NEW YORK, July 26, 2026, 17:05 EDT — U.S. markets have ended trading for the day.
- SoFi ended trading on Friday at $16.46, marking a 4.7% decline from the previous Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq fell by 2%.
- Initial projections allocate 37 cents, or 62%, of 2026 earnings per share to the second half.
- Options markets are pricing in a 10.45% move on earnings, exceeding the typical 8.5% seen recently.
Present forecasts allocate 37 cents of SoFi’s expected 60-cent per-share earnings in 2026 to the second half, equating to 62% of that year’s total. The company’s July 29 update will thus measure performance against these projections.
Early Q2 EPS stands at 11 cents, down from 14 cents in the past three months. The full-year forecast dropped by a cent to 60 cents. The target shifted to a later time.
The estimate bridge highlights the areas under the most pressure:
| Measure | Three months ago | Current or implied |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 EPS | $0.14 | $0.11 |
| Q3 2026 EPS | $0.16 | $0.17 |
| Full-year 2026 EPS | $0.61 | $0.60 |
| Second-half EPS threshold | — | $0.37, or 62% |
| Implied Q4 EPS | — | $0.20 |
Initial consensus projections.
Derived from Q1 reported EPS and latest projections; this figure is not an official consensus.
The implied fourth quarter figure of 20 cents is higher than the present third quarter estimate of 17 cents. This calculation is arithmetic and does not reflect analyst consensus.
SoFi closed Friday at $16.46, marking a 4.7% decline since July 17. The Nasdaq dropped 2% for the week. Trading volume on Friday was approximately 20% higher than SoFi’s 65-day average.
The stock is down 37.1% so far this year, trading between $14.92 and $32.73 over the past 52 weeks.
TipRanks options data suggests a 10.45% move following earnings. Over the last four earnings releases, the average absolute move was 8.5%.
Based on Friday’s closing price, the range is approximately $14.74 to $18.18. The lower point would fall below the 52-week low, while the upper point comes close to Truist’s revised price target.
Truist Financial NYSE:TFC analyst Matthew Coad reiterated a Hold recommendation on Friday and increased his price target to $18 from $17. However, he characterized his outlook as “tactically more bearish.” TipRanks
Coad stated that “private credit demand for longer-duration consumer loans is declining.” He additionally noted cumulative loss triggers on certain 2025 LPB asset-backed securities. TipRanks
Coad projects $13.5 billion in Q2 originations, representing an 11% increase from the prior quarter. He anticipates a contraction in net interest margin due to a higher proportion of student loans.
The early consensus expects EPS of 11 cents and revenue around $1.11 billion. This would represent revenue growth close to 30%, aligning with guidance given by management in April.
Adjusted revenue for the first quarter climbed 41% to $1.09 billion. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 62% to $340 million. Membership rose 35% to reach 14.7 million.
However, Technology Platform revenue declined 27% to $75.1 million. The Loan Platform Business generated $140.8 million in adjusted revenue, primarily driven by $3 billion in third-party personal-loan originations and referrals.
Management maintains its 2026 adjusted revenue goal of approximately $4.66 billion and adjusted EPS of 60 cents. The EPS target, based on Friday’s closing price, represents a multiple of about 27.
Chief Executive Anthony Noto said that additional segments and current operations are “strengthening and diversifying our platform.” The upcoming report will need to demonstrate that this combination is sufficient to counterbalance challenges in funding and technology. SEC
SoFi is scheduled to announce results at about 7 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, with its earnings call set for 8 a.m. The Federal Reserve will issue its decision at 2 p.m., followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
While markets widely anticipate rates to remain steady, futures on Friday indicated a 38% probability of a 25 basis point hike. This leaves SoFi with two rate-driven potential market movers in the span of seven hours.
Risks: Declining consumer credit, restricted partner funding, or additional margin compression may undermine the outlook for the second half. An unexpected decision by the Fed could overshadow updates from the company.
LPB originations, net interest margin, and the 60-cent outlook will be key metrics for investors. A quarter with 11 cents may not be enough to resolve trading sentiment.
