NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 17:10 EDT
- Zeta reported second-quarter revenue up 44% to $442.8 million, surpassing the midpoint of its guidance by $22.3 million.
- Guidance midpoints for the fourth quarter suggest revenue of around $507.9 million, in line with the previous forecast.
- Zeta shares were down 8.1% at $22.30 in after-hours trading as of 17:00 EDT.
Zeta Global posted its 20th straight quarter of surpassing analyst forecasts and raising guidance on Tuesday. The company’s revenue, profit and cash flow all topped their levels from a year earlier. Nonetheless, investors sold off the stock in after-hours trading.
The numbers behind the guidance highlight the probable issue. Calculated at the precise midpoints of its ranges, Zeta lifted its full-year revenue outlook by $32 million. This gain was rounded to $33 million by the company.
Revenue for the second quarter surpassed the earlier midpoint by $22.3 million. The latest midpoint for the third quarter increased by an additional $9.5 million. Combined, these amounts represent nearly all of the annual gain.
| Revenue bridge | Previous basis | Latest basis | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Second quarter | $420.5 mln guide midpoint | $442.8 mln actual | +$22.3 mln |
| Third quarter | $461.0 mln midpoint | $470.5 mln midpoint | +$9.5 mln |
| Full year 2026 | $1,785.5 mln midpoint | $1,817.5 mln midpoint | +$32.0 mln |
| Implied fourth quarter | $507.7 mln | $507.9 mln | +$0.2 mln |
Fourth-quarter results are derived based on Zeta’s reported intervals and first-quarter revenue. Minor discrepancies with the company’s published percentage increase can be attributed to rounding.
The implied fourth-quarter threshold shifted by roughly $200,000. This is negligible compared to near $508 million in quarterly sales. The increase mainly reflected results already achieved or anticipated in the third quarter.
Zeta finished the regular session up 7.5% at $24.26, but dropped to $22.30 by 17:00 EDT, marking an 8.1% slide. Trading continued actively after hours, despite the New York cash market being closed.
The quarter delivered solid results. Adjusted EBITDA outpaced revenue growth and free cash flow rose by 73%. Zeta turned around last year’s GAAP loss.
| Second-quarter measure | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $442.8 mln | $308.4 mln | up 44% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $91.7 mln | $58.8 mln | up 56% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 20.7% | 19.1% | increase of 1.6 points |
| GAAP net income/(loss) | $8.2 mln | $(12.8) mln | rise of $21.0 mln |
| Operating cash flow | $69.2 mln | $42.0 mln | up 65% |
| Free cash flow | $58.0 mln | $33.6 mln | increase of 73% |
Zeta’s unaudited statements provide the figures. Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow represent non-GAAP metrics.
Customer economics saw further gains. The number of super-scaled customers climbed to 197, representing a 17% increase from a year earlier. Revenue per super-scaled customer also grew 17% to $1.8 million.
The acquisition trend moderated in the quarter. Revenue, not counting LiveIntent, Marigold, and political clients, increased 15.8% from the prior quarter. Marigold revenue decreased by $7.5 million.
| Operating measure | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $396.3 mln | $442.8 mln | up 11.7% |
| Revenue excluding listed items | $341.0 mln | $395.0 mln | growth of 15.8% |
| Marigold revenue | $55.6 mln | $48.1 mln | down 13.5% |
| Marigold share of revenue | 14.0% | 10.9% | decrease of 3.1 points |
| Super-scaled customers | 189 | 197 | increased by 4.2% |
| Super-scaled customer ARPU | $1.7 mln | $1.8 mln | rise of 5.9% |
Adjusted company numbers are rounded. Revenue from political candidates was not significant in either quarter.
Chief Executive David Steinberg said the company has come to an inflection point. Chief Financial Officer Chris Greiner attributed the results to AI adoption throughout the platform.
The June deal with Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR is still central to the pitch. Zeta will transition its Data Cloud to Palantir’s Foundry platform. Both firms have also committed to collaborating to win customers together.
Steinberg earlier stated the partnership has potential to generate over $100 million in yearly revenue, mentioning this would occur “the coming years.” The release on Tuesday did not outline a separate revenue figure tied to Palantir. Zeta Global
The midpoint for full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised by $7.9 million. Free cash flow guidance saw an increase of $20.3 million. GAAP earnings guidance advanced to a range of $0.09 to $0.11 per share.
Risks: Stock-based compensation totaled $52.1 million, accounting for almost 12% of the company’s quarterly revenue. Palantir’s sales target is still based on future projections. Zeta is also unable to reconcile its forward guidance for adjusted profit and cash flow with GAAP metrics, as the necessary estimates are viewed as unreliable.
Zeta reported an increase of about 9% week-over-week. The next assessment comes in Wednesday’s regular session, which is expected to feature greater liquidity and updated analyst projections.
Related articles: NASDAQ:PLTR
Further analysis
Did Zeta’s second quarter significantly enhance the 2026 outlook?
Revenue jumped 44% to $442.8 million, topping the midpoint of its guidance by $23 million. Zeta lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $1.811 billion–$1.824 billion. The company also raised its free-cash-flow forecast to about $255 million. GAAP earnings are now projected at $0.09–$0.11 per share. Business Wire
What is the upcoming identifiable catalyst?
Zeta projected third-quarter revenue between $469 million and $472 million, reflecting an increase of 39%–40%. The company set adjusted EBITDA guidance at $115 million to $116 million, with expected margins close to 24.6%. Revenue and quantity of super-scaled customers climbed 17% in the last quarter. Ongoing improvements would support the upgraded full-year forecast. Business Wire
Does ZETA appear expensive following its surge on Tuesday?
Zeta's shares ended the session up 7.5% at $24.26, lifting the company's market capitalisation to $5.79 billion. This represents about 3.2 times the midpoint of projected 2026 revenue and approximately 22.7 times expected free cash flow. These valuation ratios rely on continued core growth and additional improvements in margins. Business Wire
What is suggested for the stock by the latest analyst consensus?
The consensus price target from fourteen analysts stands at an average of $28.68, spanning a range between $22 and $44. This suggests a potential upside of roughly 18% from Tuesday’s closing price of $24.26. The spread in targets is notable. Analyst forecasts may be updated after the latest quarterly figures. MarketScreener
What poses the most significant risk to the investment thesis?
The company expects full-year growth of 39%–40%, compared to 24%–25% when acquisitions and political revenue are excluded. Stock-based compensation stood at $52.1 million, representing 11.8% of quarterly revenue. Both metrics have prompted scrutiny over growth quality and potential shareholder dilution. Free cash flow climbed 73% to $58 million, helping to alleviate some concerns. Business Wire
