WARSAW, August 17, 2026, 00:12 CEST — U.S. markets remain shut over the weekend.
- Nokia ADRs extended their gains to a fourth consecutive session on Friday.
- Trading volume remained roughly 31% under its 50-day average.
- Roughly €1.4 billion in AI orders could be converted over the next 12 months.
Nokia Oyj NYSE:NOK American depositary receipts closed at $10.76 on Friday, increasing 1.89%. This marked a fourth straight day of gains for the stock, despite the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.28%.
The recovery has yet to generate widespread trading confidence. On Friday, 68.2 million shares changed hands, compared with a 50-day average of 99.6 million. This marks a 31.5% decrease.
Nokia’s order book shows the clearest boost. In the second quarter, AI and cloud bookings totaled €2.8 billion. Executives anticipate around half of that, or approximately €1.4 billion, will be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months.
| Friday comparison | Move | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Nokia Oyj NYSE:NOK | +1.89% | Shares advanced for a fourth session |
| Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL | +0.22% | Underperformed Nokia |
| Motorola Solutions Inc. NYSE:MSI | +0.32% | Underperformed Nokia |
| BlackBerry Ltd. NYSE:BB | -1.00% | Stock declined |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.28% | Main tech index slipped |
The conversion number is over triple the second-quarter AI and cloud revenue of €446 million. While this does not assure profitability, it offers investors a clear benchmark to assess performance over the coming year.
Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated that demand continues to be robust, but supply remains the main limitation for the industry. He noted that extended lead times are prompting customers to commit to longer-term orders.
| Q2 2026 measure | Result | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| Net sales | €4.815 billion | up 8% |
| Comparable operating profit | €434 million | rose 18% |
| Comparable operating margin | 9.0% | improved by 70 basis points |
| AI and cloud sales | €446 million | surged 105% |
| Reported operating result | €50 million loss | from a €147 million profit |
The adjusted numbers and reported results diverged. Comparable profit exceeded the €382 million estimate from LSEG. However, accelerated restructuring led to a reported operating loss.
The distinction will be significant in the coming week. Investors face a choice between seeing near-term spending as a purchase of long-lasting optical-network capacity, or as a move that conceals softer cash fundamentals.
| Analyst recommendations | Count | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 13 | 72% |
| Hold | 3 | 17% |
| Sell | 2 | 11% |
| Overall view | Moderate Buy | 18 analysts |
MarketBeat reports an average 12-month target price of $12.57, suggesting a possible upside of roughly 17% from Friday’s closing price. The targets vary significantly, spanning from $5 to $21.
| Delivery test | Current marker | What investors need next |
|---|---|---|
| AI and cloud bookings | €2.8 billion for Q2 | Roughly €1.4 billion recognized within the following 12 months |
| Q3 net revenue | Company forecast | Growth of 3% to 7% quarter-on-quarter |
| Network Infrastructure | Outlook for 2026 | Sales increase between 12% and 14% |
| Free-cash-flow conversion | Projection for 2026 | Between 55% and 75% of comparable operating income |
Nokia’s share price remains 38.34% under its June 3 peak of $17.45. To reach that level again, shares would need to climb approximately 62%. This shortfall puts greater weight on order conversion than on a brief rally.
Risks: Potential sales slowdowns may be caused by supply limitations, high-priced memory chips and changes in customer spending. Nokia anticipates restructuring-related cash outflows between €700 million and €800 million during the year.
The next clear indicator is increased volume as Nokia converts its AI backlog to revenue, margin, and cash. Absent this, Friday’s gains look encouraging yet not conclusive.
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