TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Five U.S.-listed stocks to watch on Wednesday, August 12, following the July CPI report and recent earnings releases. The selection highlights companies with upward estimate revisions, solid free cash flow, and prices that remain attractive for phased buying. Stocks with significant opening gaps are excluded. All reference prices are based on Tuesday’s closing levels.
Constructive • use limits after CPI
7,754.03 • +0.34%
26,614.50 • +0.64%
53,830.62 • +0.07%
+0.1% MoM • +3.4% YoY
4.66%
$82.94 • -0.31%
July inflation figures were in line with expectations. Headline CPI increased 0.1% for the month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.5%. Stocks opened higher, but the 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 4.66%. This environment favors companies generating steady earnings and cash flow, but doesn’t warrant paying steep premiums for AI infrastructure stocks trading at double-digit multiples.
24% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
95 / 100
AerCap stands out for its strong combination of earnings quality, cash flow, and valuation. Adjusted return on equity hit 18%, guidance was raised, and share buybacks have surpassed $1.4 billion so far this year. Shares are priced at less than nine times projected earnings. The upcoming $0.40 ex-dividend adjustment on Wednesday reflects only the dividend payment, not a shift in the company’s fundamentals.
Shares closed Tuesday at $149.31. Analysts have a consensus rating of ‘Strong Buy,’ with an average price target of $179.30, ranging from $165 to $190. This suggests an implied upside of 20.1%.
Adjusted net income came in at $811 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $5.14. Operating cash flow reached $1.5 billion, while asset sales totaled $1.4 billion. The gain-on-sale margin stood at 20%.
The company forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS at approximately $16.80, implying 8.9 times projected earnings and 1.25 times book value, with an expected adjusted return on equity of 18%.
Initial buy range: $146–$151. Add more between $140–$144. Avoid chasing above $154.
Lease yields, airline credit quality, aircraft sale margins, and additional share buybacks are in focus as the stock trades close to the model’s fair value estimate.
can reduce returns. Gains on asset sales will not repeat evenly each quarter.
22% weight
Uber
NYSE: UBER
93 / 100
Uber is now generating sufficient cash to fund its own growth, no longer dependent on a rising share price. Gross bookings increased by 24%, adjusted EBITDA climbed 33%, and trailing free cash flow topped $10 billion. Shares are trading at about 17.6 times projected 2027 earnings—a reasonable valuation given current growth, provided mobility and delivery margins continue to improve.
Shares closed Tuesday at $78.54. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus price target of $102.59. Targets range from $70 to $150, suggesting an implied upside of 30.6%.
Gross bookings rose 24% to $58.0 billion, with revenue up 12% to $14.19 billion. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 33% to $2.82 billion, and free cash flow reached $2.79 billion.
Third-quarter bookings are projected between $58.25 billion and $60.25 billion. Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 are forecast at $0.84 to $0.88. Analysts expect full-year 2027 EPS at $4.46, valuing the company at 17.6 times forward earnings.
Start buying at $76.50–$79.50, add more between $72.50 and $75, but avoid purchases above $82.
Margins in mobility and delivery, free cash flow conversion, a lower share count, and expenses from autonomous vehicle partnerships.
systems. Operations were not disrupted, but the disclosure adds data-security risk.
Autonomous-vehicle competition also requires continued investment.
20% weight
Taiwan Semiconductor
NYSE: TSM
91 / 100
TSMC’s July revenue offers a real-time snapshot of AI chip demand, rather than a forward-looking projection. Revenue climbed 44.7% year over year, and gross margin for the most recent quarter reached 67.7%. Analysts have significantly raised their earnings forecasts for 2027. The stock earns a full position only within the entry range following Wednesday’s gap.
Shares closed Tuesday at $422.06. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a consensus target price of $545.45. Price targets range from $440 to $650, suggesting an implied upside of 29.2%.
Second-quarter revenue reached $40.20 billion, with a gross margin of 67.7% and an operating margin of 60.3%. July revenue came in at NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from a year earlier.
Third-quarter revenue is projected between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, with a gross margin of 65% to 67%. Analysts expect full-year 2027 earnings per share to reach $21.74, valuing the stock at 19.4 times forward earnings.
Initial buy range: $418–$427; add on dips to $404–$412; avoid buying above $435
October revenue projections, advanced packaging capacity, costs related to ramping up 2-nanometre production, and the potential margin impact of overseas fabs.
can overwhelm otherwise strong operating results. New overseas capacity costs more.
18% weight
AIG
NYSE: AIG
88 / 100
AIG offers earnings growth independent of the AI sector. Underwriting income increased, the combined ratio remained under 90%, and the company returned $904 million to shareholders last quarter. Shares are priced below adjusted book value and trade at less than 10 times projected 2026 earnings, providing scope for regular performance to drive returns.
Closed Tuesday at $77.31. Analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $88.80 and a range from $81 to $101, suggesting a potential upside of 14.9%.
General Insurance posted an underwriting income of $686 million, up 10%. The combined ratio was 89.0%. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.00, also up 10%. The company returned $904 million in capital.
Consensus estimates project FY2026 EPS at $8.03 and FY2027 EPS at $8.82. Shares are trading at 9.6 times expected 2026 earnings and at 0.97 times adjusted book value of $79.98 per share.
Initiate first tranche at $75.50–$78; consider adding at $72.50–$74.50; avoid buying above $80.
Key factors include trends in commercial pricing, catastrophe losses, reserve developments, and the continuation of share buybacks below adjusted book value.
erase several quarters of underwriting progress. Commercial pricing is becoming selective.
16% weight
Ferguson
NYSE: FERG
86 / 100
Ferguson topped quarterly profit forecasts and lifted its full-year sales and margin guidance, but shares slipped 4.6% on Tuesday. Investors zeroed in on a 20-basis-point drop in gross margin and muted residential demand. The pullback could offer a better entry point for a distributor that continues to gain share in non-residential and large-project markets.
Shares closed Tuesday at $251.51, down 4.59%. The stock holds a consensus Outperform rating, with an average price target of $286.16 and estimates ranging from $235 to $325, implying a potential 13.8% upside.
Sales rose 4.6% to $8.75 billion. Gross margin slipped 20 basis points to 31.0%. Adjusted operating profit increased 2.9% to $932 million, while adjusted EPS climbed 5.3% to $3.39.
The company now expects 2026 sales to grow in the mid-single digits, with an adjusted operating margin between 9.5% and 9.8%. Wall Street forecasts full-year 2027 earnings per share at $12.63, valuing the stock at 19.9 times forward earnings.
Initial tranche: $248–$254; consider adding at $238–$244; avoid buying above $260
Key factors include residential volumes, gross margin, activity in non-residential projects, as well as the timing, financing, and integration of FloWorks.
$1.6bn FloWorks transaction raises integration and leverage risk if markets weaken.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AER | $149.31 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 8.9× | $179.30 | +20.1% | $146–$151 |
| UBER | $78.54 | FY2027 consensus $4.46 | 17.6× | $102.59 | +30.6% | $76.50–$79.50 |
| TSM | $422.06 | FY2027 consensus $21.74 | 19.4× | $545.45 | +29.2% | $418–$427 |
| AIG | $77.31 | FY2026 consensus $8.03 | 9.6× | $88.80 | +14.9% | $75.50–$78 |
| FERG | $251.51 | FY2027 consensus $12.63 | 19.9× | $286.16 | +13.8% | $248–$254 |
Prices reflect Tuesday’s closing levels. Target prices and EPS forecasts represent consensus estimates. Entry bands indicate model levels and are not set as automatic orders. AerCap goes ex-dividend on Wednesday, with its $0.40 dividend impacting the opening comparison.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings results and updated forecasts
Cash flow and balance sheet
Valuation based on forecasts
Entry quality remains following the move
Short-term event risk
Use limits after the first 15 minutes; no market orders into a gap.
CPI was in line with forecasts, but elevated oil prices and long-term yields continue to constrain position sizing. Avoid initiating positions if there is an opening gap greater than 3%. Reduce initial tranches by half if the 10-year yield exceeds 4.72% or WTI climbs above $85. TSMC will stay under its model allocation unless its price moves into the target range.
NASDAQ: CRWV
WAIT FOR THE GAP TO COOL
Second-quarter revenue totaled $2.58 billion, with backlog climbing to $104.2 billion, not including over $25 billion in new commitments for the quarter. Shares jumped more than 18% in premarket trading, and capital spending for 2026 is now projected between $35 billion and $39 billion.
NASDAQ: SMCI
BETTER NUMBERS, REVIEW STILL OPEN
The company reported quarterly sales of $11.1 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 17.6%. It issued a preliminary fiscal 2027 sales forecast of $65 billion to $72 billion, pending the outcome of an independent export-control review.
NASDAQ: NBIS
CONTRACTS STRONG, PRICE EXTENDED
Second-quarter revenue reached $582.3 million. Nebius secured four contracts, each averaging over $1 billion, and reported total customer commitments exceeding $40 billion. The stock was up more than 130% for the year as of Wednesday.
NYSE: CAVA
GOOD TRAFFIC, EXPENSIVE ENTRY
Same-store sales climbed 9%, with guest traffic up 5.3%. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 30% to $54.7 million. Management maintained its full-year outlook, as shares opened lower following a double-digit earnings miss.
6.4 / 10
All five picks are based on closing prices and call for disciplined entry points, with no reliance on chasing Wednesday’s double-digit gains. Oil trading around $83 and the 10-year yield at 4.66% continue to constrain position sizes.
CPI came in as expected, without a significant disinflation surprise. Headline inflation holds at 3.4%, oil prices remain high, and AI-focused trades are crowded. Even strong quarterly results may not guarantee a positive opening for stocks.