Semtech shares gain 4.3% before market open as $410 million revenue forecast beats expectations by 14%

Semtech shares gain 4.3% before market open as $410 million revenue forecast beats expectations by 14%

CAMARILLO, California, August 26, 2026, 06:32 EDT

  • Semtech was priced at $133.00 ahead of Wednesday’s opening, an increase of 4.3% compared with the previous session’s close.
  • Revenue guidance for the third quarter was set at $410 million, roughly 14% higher than consensus estimates.
  • Data-center revenue for the quarter hit $100 million, an increase of 91% compared with the same period last year.

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) gained 4.3% ahead of the market open after projecting a stronger uptick in growth. Shares were priced at $133.00 at 06:30 EDT, compared to Tuesday’s closing figure of $127.52 premarket quote.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SLAB

The initial jump boosted Semtech’s implied equity value by roughly $510 million. This came after a 5.5% gain during the regular session. Shares are up 10.0% from Monday’s close of $120.91.

Semtech forecasts third-quarter revenue at $410 million, give or take $5 million. Analysts on Wall Street projected $359.9 million. The midpoint of the guidance is 13.9% higher than consensus, and 19.9% above revenue from the second quarter.

The company projected adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share, with a margin of error of three cents either way. Analysts had predicted 73 cents. The midpoint topped the consensus estimate by 43.8% FactSet comparison.

Investor measureReported or guidedConsensus or prior yearDifference
Q2 revenue$341.9 million$328.7 million4.0% above
Q2 adjusted EPS$0.71$0.6116.4% higher
Q3 revenue midpoint$410.0 million$359.9 million13.9% higher
Q3 adjusted EPS midpoint$1.05$0.7343.8% higher

Revenue for the second quarter hit an all-time high of $341.9 million, marking a 33% increase year-on-year and a 17% rise from the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings surged 73% to 71 cents per share.

Data-center revenue reached an all-time high of $100 million, rising 91% compared to a year earlier and accounting for 29.2% of overall sales. Infrastructure revenue climbed 69% to $124 million earnings-call metrics.

Revenue from LoRa-enabled products climbed 58% to $58 million. Sales in IoT Systems and Connectivity moved up 11% to $98.3 million. Sales of semiconductor products rose 44% to $243.5 million.

Adjusted gross margin rose to 54.5%, compared to 53.2% in the prior year. Adjusted operating margin increased by 560 basis points, reaching 24.4%. The company’s outlook for third-quarter gross margin at 58.3% points to additional leverage.

The $62 million sale of the cellular-module unit highlights the margin narrative. The segment, now listed as held-for-sale, generated $48.1 million in sales and $10.9 million in adjusted gross profit for the quarter. That amounts to a margin of 22.7%, which is notably lower than the rest of Semtech’s operations.

Free cash flow climbed 48% to reach $61.4 million, more than doubling from the previous quarter. CEO Hong Hou stated that growing bookings and an all-time high backlog signal “a strong inflection in growth” filed results.

Analysts approached the release holding a Strong Buy consensus. Out of fifteen analysts, twelve rated it Strong Buy, one assigned a Buy rating, and two issued Hold ratings. The average price target stood at $202.92, spanning from $155 to $230 analyst forecasts.

Risks: Premarket prices may move in the opposite direction during less liquid trading. The outlook depends on timely data-center demand and bookings conversion. Margin growth could face challenges from supply limitations, reliance on key customers, and successful completion of divestitures.

The main test is underway. Semtech faces the task of converting its 14% guidance lead into actual shipments and revenue. Its record backlog offers proof for investors, while also heightening expectations.

Company · Stock move · Earnings

Semtech's guide resets the growth curve

A record quarter matters. The larger signal is a $410 million revenue guide that sits 14% above consensus, supported by 91% data-center growth and expanding margins.

NASDAQ: SMTCUpdated August 26, 2026, 06:32 EDT
Premarket price
$133.00
August 26, 2026, 06:30 EDT
Premarket move
+4.30%
+$5.48 vs August 25 close
Two-session move
+10.00%
$120.91 to $133.00; August 24–26
Implied equity value
$12.39B
Calculated at $133.00; 06:30 EDT

Price reaction

$134$127$120 $120.91$127.52$133.00 Aug. 24 closeAug. 25 closeAug. 26, 06:30 EDT
The premarket rise added about $510 million after a $616 million regular-session gain. August 25 regular volume was at least 6.67 million shares, about twice the three-month average.

Q2 FY2027 scorecard

MetricReportedComparison
Revenue$341.9M+33% YoY; 4.0% beat
Adjusted EPS$0.71+73% YoY; 16.4% beat
Adjusted gross margin54.5%+130 bps QoQ
Adjusted operating margin24.4%+560 bps YoY
Free cash flow$61.4M+48% YoY
Quarter ended July 26, 2026; reported August 25.

Revenue engines

Semiconductors
$243.5M
Infrastructure
$124.0M
Data center
$100.0M
IoT systems
$98.3M
LoRa-enabled
$58.0M
EngineYoY growth
Data center+91%
Infrastructure+69%
LoRa-enabled+58%
IoT Systems and Connectivity+11%
Q2 FY2027 revenue; categories overlap and should not be summed.

Margin bridge

MeasureQ2 FY2026Q1 FY2027Q2 FY2027Q3 guide
Adjusted gross margin53.2%53.0%54.5%58.3% ±100 bps
Adjusted operating margin18.8%20.4%24.4%≈31.0% midpoint calculation
Adjusted gross margin excluding held-for-sale unit63.9% ±100 bps

The held-for-sale cellular-module business generated $48.1 million of Q2 revenue and $10.9 million of adjusted gross profit. Its implied 22.7% margin diluted the consolidated profile.

Company results and calculations published August 25, 2026.

Analyst expectations

ConsensusStrong Buy
Strong Buy / Buy / Hold12 / 1 / 2
Average target$202.92
Target range$155–$230
Upside from $13352.6%
15 analyst ratings available August 26, 2026; upside calculated at 06:30 EDT.

What changes the thesis

Upside triggerBacklog converts near $410M
Upside triggerData-center growth stays above 70%
Downside triggerBookings slip before shipment
Downside triggerGross margin misses 57.3%
Execution riskDivestiture or supply delays
Scenario markers, not company forecasts.

Why the stock is up

Semtech beat the completed quarter, but the forward numbers moved the valuation. The $410 million revenue midpoint stands 14% above consensus. The $1.05 adjusted-EPS midpoint is 44% higher. Data-center revenue growth and the planned removal of a low-margin unit make the margin expansion measurable.

Risk lens

Premarket liquidity remains thin. The forecast depends on bookings becoming shipments on schedule. Hyperscaler demand, customer concentration and limited supplier capacity can move timing between quarters. A high-growth valuation also leaves less room for execution errors.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company working with customers worldwide. His experience spans satellite communications, telecommunications and technology ventures. He graduated from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) and writes about space technology, artificial intelligence, stocks and the technology companies and industries he follows. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook or LinkedIn.

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