TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks to watch for Friday, August 7, ranked after Thursday’s close and the latest post-market updates. The model prioritizes companies with upgraded forecasts, strong cash conversion, and attractive valuations, while penalizing significant earnings shortfalls.
Selective • wait for payrolls, buy controlled resets
7,709.96 • -0.18%
26,348.35 • -0.06%
53,885.10 • -0.85%
4.67%
$82.49 • +3.83%
+88,000 • unemployment 4.2%
Thursday saw modest losses, with decliners outpacing gainers and the Russell 2000 slipping 0.6%. July payrolls data is due at 08:30 ET. With oil and bond yields rising, initial market reactions may be more telling than the opening numbers.
24% weight
Constellation Energy
NASDAQ: CEG
95 / 100
Constellation shares surged above $277 following its earnings beat before pulling back to $261.10. The brief gap created a more attractive entry point as the company raised its annual outlook. New long-term nuclear contracts have improved earnings visibility, while successful integration of Calpine remains important.
Shares closed at $261.10, down 1.52%. The stock holds a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $351.24. Analyst targets range from $296 to $441, implying a potential upside of 34.5%.
Adjusted operating EPS came in at $2.55, beating the $2.28 consensus. Revenue totaled $7.50 billion. The company raised its 2026 guidance to $11.50–$12.50. It also announced the $860 million sale of Brazos Valley.
At the midpoint of guidance, the multiple stands at 21.8×. The company has secured 920 MW in new nuclear contracts lasting 15 to 20 years, with the majority of its power generation under contract through 2050 or beyond.
Initiate first tranche at $255–$265, add to position at $242–$249, and avoid buying above $272.
Key areas to watch include progress on Calpine integration, the restart timeline for Crane, contract margin trends, and nuclear fleet availability during the autumn outage period.
regulatory intervention can outweigh the higher earnings range.
22% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
93 / 100
AerCap trades at the lowest earnings multiple among major peers. Management has raised guidance without factoring in additional gains from sales in the second half and has bought back $691 million in shares. Ongoing aircraft shortages continue to bolster lease rates and asset values.
Shares closed at $155.24, up 0.09%. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy, with an average price target of $179.30 and estimates ranging from $165 to $190, suggesting a potential upside of 15.5%.
Revenue and other income rose 15% to $2.17 billion. Adjusted net income was $811 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $5.14. Operating cash flow totaled $1.5 billion.
The company forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS at approximately $16.80, implying a 9.2× earnings multiple. Book value stands at $119.21 per share, with an adjusted debt-to-equity ratio of 2.05.
Buy the first tranche between $151 and $157, add more at $143 to $148, and avoid buying above $161.
Lease yields, airline credit quality, aircraft sale margins, and ongoing share buybacks at prices below the model’s intrinsic value estimate.
weaken returns. Gains on asset sales also vary by quarter.
20% weight
Walt Disney
NYSE: DIS
91 / 100
Disney’s recovery is now evident across its parks, streaming, merchandise, and free cash flow. Shares climbed after the results, yet the stock continues to trade at 15.3 times this year’s consensus earnings per share. A $9 billion share buyback provides additional support as management addresses softer sports profits.
The stock closed at $104.68, up 2.82%. Analysts rate it a consensus Buy, with an average price target of $127.00, ranging from $88 to $144. This suggests an implied upside of 21.3%.
Revenue reached $25.25 billion, up 7%. Adjusted EPS rose 28% to $2.06. Segment operating income climbed 21% to $5.56 billion, while free cash flow surged 63% to $3.07 billion.
Adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 is projected to grow around 16%, factoring in the extra 53rd week. The company has announced a $9 billion share buyback. For fiscal 2027, adjusted EPS is expected to deliver double-digit growth. The stock trades at 15.3 times the consensus EPS estimate for FY2026.
Initial buy at $102–$106; consider adding at $97–$100; avoid purchases above $108.
Key topics include streaming margins, domestic park attendance, sports rights costs, fourth-quarter guidance, and the pace of share buybacks.
demand or softer international attendance could dilute gains elsewhere.
18% weight
AIG
NYSE: AIG
89 / 100
AIG strengthened its operating performance without requiring investors to pursue significant upside. Premiums, underwriting profits, and capital returns increased. The stock is trading close to book value and about 10 times consensus earnings, but the potential upside remains modest.
Shares closed at $79.97, down 0.18%. In after-hours trading, the stock rose 1.6%. Analysts are split between Hold and Buy ratings, with an average price target of $88.75 and estimates ranging from $80 to $102, implying an 11.0% potential upside.
General Insurance reported net premiums written of $7.52 billion, up 9%. Underwriting income rose 10% to $686 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.00, topping the $1.92 consensus. The accident-year combined ratio was 88.1%.
Consensus EPS for 2026 is $7.99, with shares trading at 10 times forward earnings and a book value of $77.39 per share. The company returned $904 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
Buy the first tranche between $78 and $81, add to your position at $74 to $76, but avoid buying above $83.
Friday’s 8:30 a.m. ET call will cover commercial renewal pricing, reserve development, catastrophe exposure, and the timing of the next share repurchase update.
commercial pricing can move underwriting profit quickly.
16% weight
Cheniere Energy
NYSE: LNG
87 / 100
Cheniere has increased its EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance following new production at Corpus Christi. Long-term contracts and share buybacks further bolster the outlook. After Thursday’s 4.2% gain, the stock now presents a pullback entry opportunity instead of a breakout chase.
Closed at $265.77, up 4.21%. Analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy, with an average price target of $304.45 and estimates ranging from $255 to $340, suggesting a potential upside of 14.6%.
Revenue rose 24% to $5.73 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 27% at $1.80 billion. Distributable cash flow totaled $1.2 billion, and the company delivered 184 cargoes, a 19% increase.
For 2026, the company projects EBITDA between $7.90 billion and $8.40 billion, and DCF ranging from $5.30 billion to $5.80 billion, with output estimated at 53 to 54 MTPA. The market capitalization stands at 10.1 times the DCF midpoint.
Initial buy range: $258–$267; consider adding between $245–$252; avoid purchases above $272.
Corpus Christi Train 7 to deliver its first LNG cargo in 2027, with updates on contract margins, cargo routing, maintenance schedule, and ongoing share buybacks.
changes can produce large earnings swings. Expansion spending remains substantial.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Valuation | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $261.10 | 2026 guide midpoint $12.00 | 21.8× guide EPS | $351.24 | +34.5% | $255–$265 |
| AER | $155.24 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.2× guide EPS | $179.30 | +15.5% | $151–$157 |
| DIS | $104.68 | FY2026 consensus $6.85 | 15.3× forward EPS | $127.00 | +21.3% | $102–$106 |
| AIG | $79.97 | 2026 consensus $7.99 | 10.0× forward EPS | $88.75 | +11.0% | $78–$81 |
| LNG | $265.77 | 2026 DCF midpoint $5.55bn | 10.1× market cap / DCF | $304.45 | +14.6% | $258–$267 |
AIG released its results after Thursday’s market close, so the table reflects its regular-session closing price. Price targets for Constellation and Cheniere may be updated following their latest reports. Cheniere’s GAAP EPS is affected by derivative adjustments, so distributable cash flow is used in the table instead. Price targets represent analyst estimates and are not guaranteed returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Results and forecast adjustments
Cash flow and balance sheet
Valuation versus projections
Entry quality remains consistent following the move.
Short-term event risk
Wait for the 08:30 ET payroll report, then build positions in three tranches.
Use limit orders. If the 10-year yield rises above 4.75% or the S&P 500 drops more than 1% at the open, postpone the first tranche until after the first hour of trading. AIG’s call starts at 08:30 ET. Maintain LNG below its model weight unless the price moves into the specified range.
NYSE: NET
EXCELLENT QUARTER, DO NOT CHASE
Revenue rose 36% to $696.1 million, prompting an increase in full-year guidance. Shares jumped more than 15% after hours, valuing the stock at over 260 times the midpoint of the updated $1.25 to $1.26 EPS forecast.
NYSE: CACI
RESULTS STRONG, ENTRY GONE
Shares finished at $628.79, climbing 21.4% after the company surpassed cash flow and FY2027 guidance forecasts. The stock is now roughly 4% below the current analyst target of $653.50, ahead of upcoming estimate revisions.
NYSE: MSI
QUALITY, WAIT FOR A RESET
Shares climbed 8.2% to $474.07 after management raised its outlook. The closing price reflects 26.8 times the midpoint of the updated EPS guidance, narrowing the margin of safety seen on Friday.
6.4 / 10
Valuations remain moderately elevated. The list steers clear of the widest earnings gaps, but payrolls, high-yield bonds, and oil prices could shift valuations rapidly. AerCap and AIG are trimming duration, while CEG and LNG bring exposure to energy and geopolitics.
Thursday’s index declines were modest, but market breadth narrowed. The 10-year yield rose to 4.67% and Brent crude climbed above $82, tightening financial conditions. The upcoming payroll report could recalibrate expectations for the Federal Reserve’s trajectory and impact equity valuations before the market opens.