NVIDIA Stock’s 12% August Gain Faces a 1% Earnings-Guidance Gap

NVIDIA Stock’s 12% August Gain Faces a 1% Earnings-Guidance Gap

SANTA CLARA, California, August 14, 2026, 22:48 PDT — U.S. cash markets were closed for the weekend.

  • NVIDIA closed at $225.62, up about 0.1% Friday and more than 12% in August.
  • Wall Street expects $91.9 billion of quarterly sales, only 1% above management’s guidance midpoint.
  • Edge Computing generated 7.8% of first-quarter revenue; robotics sales are not disclosed separately.

NVIDIA enters the weekend with a 12%-plus August gain. Yet the shares barely moved Friday after fresh details of its LG robotics work. The contrast matters: investors still value the company mainly on data-center execution, not humanoid-robot promise.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:NVDA

The numbers are stark. Data Center produced $75.2 billion last quarter, or 92.1% of total revenue. Edge Computing, which includes robotics and automotive products, supplied $6.4 billion. Robotics itself remains undisclosed.

NVIDIA finished Friday at $225.62. That was roughly 4.6% below its $236.54 record. Using the latest reported 24.2 billion shares outstanding, the closing price implies a market value near $5.46 trillion.

Friday market tapeMoveInvestor read-through
NVIDIA -0.06%Held firm before earnings
Advanced Micro Devices More than +4%AI-chip demand remained selective
Broadcom -5.94%Sharpest large-chip decline
S&P 500-0.17%Broad market eased
Friday changes from MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily. MarketWatch; IBD

LG and NVIDIA plan a next-generation bipedal humanoid for early 2027. The project will use NVIDIA’s Isaac GR00T model and Jetson Thor platform. Work also covers wheeled robots and vehicle computing. The commercial terms were not disclosed.

Chief Executive Jensen Huang said in May that “agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value.” NVIDIA then reorganized reporting around Data Center and Edge Computing. That change gives investors a cleaner, though still broad, measure of physical-AI progress. NVIDIA

Fiscal Q1 2027 platformRevenueShare of totalYear-on-year growth
Data Center$75.2 billion92.1%92%
Edge Computing$6.4 billion7.8%29%
Total$81.6 billion100%85%
Percentages use reported figures and may not sum exactly because of rounding. NVIDIA

The next hard test arrives August 26. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $2.08 a share on $91.9 billion of sales. Revenue would rise about 97% from a year earlier. Management’s midpoint is $91.0 billion.

Fiscal Q2 2027 testCompany guide / prior resultWall Street estimateGap
Revenue$91.0 billion midpoint$91.9 billion+$0.9 billion
Adjusted EPS$1.87 in fiscal Q1$2.08+11.2% sequentially
Non-GAAP gross margin75.0% guide, ±0.5 pointNot citedExecution benchmark
Company guidance and consensus estimates as available on August 14. NVIDIA; IBD

The narrow sales gap raises the bar. A consensus result would beat guidance by just 1%. Investors may therefore focus more on the next outlook, Rubin shipments and margins than the headline quarter.

Wall Street remains strongly positive. The average target of $302.83 implies roughly 34% upside from Friday’s close. Still, the range is wide. That reflects uncertainty around AI spending, China limits and the pace of Rubin deployment.

Analyst / consensusRecommendationPrice targetUpside from $225.62
Bank of AmericaBuy$35055.1%
KeyBancOverweight$33046.3%
S&P Global consensusStrong Buy$302.8334.2%
BernsteinOutperform$27521.9%
CitiBuy$27019.7%
Latest cited recommendations; targets can change without notice. BofA via IBD; KeyBanc; consensus; Bernstein; Citi

Risks: A valuation near $5.5 trillion leaves little room for a weak outlook. Delays in Rubin, tighter export rules or slower customer spending could outweigh early robotics wins. The company also does not break out robotics revenue.

For the week ahead, U.S. trading resumes Monday. The main setup is positioning before August 26 results. Robotics can support the long-term story. Near-term, the stock still trades on data-center sales, margins and forward guidance.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What kept NVIDIA shares steady around $225.62 on Friday?
NVIDIA edged down just 0.06% as the S&P 500 declined 0.17%. New robotics updates from LG reinforced the long-term integration of physical AI. Still, after a rise of over 12% in August, investors remained attentive to the August 26 earnings release.
What is the main figure to watch in NVIDIA’s August 26 earnings report?
Analysts on Wall Street are forecasting quarterly revenue at approximately $91.9 billion, just $0.9 billion, or 1%, higher than the midpoint of management’s $91.0 billion guidance. Updates on guidance for the next quarter, Rubin shipments and gross margin could be more significant for investors than a modest earnings beat.
How significant is robotics for NVIDIA at present?
Robotics holds strategic significance but is not broken out individually in disclosures. Edge Computing, encompassing both robotics and automotive offerings, brought in $6.4 billion for the last quarter, accounting for 7.8% of total revenue. Data Center contributed 92.1%.
What is currently the main risk facing NVIDIA shareholders?
Valuation stands out as the key risk. Based on Friday’s closing price and updated share count, the market capitalization approaches $5.46 trillion. Slower AI investments, Rubin postponements, lower margins or stricter export restrictions may offset advances in robotics at this stage.
Shan Ahmed Khan

Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key developments influencing global financial markets and emerging industries.

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