The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST) Shares Surge Almost 40% as Wipes Expansion Alters Margin Outlook

The Honest Company (NASDAQ:HNST) Shares Surge Almost 40% as Wipes Expansion Alters Margin Outlook

NEW YORK, August 6, 2026, 15:07 EDT

  • The share price climbed 39.7% to a late $5.38. Trading volume was 13.5 times above the average of the previous three sessions.
  • Wipes and personal care made up 72.0% of revenue for the quarter, an increase from 53.0% in the same quarter last year.
  • On Thursday, four out of five price targets were set below the market price, which was reported with a delay.

The Honest Company, Inc. jumped 39.7% to $5.38 in the most recent delayed quote on Thursday. The company saw faster organic growth, and executives boosted their 2026 forecast. Nasdaq trading continued at the time of publication.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:HNST

Trading activity surged, with volume hitting 17.8 million shares—roughly 13.5 times higher than the average of the past three sessions.

A clearer indicator appears in the product mix. Wipes and personal care accounted for 72.0% of revenue in the second quarter, up from a combined 53.0% the previous year.

Q2 revenue distribution2026 revenue ($m)Year-on-year change2026 share2025 share
Wipes39.5+37.3%47.4%30.8%
Personal care and other20.5-1.1%24.6%22.2%
Diapers20.2-21.2%24.2%27.4%
Honest.com, apparel and Canada3.1-83.0%3.7%19.6%
Total83.3-10.9%100.0%100.0%

Revenue from wipes increased by 37.3%, but diapers dropped 21.2%. The Honest.com, apparel, and Canada segment contracted by $15.2 million—more than the overall revenue decrease of $10.2 million. Other categories together grew by a net $5.1 million.

Revenue declined 10.9% as portfolio exits offset core growth. Organic revenue increased 6.7%. Underlying adjusted gross margin improved by 340 basis points.

Q2 metric20262025Change
Reported revenue$83.3m$93.5m-10.9%
Organic revenue$80.2m$75.1m+6.7%
Gross margin48.4%40.4%+800 bps
Underlying adjusted gross margin43.8%40.4%+340 bps
Net income$10.7m$3.9m+$6.8m
Underlying adjusted EBITDA$7.8m$7.6m+$0.2m

Chief Executive Carla Vernón stated, “For the second quarter we delivered accelerated Organic Revenue growth of 7% and record underlying margins.” Tracked-channel consumption increased by 7.7%, compared to 2.3% for comparison categories. The Honest Company, Inc.

The headline margin requires a link. Adjusted gross margin stood at 50.1%. Stripping out tariff refunds and apparel liquidation, the figure was 43.8%. The underlying performance maintained robust growth.

Chief Financial Officer Curtiss Bruce stated, “To understand our true underlying profitability, it is important to exclude the one-time tariff refund and apparel liquidation.” Honest recorded $6.6 million in tariff refunds within cost of revenue.

Following that change, management raised its primary outlook. The midpoint for adjusted EBITDA climbed 11.6%, while the midpoint for reported revenue advanced 4.2%.

Full-year 2026 outlookUpdatedPriorMidpoint change
Reported revenue$319m–$325m$306m–$312m+4.2%
Organic revenue growth5%–7%4%–6%+1 percentage point
Adjusted gross marginMid-40sLow-40sHigher
Adjusted EBITDA$23m–$25m$20m–$23m+11.6%

The updated revenue forecast accounts for approximately $10 million in apparel liquidation. However, guidance for organic growth was also raised. This distinguishes the improvement in core performance from portfolio restructuring efforts.

The balance sheet allows management flexibility. The company reported cash holdings of $105.9 million and carried no debt. Operating cash flow for the first half totaled $37.8 million. Honest additionally bought back 5.6 million shares for $18.7 million, averaging $3.35 per share.

Working capital conditions could worsen in the near term. Management anticipates that a portion of the earlier inventory timing advantage will unwind in the second half.

Initial calculations in the article estimate enterprise value at close to $471.3 million, based on the delayed $5.38 share price, the basic share count as of July 31, and cash at the end of the quarter. This is roughly 19.6 times the midpoint of the company’s adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Preliminary valuation calculationsAmount
Most recent share price$5.38
Total basic shares107.3m
Total basic equity$577.2m
Total cash$105.9m
Total debt$0
Calculated enterprise value$471.3m
Estimated adjusted EBITDA for 2026 (midpoint)$24.0m
EV to adjusted EBITDA ratio19.6 times
EV to revenue ratio1.46 times
Cash per share (basic)$0.99

Analysts increased their target prices, yet the stock moved ahead of the majority of updates. As of August 6, four out of five targets remain at $5. New calls highlight the difference.

FirmAugust 6 actionRatingTargetGap versus $5.38
NorthlandLifted from $5.00Outperform$5.50+2.2%
Freedom BrokerSwitched from Hold; target increased from $4.00Buy$5.00-7.1%
Alliance GlobalLifted from $4.00Buy$5.00-7.1%
B. Riley SecuritiesLifted from $4.00Buy$5.00-7.1%
Telsey AdvisoryLifted from $4.00Market Perform$5.00-7.1%

The broader consensus continues to be careful. MarketBeat lists two buy ratings, four holds, and two sells. The average price target of $4.38 is 18.6% under the delayed quote.

The shift appeared to be specific to certain companies. Shares of e.l.f. Beauty Inc. climbed 7.9%. Edgewell Personal Care Co. (NYSE:EPC) dropped 3.8%, and Kimberly-Clark Corp. slipped 3.3%.

Risks persist. Ongoing diaper distribution losses and lower prices are still weighing on both sales and margins. The status of further tariff refunds is still unclear. Part of the cash generated in the first half also resulted from inventory timing.

The rerating faces two main challenges. Wipes growth needs to continue, and core margins must stay intact. With a valuation close to 20 times projected EBITDA, successful execution is now more critical than the refund.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What is driving HNST higher today?
Shares were at $5.36, rising $1.51, or 39.2%, as of 2:51 p.m. ET on August 6. The gain came after the company reported Q2 margin growth and raised its full-year forecast. The price is intraday.
Is the underlying business expanding even though reported revenue is down?
Organic revenue, as defined by the company, increased 6.7% to $80.2 million for the quarter. Total reported revenue declined 10.9% to $83.3 million, impacted by strategic exits and lower diaper performance. Revenue from wipes surged 37.3%, but diaper revenue dropped 21.2%. Tracked channel consumption advanced 7.7%, compared to 2.3% growth in peer categories.
What portion of the margin increase was contributed by tariff refunds?
The reported cost of revenue declined by $6.6 million due to tariff refunds. Reported gross margin increased by 800 basis points to 48.4%. The company’s underlying adjusted gross margin stood at 43.8%, up 340 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $14.5 million, with underlying adjusted EBITDA at $7.8 million.
How much improved is the forecast for 2026?
The company lifted its revenue forecast to $319 million–$325 million, up from $306 million–$312 million, with the range factoring in approximately $10 million from apparel liquidation. Guidance for organic revenue growth was raised to 5%–7% compared with the earlier 4%–6%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $23 million–$25 million, previously $20 million–$23 million. The projection is based on existing tariffs and does not offer a comparable GAAP profit estimate.
What valuation is indicated by the current rally?
Based on 107.3 million shares as of July 31, a share price of $5.36 suggests an equity value near $575 million. With no debt and after subtracting June-end cash, enterprise value is estimated at approximately $469 million. This represents around 19.5 times the $24 million adjusted EBITDA midpoint. By August 5, Honest had nearly completed its $25 million buyback program. Figures are approximate since the cash and share counts reference different periods.
Leokadia Głogulska

Leokadia Głogulska is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, space technology and global market developments. She graduated from Wrocław University of Economics and Business and previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. Her reporting focuses on helping readers understand the market trends, companies and technologies shaping the global economy.

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