Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) drops 28% as company lowers Amvuttra outlook
30 July 2026
3 mins read

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) drops 28% as company lowers Amvuttra outlook

NEW YORK, July 30, 2026, 13:02 EDT – Shares of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals fell 28% after the firm revised its Amvuttra sales guidance downward.

  • Shares were last at $205.25, a drop of 28.4%, after reaching a low of $200.44.
  • Transthyretin product revenue outlook was reduced to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.
  • The updated midpoint calls for average TTR sales of $1.205 billion per quarter in the second half.

Alnylam stock dropped 28.4% to $205.25 during active trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday. The company revised its 2026 transthyretin (TTR) product revenue forecast lower by $200 million at the midpoint.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:ALNY

Based on the SEC’s share count from July 24, an estimated $10.9 billion in equity value was wiped out. This initial calculation represented approximately 54 times the lowered TTR guidance. Shares continued to trade.

The overall shift in revenue was less pronounced. Collaboration and royalty guidance increased by $150 million at the midpoint, resulting in the total-revenue midpoint falling by roughly $50 million.

This is the indication for investors. The response indicates that shareholders reassessed the sustainability of Amvuttra sales, rather than simply factoring in a single year’s reported revenue.

The decline was limited to the company. At around 12:47 p.m. EDT, other ATTR-related shares and the biotech index saw much smaller movements.

SecurityPriceSession move
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals $205.25-28.4%
BridgeBio Pharma $81.86-2.0%
Pfizer $24.77-1.5%
Ionis Pharmaceuticals $53.07-1.8%
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA:XBI)$149.24+0.9%

The quarter continued to perform well overall. Total revenue increased by 67% to $1.291 billion. Product sales jumped 74% to $1.172 billion. Amvuttra marked a milestone as Alnylam’s first product to generate more than $1 billion in revenue for a single quarter.

Adjusted earnings reached $1.84 per share, topping analyst estimates. However, revenue fell short of expectations, missing the approximately $1.32 billion forecast by nearly $31 million. Amvuttra is a gene-silencing treatment administered every three months for both cardiac and nerve types of transthyretin amyloidosis.

Company filings reveal a quarter-on-quarter mix that appears less favourable.

MetricQ1 2026Q2 2026Sequential change
Amvuttra product revenue$889.9 million$1,011.8 millionup 13.7%
Total TTR product revenue$910.4 million$1,030.2 millionup 13.2%
Total product revenue$1,036.1 million$1,172.1 millionup 13.1%
Non-GAAP operating income$338.8 million$318.1 milliondown 6.1%
Cost of goods/product revenue20.0%25.4%rise of 5.4 points

Product sales increased by 13.1%, though adjusted operating income declined 6.1%. Product costs accounted for 25.4% of sales, rising from 20.0%. Alnylam attributed the higher costs largely to increased royalty rates for Amvuttra.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Poulton was direct. “We didn’t get it right with our original guidance. We own that.” He explained that early second-line demand was boosted by patients who had been waiting to switch therapies. MarketBeat

The updated ranges decrease product expectations but do not cut back on intended research or commercial expenditures.

2026 measurePrevious guidanceUpdated guidanceMidpoint change
TTR product revenue$4.4B-$4.7B$4.2B-$4.5B-$200M
Rare-disease product revenue$0.5B-$0.6BUnchanged
Total product revenue$4.9B-$5.3B$4.7B-$5.1B-$200M
Collaboration and royalty revenue$0.4B-$0.5B$0.575B-$0.625B+$150M
Non-GAAP R&D and SG&A$2.7B-$2.8BUnchanged
Derived total-revenue midpoint$5.55B$5.50B-$50M

Initial estimate based on the midpoint of each range provided by the companies.

Alnylam reported $1.941 billion in TTR sales for the first half. With the midpoint now updated, $2.409 billion in TTR revenue is required for the second half. To achieve this, average sales per quarter would need to hit $1.205 billion, which is 16.9% higher than the second quarter.

Even at the lower threshold, a greater run rate is necessary. Company results analysis indicates this hurdle must be met.

Updated TTR goalAnnual guidanceRevenue required H2Average per H2 quarterChange from Q2
Lower bound$4.20B$2.259B$1.130B+9.7%
Median$4.35B$2.409B$1.205B+16.9%
Upper bound$4.50B$2.559B$1.280B+24.2%

Chief Executive Yvonne Greenstreet said that first-line starts currently account for “about 80% of category growth.” The commercial focus is evident. Demand from newly diagnosed patients is expected to offset declining switch demand. MarketBeat

Management believes that approximately 80% of patients with ATTR cardiomyopathy do not receive treatment. Alnylam is increasing diagnosis initiatives and extending its outreach to prescribers. These numbers reflect company projections rather than outside evaluations.

Risks: Even with sales at the lower end of the guidance for the second half, the figure is still 9.7% higher than Q2. However, increased royalty payments are squeezing product margins. Additional risks include a slower adoption rate for first-line use, changes to reimbursement, or negative developments in clinical trials, any of which could prompt a further adjustment.

The next assessment concerns third-quarter TTR revenue. If the result falls short of about $1.13 billion, additional efforts will be needed in the fourth quarter.

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Further analysis

What caused ALNY stock to plunge today?

By 12:50 p.m. Eastern, ALNY was last seen at $202.72, falling 29.3%. XBI advanced 0.8%, while SPY and QQQ climbed 1.2% and 2.8%, respectively. The move reflects a company-specific repricing, not a sector-wide biotech decline. Management lowered TTR guidance by $200 million at the midpoint, citing normalization of second-line demand. Alnylam Investor Relations Revenue missed estimates by about $31 million, but the guidance cut was the larger factor. MarketBeat

Did the second-quarter results truly show weakness?

Results varied.
Total revenue was reported at $1.291 billion, up 67% year-on-year. Alnylam Investor Relations
AMVUTTRA sales hit $1.012 billion, climbing 106%, while TTR revenue totaled $1.030 billion. Alnylam Investor Relations
Consensus from two feeds put revenue near $1.32 billion—a shortfall of $30–$31 million. Investing.com
Adjusted earnings per share stood at $1.84.
Estimates ranged from $1.60 to $1.63, based on the data source. Investing.com

What is the level of challenge presented by the updated 2026 guidance?

First-half TTR revenue was around $1.941 billion. Alnylam Investor Relations
Achieving $4.2–$4.5 billion for the year means $2.259–$2.559 billion is needed in the second half. Alnylam Investor Relations
That breaks down to roughly $1.130–$1.280 billion TTR revenue per quarter.
At the midpoint, around $1.205 billion per quarter is required, 17% higher than in Q2.
The challenge is significant.
Another reset in demand could send results toward or below the lower end.

Is AMVUTTRA’s rollout maintaining rapid growth?

AMVUTTRA advanced 13.7% from one period to the next, climbing from $890 million to $1.012 billion. Alnylam Investor Relations
Overall TTR revenue increased 13.2% sequentially, totaling $1.030 billion. Alnylam Investor Relations
Net U.S. demand contributed $129 million, with about $20 million attributed to inventory carrying some offset. Alnylam Investor Relations
Management reports that 80% of newly initiated treatments now originate from first-line patients. MarketBeat
Growth quality remains a concern, as early second-line switches are returning to historical patterns sooner than anticipated.

Does ALNY represent a bargain following the drop?

Alnylam’s shares traded at $202.72, giving the company a market value of about $28.0 billion.
This represents around 5.7 times the company’s updated midpoint for 2026 product revenue guidance. Alnylam Investor Relations
Factoring in the midpoint from collaboration and royalty projections, the simple multiple falls to nearly 5.1 times. Alnylam Investor Relations
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio remains close to 51 times.
While the stock is more affordable, it is not seen as a bargain by traditional metrics.
Investors could assign more value to the pipeline, but current assumptions about execution have become more significant.

Is Alnylam now generating enough revenue to support itself financially?

Alnylam reported Q2 GAAP operating income of $231 million, compared with a $16 million loss in the prior-year period. Alnylam Investor Relations
GAAP net income stood at $164 million, and non-GAAP operating income totaled $318 million. Alnylam Investor Relations
The cash and securities balance reached $3.3 billion, up $400 million from December. Alnylam Investor Relations
Combined R&D and SG&A expenses amounted to $761 million in the quarter. Alnylam Investor Relations
Convertible debt stood at $1.011 billion, while royalty and development-funding liabilities were $1.720 billion. Alnylam Investor Relations
Liquidity remains strong, though the company’s capital structure is complex.

Is the TTR franchise still facing competition as a threat?

Yes, though a leading branded competitor recently encountered a significant obstacle.
Eplontersen failed to achieve the primary efficacy measure in CARDIO-TTRansform on July 9, 2026. AstraZeneca
Current competitors in the U.S. market still consist of Pfizer’s tafamidis and BridgeBio’s acoramidis tablets. Pfizer Labeling
AMVUTTRA lacks a direct outcomes comparison to either stabilizer therapy. MarketBeat
Management has cited better first-line uptake, though there is currently no independent confirmation. MarketBeat
Key variables for forecasts remain price, diagnosis trends, and physician practices.

What factors might drive ALNY in the near term?

The upcoming quarterly TTR result could have greater significance than overall pipeline developments.
Investors are set to focus on whether quarterly TTR revenue meets or surpasses the $1.13 billion minimum threshold. Alnylam Investor Relations
ALN-HTT02 Huntington’s results are anticipated on October 23, 2026. Alnylam Investor Relations
Readouts for ALN-6400 and ALN-2232 remain scheduled for the second half of 2026. Alnylam Investor Relations
Regeneron has provided a target FDA action date for Cemdisiran in November 2026. Alnylam Investor Relations
Each milestone involves elements of clinical, regulatory, or commercial risk.

Following today’s reset, what appears to be a reasonable 12-month price range?

A 29% swing today highlights the uncertainty around any fixed-point prediction.
A clear scenario based on sales multiples provides more context than a single target price.
With a $5.5 billion midpoint revenue estimate, a four-times sales multiple signals about $159. Alnylam Investor Relations
A 5.5-times multiple indicates around $219; a seven-times scenario suggests close to $278.
This range reflects possible further declines or some rebound in value.
These models show valuation possibilities, not explicit probability-based targets.
Pipeline advances could drive results above these scenarios; another AMVUTTRA reset could push valuations to the lower end.

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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