day.
GSK plc LON:GSK will present its strategy update on Tuesday as it faces a £3.63 billion shortfall in sales projections. Consensus forecasts compiled by the company estimate 2031 revenue at £36.37 billion, while management’s objective is above £40 billion.
The gap represents 9.1% of the target minimum, persisting even with an anticipated increase in oncology sales.
Shares finished Friday at 1,919.5 pence, an increase of 0.7%. Over the week, the stock advanced roughly 0.2%. Shares are still trading 15.9% under the 52-week peak.
The figures below are calculated using GSK’s July 17 broker consensus. Data is drawn from official disclosed numbers.
| Sales metric | 2026 consensus | 2031 consensus | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group turnover | £33.839bn | £36.368bn | Increase of £2.529bn, or 7.5% |
| Oncology | £2.481bn | £6.019bn | Rise of £3.538bn, or 142.6% |
| Dolutegravir-based HIV regimens | £5.692bn | £1.010bn | Decrease of £4.682bn, or 82.3% |
| General Medicines | £9.597bn | £7.644bn | Drop of £1.953bn, or 20.4% |
| GSK target | — | More than £40bn | At least £3.632bn over consensus view |
The model projects oncology will generate an additional £3.54 billion by 2031. Meanwhile, revenues from Dolutegravir-based HIV treatments are set to decline by £4.68 billion. As a result, oncology revenue increases alone do not offset the loss from this one patent expiry.
Initial sensitivity: The survey continues to include £430 million in projected 2031 camlipixant sales. GSK discontinued chronic-cough development as of the survey’s effective date.
Deleting the line completely would reduce modeled sales to £35.94 billion, widening the target deficit to £4.06 billion, or 10.2%. This does not represent a forecast. GSK is still evaluating camlipixant for use in irritable bowel syndrome.
According to Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten, camlipixant is “nice to have but not a must-have” for GSK’s revenue trajectory. He noted that the market has not yet factored in the impact of recent acquisitions. Reuters
Jideytro delivered an early boost this week as the FDA signed off on GSK’s initial lung-cancer drug on Wednesday. The decision came ahead of the scheduled September 18 target.
Within the approval dataset, 44% of 117 patients showed a response. Of those who responded, 69% continued to respond at 12 months.
Chief Scientific Officer Tony Wood stated the move aligned with GSK’s approach to buy assets featuring “validated targets.” Jideytro was obtained via the $10.6 billion Nuvalent deal. According to GSK, pharmacies are expected to have stock available within weeks, the company told Reuters. GSK
Financial forecasts for Tuesday are more subdued. Analysts predict quarterly revenue of £8.24 billion, with core operating profit estimated at £2.68 billion and core EPS projected at 47.1 pence.
Based on reported figures for Q2 2025, these projections indicate a 3.2% increase in sales. Core profit and EPS are forecast to climb about 1% to 2%. The portfolio update is therefore the more significant catalyst for shares.
GSK is set to release its results at 12:00 BST on July 28, with an investor presentation scheduled for 14:00 BST. CEO Luke Miels needs to demonstrate which assets have the potential to outperform present projections.
Patience among UK pharma investors is wearing thin. AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) shares are down 10% this year following a significant trial failure, which redirected focus from earnings to the strength of its drug pipeline.
Risks: GSK’s valuation gap could increase if there are additional setbacks in clinical trials. Delays in launches, currency fluctuations, and slow regulatory approvals may also weigh on its outlook.
The upcoming week depends on a single figure. Miels requires a minimum of £3.63 billion in credible, risk-adjusted sales surpassing the forecasts for the 2031 models as of today.
