NEW YORK, September 1, 2026, 08:29 EDT
- At 08:29 EDT, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury stood at 4.788%, rising 3.4 basis points.
- The increase in the 10-year surpassed the two-year gain by 1.8 basis points.
- Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 1.21%, almost double the loss seen in S&P 500 futures.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury (INDEXCBOE:TNX) rose to 4.788% early on Tuesday, sending the principal equity discount rate near 4.8% ahead of Wall Street’s opening bell.
The increase was 3.4 basis points from the market benchmark set on Monday. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.21%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.62%. The wider difference added extra pressure on growth valuations that are sensitive to interest rates.
10-year yield: early-session range
Percent yield;
Source: TradingView. Streaming yield snapshot collected at the time shown.
The repricing was focused around the 10-year mark. The yield on the two-year note was at 4.362%, rising 1.6 basis points. The yield on the 30-year climbed to 5.272%, gaining 2.5 basis points.
The trend holds significance. The increase in the 10-year outpaced the two-year by 1.8 basis points. The gap between two-year and 10-year yields expanded to 42.6 basis points.
Yield curve snapshot
Yield and move from the prior market reference at
Source: TradingView market snapshots for two-year, 10-year and 30-year yields. Bars use a 0%–6% scale.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve ended Monday with the two-year note at 4.34%, the 10-year at 4.75%, and the 30-year at 5.25%. Since January 2, the 10-year yield has climbed by 56 basis points.
The 10-year yield on Monday climbed to its highest point since January 15, 2025. Fresh clashes between the U.S. and Iran brought oil-related inflation concerns back into focus for bond markets.
Brent crude finished Monday at $90.49, rising 2.71%. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.83% to $85.76. Increased energy prices may impede disinflation and maintain high term yields.
Anticipation around policy was another source of pressure. On Monday, Fed funds futures indicated a 66% probability of a rate hike in September. According to CNBC, Barclays economists projected two 25-basis-point increases this year.
UBS positioned itself on the opposing side. Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele maintained the view that rates would remain steady. He stated that the figures “reinforces the case for locking in yields.”
The shift in rates was reflected in risk assets. Nasdaq-100 futures lagged behind S&P 500 futures by 0.58 percentage point. The dollar index rose 0.20% in the same period.
Cross-asset rate transmission
Market move at
Source: TradingView snapshots for NQ futures, ES futures and DXY. Futures data were delayed by 10 minutes. Bars use a 1.5% absolute-move scale.
The ISM manufacturing data and JOLTS report on Tuesday present the next key indicators. The August payrolls are due Friday. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet September 15–16.
Risks: A reduction in Middle East tensions may lead to pullbacks in oil and yields. Weaker employment figures could lower the likelihood of a rate increase. Robust activity numbers could maintain focus on the 4.8% level.
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