NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 15:07 EDT — Nasdaq trading underway.
- Shares of nLIGHT fell 23.8% to $57.51 during Friday afternoon trading.
- An initial estimate indicates the equity-value drop is close to $1.1 billion, approximately 63 times greater than the postponed revenue.
- Needham, William Blair and Stifel on Friday reiterated their Buy ratings.
Shares in nLIGHT dropped by almost 25% on Friday following management’s announcement of an optics shortage. The company postponed roughly $17 million of product revenue to upcoming quarters.
The gap is significant. An initial estimate indicates the loss in value is around $1.1 billion, about 63 times greater than the postponed sales.
The ratio extends beyond a single quarter, indicating that investors are factoring in risks tied to supply duration and execution, rather than just timing of shipments. Management noted that execution in the fourth quarter is still uncertain.
The earnings call indicated a third-quarter midpoint of $68 million, representing a 17.7% decline from the previous quarter. The deferred sum accounts for one-fourth of this figure. Including the deferred amount brings the total to $85 million, reflecting a 2.9% increase over the second quarter.
Breakdown of third-quarter guidance
| Metric | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 midpoint | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.6 million | $68.0 million | -17.7% |
| Revenue plus deferred shipments* | $82.6 million | $85.0 million | +2.9% |
| Gross margin | 31.1% | 27.0% | -4.1 points |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $10.7 million | $4.0 million | -62.7% |
This $85 million estimate is based on an initial reporter assessment and does not represent official company guidance. Midpoints for guidance refer to the midpoints of the ranges specified by management.
Chief Executive Scott Keeney stated that nLIGHT “would’ve guided higher” if not for the constraint. He attributed the bottleneck to commodity optics and increased Chinese oversight of dual-use products. Investing.com
Chief Financial Officer Joe Corso stated that the primary burden is on commercial products. According to him, the resolution may occur swiftly or could require “months to quarters.” Reduced production will further diminish fixed-cost absorption. Investing.com
Strong demand continued. Revenue for the second quarter hit an all-time high of $82.6 million, and product sales climbed to $59.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled.
Operating comparison for the second quarter
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.6 million | $61.7 million | +33.8% |
| Product revenue | $59.4 million | $40.8 million | +45.4% |
| Aerospace and defence revenue | $57.3 million | $40.7 million | +40.8% |
| Gross margin | 31.1% | 29.9% | +1.2 points |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $10.7 million | $5.6 million | +93.4% |
Aerospace and defence accounted for 69.4% of revenue in the quarter. Keeney stated that revenue, margin and adjusted EBITDA were “at or above our expectations.” SEC
Rival shares headed in the opposite direction. This contrast suggests that nLIGHT’s decline is an isolated issue, not part of an industry-wide downturn among laser providers.
Laser sector comparison for Friday
| Company | Latest price | Friday move | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| nLIGHT NASDAQ:LASR | $57.51 | down 23.8% | $3.45 billion |
| IPG Photonics Corp. NASDAQ:IPGP | $89.99 | up 3.8% | $3.86 billion |
| Coherent Corp. NYSE:COHR | $376.55 | rallied 12.7% | $73.67 billion |
Most recent intraday quotes shown.
Sell-side analysts maintained their ratings. Needham lowered estimates for the latter half of 2026 and for 2027, but held its Buy rating and $90 price target. The firm noted that defence operations seemed unchanged.
Latest analyst ratings
| Firm and analyst | Recommendation | Action | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus, division of Stifel Financial Corp. NYSE:SF — Jonathan Siegmann | Buy | Maintained | $85 | Aug. 7 |
| Needham — James Ricchiuti | Buy | Maintained | $90 | Aug. 7 |
| William Blair — Louie DiPalma | Buy | Maintained | Not issued | Aug. 7 |
| Craig-Hallum — Greg Palm | Buy | Reiterated | $100 | July 9 |
Google Finance showed six recent Buy ratings, with no analysts assigning Holds or Sells. The average target price, at $91.80, was roughly 60% higher than the stock’s Friday intraday level.
The long-term outlook depends on the Joint Laser Weapon System program. In July, the first contract was valued at $44 million, with a maximum potential of $627 million. Company executives anticipate revenue in the current quarter and a more substantial impact in 2027.
nLIGHT’s liquidity offers it time to approve new suppliers. The company closed June with $330.8 million in cash and investments. It also paid back a $20 million draw from its credit line and delivered $20.7 million in operating cash flow for the quarter.
Risks are focused on optics linked to China, as well as supplier approval and delivery schedules. A further delay may push fourth-quarter revenue and worsen under-absorption of fixed costs.
The next key indicator is straightforward. Investors require the deferred shipments to generate revenue instead of continuing to move from one quarter to the next.
Related articles: NASDAQ:LASR
