NEW YORK, August 6, 2026, 16:02 EDT – Hertz stock surged 29% after the company’s earnings surpassed expectations, but the outlook for the remainder of the year will depend on third-quarter performance.
- Hertz finished the session at a provisional $2.02, rising 29.5% post-market. Trading volume hit 116.9 million shares, approximately 6.8 times its typical recent average.
- Revenue for the second quarter increased by 10% to $2.396 billion. Adjusted corporate EBITDA was $81 million.
- Based on the stated ranges, the company’s outlook indicates about $30 million in adjusted corporate EBITDA for the fourth quarter.
Hertz Global Holdings NASDAQ:HTZ jumped 29.5% on Thursday after quarterly earnings topped forecasts. The stock ended regular trading at an unofficial $2.02.
The earnings result was genuine. Trading activity indicated a possible squeeze as well. Roughly 31% of Hertz’s publicly traded shares were shorted as of July 15, putting bearish traders at risk of a rapid turnaround.
| Q2 measure | 2026 actual | Consensus or guidance | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.396 billion | About $2.30 billion | $2.185 billion |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $(0.11) | $(0.24) to $(0.25) | $(0.29) |
| Adjusted corporate EBITDA | $81 million | Updated guidance: $50 million-$80 million | $18 million |
| Total utilization | 79% | — | 78% |
Consensus estimates differed marginally between data sources. Company-reported results and previous year numbers are presented.
GAAP profit reflected significant non-operating gains. Hertz posted net income of $64 million, which included a $98 million gain from warrant revaluation and a $64 million gain from sales of non-vehicle assets. The adjusted net loss stayed at $47 million.
The main concern for investors is the concentration of earnings. Hertz reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $161 million in the first quarter, followed by a gain of $81 million in the second quarter. This resulted in a negative $80 million EBITDA for the first half.
However, the third-quarter guidance midpoint stands at $300 million, representing 120% of the $250 million midpoint for the full year. Based on the company’s provided ranges, the figures suggest approximately $30 million for the fourth quarter at both extremities.
| 2026 period | Adjusted corporate EBITDA | Status | Share of full-year midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| First quarter | $(161) million | Reported | (64%) |
| Second quarter | $81 million | Reported | 32% |
| First half | $(80) million | Reported | (32%) |
| Third quarter | $275 million-$325 million | Forecast | 120% at midpoint |
| Fourth quarter | Roughly $30 million | Implied | 12% |
| Full year | $225 million-$275 million | Forecast | 100% |
Fourth-quarter EBITDA reflects figures based on first-half performance along with the company’s own guidance, rather than being distinct guidance.
Rising prices drove most of the gains in operations. Daily revenue climbed 9%, even as the average fleet size fell by 1%. CEO Gil West noted the quarter showed “disciplined execution of our strategy and our consistent commercial strength.” Q4 Capital
| Operating measure | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per rental day | $61.98 | $56.89 | +9% |
| Revenue per unit, monthly | $1,542 | $1,429 | +8% |
| Adjusted operating expense per day | $37.49 | $36.13 | +4% |
| Revenue after adjusted expense per day | $24.49 | $20.76 | Roughly +18% |
| Net depreciation per unit | $302 | $256 | +18% |
| Total utilization | 79% | 78% | +80 basis points |
The company posted a 17% gain in the gap between revenue and expenses based on its core metrics.
Depreciation continued to drag. Net depreciation per vehicle increased by 18% compared to the prior year. Hertz anticipates this figure will fall to a range of $285 to $295 in the third quarter, and expects it to average about $300 for the year.
Recalls further limited capacity. Recall actions were approximately three times higher and impacted an average of nearly 15,000 vehicles. Hertz projected a second-quarter EBITDA impact of around $30 million.
Liquidity stood at $984 million at the quarter’s close. The company raised pro forma liquidity to just above $1 billion with a $350 million secured notes sale and an additional $30 million issuance. Management anticipates a year-end level between $1.0 billion and $1.4 billion, following payment of the remaining $200 million maturity due in December.
The stock rose 27.4% over the five sessions starting July 31, after hitting a 52-week low of $1.45 on Wednesday. Avis Budget Group NASDAQ:CAR was up just 1.7% on Thursday, indicating Hertz’s rally was mostly specific to the company.
Analyst recommendations published so far remain cautious. The current survey does not include any buy or overweight ratings. The consensus stands at underweight, though the median target price is still higher than Thursday’s closing level.
| Analyst measure | Current reading | Versus $2.02 close |
|---|---|---|
| Buy or overweight calls | 0 | — |
| Hold recommendations | 6 | — |
| Sell calls | 3 | — |
| Consensus view | Underweight | — |
| Median target price | $2.65 | Roughly +31% |
| Average target price | $3.09 | Roughly +53% |
| Price target range | $1.00-$5.50 | Roughly −50% to +172% |
The released survey could be updated as analysts adjust to new results.
In the coming week, investors will gauge if the rally persists despite lighter volume. Trading activity may be largely influenced by analyst estimate changes and short covering. From a fundamental perspective, a third-quarter shortfall of $25 million would represent 10% of the full-year EBITDA midpoint, assuming no compensation from other areas.
Risks: Residual values of used cars are prone to rapid declines. Ongoing recalls could keep utilization rates suppressed, and debt refinancing is still a significant factor. Notable short interest may heighten the scale of both upward and downward moves.
Thursday’s results eased immediate fears about execution but did not eliminate reliance on seasonal factors. The major test still lies in the third quarter.
