On December 3, 2025, a flurry of new forecasts reshaped expectations for the 2026 U.S. housing market. Realtor.com released its national 2026 outlook, CBS News spotlighted 22 major metros where home prices are expected to fall, Bright MLS called 2026 a “reset year, not a rebound,” and mortgage analysts outlined how far interest rates might actually drop. [1]
Together, these reports paint a picture of a market that is finally loosening up for buyers — but in a slow, uneven way that depends heavily on where you live.
Key takeaways from today’s 2026 housing forecasts
- National home prices are still expected to rise modestly in 2026 — about 2.2% according to Realtor.com, after a 2.0% gain in 2025. [2]
- Inflation is projected to run faster than home prices, meaning real (inflation‑adjusted) home prices should fall slightly for a second year, offering a bit of relief for buyers. [3]
- Mortgage rates are widely expected to hover in the low‑6% range in 2026, with most forecasts clustering around 6.1%–6.4% for a 30‑year fixed loan. [4]
- Realtor.com projects existing‑home sales will rise only slightly, up 1.7% to about 4.13 million transactions, still far below pre‑pandemic norms. [5]
- In 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, prices are forecast to decline in 2026, with the sharpest drops in parts of Florida and the Western Sun Belt. [6]
- Midwest and some Northeast markets are expected to remain comparatively strong, while parts of the South and West cool after pandemic‑era booms. [7]
- Rents are forecast to edge lower again, and increased multifamily supply should push vacancy rates back toward long‑term norms. [8]
For buyers, the message is clear: 2026 probably won’t be a fire‑sale year, but it could feel like the first genuinely more “normal” market since COVID‑era volatility.
Realtor.com: A slow march back toward a “balanced” market
Realtor.com’s 2026 National Housing Forecast is the backbone of today’s coverage and the CBS News story you referenced. [9]
Here’s what their economists expect for next year:
- Mortgage rates
- Home prices & sales
- Inventory & building
- Rents & homeownership
- Rents are expected to decline 1% in 2026, following small drops in 2024–2025, as a wave of new multifamily supply lifts vacancy rates back toward the long‑term ~7.2% average. [16]
- The homeownership rate is projected to slip to about 64.8%, down from 65.6% in 2024, as affordability challenges keep some households renting longer. [17]
Realtor.com calls this the “most balanced housing market since the pandemic,” with neither buyers nor sellers holding a decisive edge in many regions. [18]
The 22 large metros where home prices are forecast to fall in 2026
CBS News and multiple local outlets picked up one eye‑catching detail from Realtor.com’s report: 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metros are expected to see home prices fall next year. [19]
According to that coverage, most of these markets are in the Southeast and the West — the same places that saw some of the hottest pandemic‑era price spikes. [20]
Realtor.com’s analysis, as summarized by CBS and The National Desk, highlights these metros as candidates for 2026 price declines: [21]
Florida
- Jacksonville
- Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach
- Orlando
- Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville
- Lakeland–Winter Haven
- Clearwater (Tampa Bay area)
- North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton
- Cape Coral–Fort Myers
Other Southeast & Midwest
- Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Roswell, Georgia
- Raleigh, North Carolina
- Des Moines, Iowa
- Omaha–Council Bluffs (Nebraska–Iowa)
Mountain West & West
- Colorado Springs, Colorado
- Denver–Aurora–Lakewood, Colorado
- Tucson, Arizona
- Phoenix–Mesa–Scottsdale, Arizona
- San Francisco–Oakland–Hayward, California
- Sacramento–Roseville–Arden‑Arcade, California
- Stockton–Lodi, California
- Boise City, Idaho
- Spokane–Spokane Valley, Washington
- Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue, Washington
Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel told CBS that these places “saw a huge frenzy during the pandemic,” and the new forecast reflects demand “coming back down to earth” as inventory grows and some buyers pull back. [22]
The biggest projected drops are in Cape Coral–Fort Myers (‑10.2%) and North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton (‑8.9%), according to CBS’ breakdown of the report. [23]
Importantly, Realtor.com still expects prices to rise in the other 78 of the 100 largest cities, with a median price gain of around 4% across those markets — just much more slowly than in recent years. [24]
Winners and “steady” markets: Midwest and Rust Belt resilience
While some Sun Belt metros cool, other regions are still seeing tight inventory and firm prices.
A separate analysis highlighted by Newsweek describes the U.S. housing market heading into a “new era” in 2026, marked by a sharp divide between overheated Sun Belt markets and more stable Rust Belt and Northeast/Midwest cities. [25]
Real estate analyst Nick Gerli argues that:
- Parts of Florida, Texas and Arizona now have much higher mortgage‑cost‑to‑income ratios than before the pandemic and decade‑high inventory, which is contributing to ongoing price softness. [26]
- Meanwhile, cities like Cleveland, Hartford, Albany and Chicago still have relatively tight inventories and more sustainable demand, keeping prices supported even amid a national slowdown. [27]
Local coverage based on Realtor.com’s forecast also highlights Toledo, Ohio, as an example of an affordable Midwestern market that could see nation‑leading home‑price growth in 2026, attracting price‑conscious buyers despite ongoing inventory challenges. [28]
Bright MLS, which covers a large slice of the Mid‑Atlantic, reaches a similar conclusion: price growth should be strongest in “supply‑challenged markets across the Midwest and Northwest” and in certain tech hubs like San Jose and San Francisco, while parts of Florida, Texas, Seattle, Portland and Denver are expected to cool. [29]
In other words, 2026 is shaping up as a story of divergence:
- Some boomtowns are drifting into mild correction.
- Historically cheaper, slower‑burn markets — especially in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast — could quietly outperform.
Mortgage rate outlook for 2026: Low‑6% is the consensus
Today’s reports also sharpen the picture for mortgage rates, which are arguably the single biggest force driving housing demand.
Several forecasts now cluster around the low‑6% range for 30‑year fixed mortgages in 2026:
- Realtor.com: Average 6.3% in 2026, down from 6.6% in 2025. [30]
- Redfin’s “Great Housing Reset” forecast: Also projects rates around 6.3%, with occasional dips below 6% but no return to pandemic‑era 2–3% mortgages. [31]
- Bright MLS: Expects rates to stay just above 6%, slipping from roughly 6.25% in early 2026 to about 6.15% by Q4. [32]
- Fannie Mae vs. Mortgage Bankers Association: One recent roundup notes Fannie Mae sees rates at about 5.9% by the end of 2026, while the MBA projects something closer to 6.4%. [33]
Right now, as of early December 2025, Zillow’s national average 30‑year fixed rate is about 6.11%, with a 15‑year fixed near 5.52%. [34]
Most analysts are assuming:
- Gradual Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2025–2026 if inflation continues to cool and growth slows. [35]
- Still‑elevated inflation and fiscal uncertainty, which may prevent mortgage rates from falling dramatically below 6% in the near term. [36]
The bottom line for borrowers: meaningful relief compared with 2023–2024 highs, but no rewind to ultra‑cheap money.
2026 as a “reset year,” not a boom or bust
If there’s a single phrase that captures today’s outlook, it’s Bright MLS’s description of 2026 as “a reset year, not a rebound year.” [37]
Their forecast — which broadly lines up with Realtor.com’s — calls for:
- Existing‑home sales up about 9% to 4.51 million, still well below pre‑pandemic levels. [38]
- Inventory up nearly 11%, to around 1.43 million homes for sale, pushing supply back above 2019 levels. [39]
- Median home price rising only 0.9%, to roughly $417,560 nationally. [40]
World Property Journal, summarizing Realtor.com’s forecast, emphasizes that the typical monthly payment on a median‑priced home is expected to fall by about 1.3% from 2025, thanks to slightly lower rates and slower price growth — one of the first meaningful affordability improvements since 2022. [41]
At the same time, nearly 80% of existing mortgage borrowers still have rates below 6%, which gives many owners little incentive to sell unless life forces a move. That “lock‑in effect” is expected to keep turnover depressed even as conditions thaw. [42]
More bullish voices: A potential 2026 “surge”?
Not everyone is cautious.
In a new HousingWire piece, Mat Ishbia, CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, argued that the market is “positioned for growth” in 2026, pointing to:
- Stronger housing supply and inventory,
- Improving affordability, and
- Potential new products like 50‑year and portable mortgages that could lower monthly payments for some borrowers. [43]
Ishbia suggested mortgage originations could grow 10–12% or more in 2026 and encouraged would‑be buyers to consider getting “off the sidelines” as affordability improves. [44]
That view is more optimistic than the cautious “reset” framing from Realtor.com and Bright MLS, but it underscores the same trend: conditions are easing, just not evenly or explosively.
What all of this means if you’re planning to buy or sell
These are broad forecasts, not guarantees — and they’re no substitute for tailored advice from local real‑estate and financial professionals. But they do offer useful guardrails for 2025–2026 planning:
For homebuyers
- Expect more choice and slightly better math, especially in markets with growing inventory or forecast price declines (many in Florida, the broader Sun Belt, and the West). [45]
- Don’t bank on a crash. Most national forecasts still show modest price gains, not steep declines, with only a minority of large markets expected to see outright price drops. [46]
- Monthly payments may finally stop outrunning paychecks. With wages expected to grow faster than home prices and rents, many households should see affordability improve incrementally. [47]
- Your personal rate still matters more than the national average. Credit score, debt‑to‑income ratio, down payment size and comparison shopping across lenders can move your rate more than the difference between, say, 6.1% and 6.3%. [48]
For sellers
- Pricing power is softening in many boom markets. If you’re in one of the 22 metros forecast to see price declines, you may need to price more competitively, offer concessions or invest in presentation to stand out. [49]
- But strong demand hasn’t vanished everywhere. In inventory‑tight markets — especially parts of the Midwest, Northeast and select tech hubs — sellers may still see steady interest, even if bidding wars are less intense than in 2021. [50]
- Timing is less about perfectly calling the bottom or top, and more about your life plans. The lock‑in effect means many people will only move for job, family or lifestyle reasons — and that’s okay. Forecasts suggest 2026 will be more “normal,” not a once‑in‑a‑generation buying or selling window. [51]
The big picture: A fragile recovery, not a free‑for‑all
Put together, today’s December 3, 2025 coverage points to a fragile but genuine recovery in 2026:
- Rates likely easing into the low‑6% range, not crashing.
- Prices rising gently at the national level, but falling in a meaningful set of formerly red‑hot metros.
- Sales and inventory finally inching higher, giving buyers more leverage in negotiations — though not everywhere.
- Regional divides widening, with parts of the Midwest and Rust Belt emerging as relative winners while some Sun Belt markets digest their pandemic boom.
If you’re planning a move, the most important step is zooming from the national headlines down to your specific metro, neighborhood and price point. These forecasts are a starting line, not the finish.
References
1. www.cbsnews.com, 2. www.realtor.com, 3. www.realtor.com, 4. www.realtor.com, 5. www.realtor.com, 6. www.cbsnews.com, 7. www.newsweek.com, 8. www.realtor.com, 9. www.realtor.com, 10. www.realtor.com, 11. www.redfin.com, 12. www.realtor.com, 13. www.realtor.com, 14. www.realtor.com, 15. www.realtor.com, 16. www.realtor.com, 17. www.realtor.com, 18. www.cbsnews.com, 19. www.cbsnews.com, 20. www.cbsnews.com, 21. www.cbsnews.com, 22. www.cbsnews.com, 23. www.cbsnews.com, 24. www.cbsnews.com, 25. www.newsweek.com, 26. www.newsweek.com, 27. www.newsweek.com, 28. www.wtol.com, 29. www.housingwire.com, 30. www.realtor.com, 31. www.redfin.com, 32. www.housingwire.com, 33. janyacollective.in, 34. janyacollective.in, 35. janyacollective.in, 36. www.housingwire.com, 37. www.housingwire.com, 38. www.housingwire.com, 39. www.housingwire.com, 40. www.housingwire.com, 41. www.worldpropertyjournal.com, 42. www.realtor.com, 43. www.housingwire.com, 44. www.housingwire.com, 45. www.cbsnews.com, 46. www.realtor.com, 47. www.realtor.com, 48. janyacollective.in, 49. komonews.com, 50. www.newsweek.com, 51. www.realtor.com
