WASHINGTON, August 24, 2026, 14:57 EDT — U.S. markets remained open for regular trading hours.
- The 2027 Social Security COLA is anticipated on October 14, following the release of September inflation figures.
- Latest early projections are between 3.4% and 3.6%, surpassing the 2.8% rise paid in 2026.
- AARP calculates that a 3.5% increase would raise the average retired worker’s monthly benefit by around $73.
- Walmart shares rose roughly 1.4% to $104.89 at 14:30 EDT, recovering after a post-earnings selloff last week.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is anticipated to be announced on October 14. Projections currently suggest an increase in the range of 3.4% to 3.6%, though the outcome depends on two forthcoming inflation reports.
The projected range would surpass this year’s 2.8% adjustment. According to AARP, a 3.5% rise could boost the average retired worker’s monthly benefit by roughly $73. The change would take effect with payments starting in January.
The investor perspective is more limited. While a higher nominal benefit offers moderate backing for spending in 2027, its primary function is to offset expenses that have already occurred. This does not constitute the introduction of a new stimulus payment.
| 2027 COLA tracker | Preliminary estimate | Change from prior estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Johnson | 3.4% | Previous estimate was 3.7% |
| AARP | 3.5% | Previous estimate was 3.6% |
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.6% | Earlier forecast was 3.8% |
The July CPI-W increased by 3.4% compared to the previous year. This month accounts for one third of the quarter used in the calculation. The August CPI will be released on September 11, with the September data expected to finalize the computation on October 14.
The projection range narrowed with inflation slowing. Headline CPI-U increased 0.1% in July and was up 3.4% year over year. Energy prices declined 1.5% in the month, while shelter costs moved higher.
| COLA year | Adjustment | Average retired-worker impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.2% | In effect |
| 2025 | 2.5% | In effect |
| 2026 | 2.8% | Estimated increase of roughly $56 per month at announcement |
| 2027 | 3.4%–3.6% | Early estimate; midpoint from AARP suggests near $73 |
The impact of the change is most significant at the margin for retailers. Walmart Inc. NASDAQ:WMT has just posted its weakest U.S. comparable-sales growth in six years. Company executives pointed to restrained spending among lower-income consumers and elevated fuel prices.
| Walmart Q2 FY2027 measure | Result | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $187.9 billion, +5.9% | Company scale unaffected |
| Walmart U.S. comparable sales | +2.6% | Growth has slowed |
| U.S. transactions | +1.5% | Customer visits continued to rise |
| U.S. average ticket | +1.1% | Average spend edged higher |
| Global e-commerce | +23% | Online sales provided support |
At 14:30 EDT on Monday, Walmart shares hovered around $104.89, marking an increase of about 1.4% from Friday’s closing price. The rise partially offset Thursday’s 9% earnings decline. Monday’s gains were not attributed to the COLA outlook.
The retailer increased its fiscal 2027 sales-growth outlook to 4%–5% and forecast adjusted earnings per share of $2.80–$2.87. Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey stated the company plans to evaluate both second- and third-quarter results in tandem, as price investment is being supported by tariff refunds.
| Analyst / firm | Rating | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Tarlowe / Jefferies | Buy | $120 | Aug. 24 |
| Krisztina Katai / Deutsche Bank | Hold | $113 | Aug. 21 |
| Bobby Griffin / Raymond James | Buy | $130 | Aug. 21 |
| Greg Melich / Evercore ISI | Buy | $125 | Aug. 21 |
| David Bellinger / Mizuho | Buy | $130 | Aug. 21 |
The impact is not limited to Walmart. Dollar General Corporation NYSE:DG is more reliant on lower-income shoppers. CVS Health Corporation NYSE:CVS encounters another challenge: increases in Medicare premiums may take up some of the gains retirees receive from higher COLA payments.
The headline figure can be deceptive. Social Security bases calculations on the CPI-W, rather than the CPI-U used by many investors. The adjustment looks at third-quarter averages, meaning a single weak month is not enough to determine the outcome.
Risks: Energy prices in August or September have the potential to shift the final COLA beyond current expectations. Net benefits could be lowered by Medicare deductions. If costs for food, rent and fuel take priority, retailers might not see a boost in consumer spending.
The next important date to watch is September 11. In the meantime, investors are advised to consider 3.4%–3.6% as a provisional range rather than a guaranteed increase.
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