NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 15:17 ET
- Haynes Boone’s lender survey cut the base-case 2026 U.S. gas price deck to $3.43/mmBtu, down from $3.54 in spring.
- EIA projects Henry Hub averaging $4.01/mmBtu in 2026; a Dallas Fed survey of executives put year-end 2026 at $4.19/mmBtu.
- LNG export growth and large-load power demand are emerging as key swing factors for 2026 pricing.
Banks that lend to the U.S. oil and gas industry trimmed their 2026 natural gas price deck to $3.43 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), a standard unit of heat energy, down from $3.54 in the spring, a Haynes Boone survey of 29 lenders showed. The survey also lowered the 2026 oil assumption to $55.44 a barrel and put a downside gas case at $2.79/mmBtu. MRT
Those assumptions feed directly into borrowing bases and spending plans at producers as they lock in hedges and set drilling budgets for 2026. Even small shifts in the price deck can change how much cash operators expect to generate.
They also matter for consumers because Henry Hub — a Louisiana pricing hub — is the benchmark for most U.S. wholesale gas contracts and a key input for many power markets. The central question in the 2026 natural gas price forecast is whether supply growth can keep up with rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, gas cooled into a liquid for shipping, and electricity demand.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected Henry Hub spot gas would average $4.01/mmBtu in 2026, up from a projected $3.56/mmBtu in 2025, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. It forecast dry gas production averaging 109.11 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2026 and LNG exports rising to 16.3 bcfd. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Energy executives in the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ latest Energy Survey pegged Henry Hub at $4.19/mmBtu by the end of 2026 and put West Texas Intermediate crude around $62 a barrel for the same period. Henry Hub averaged $4.84/mmBtu during the survey collection period, the Dallas Fed said. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 5% on Dec. 31, with February futures around $3.745/mmBtu midday, after weather forecasts turned warmer and federal data showed a 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 26, below market expectations. LSEG estimated lower-48 output averaged 110.1 bcfd in December and LNG feedgas about 18.5 bcfd, both records. “We’re about to hit the next wave of the LNG boom,” said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis. BOE Report
Heating degree days, or HDDs, measure how much heating demand households and businesses face; milder weather usually means fewer HDDs and weaker gas burn. Storage withdrawals matter because they show whether inventories are tightening fast enough to support prices later in winter.
Analysts have increasingly argued that 2026 price moves will be driven less by daily weather swings and more by LNG demand, as new export projects compete for supply, Argus said. The U.S. has about 17.5 bcfd of liquefaction capacity operating and 15 bcfd under construction, and meeting new projects could require roughly 9.9–10.8 bcfd of additional feedgas once processing losses are included, it said. Argus Media
Data-center power demand is another lever that traders are building into 2026 expectations, especially in the U.S. East, where pipeline takeaway has historically constrained regional pricing, Argus said. Range Resources expects 2.5 bcfd of incremental U.S. demand from data centers by the end of the decade and cited a 4 bcfd increase in U.S. LNG export capacity coming online in 2026. Argus Media
Put together, the forecasts sketch a market that is firmer than 2025 but still sensitive to timing. If export ramps and new power loads slip, the lender decks may prove closer to the mark; if they arrive on schedule while production growth stays modest, the higher forecasts get tested quickly.
Globally, the LNG build-out carries its own risk: a Reuters commodities columnist wrote that LNG may come under pressure in 2026 as more U.S. plants are commissioned and the market looks for prices low enough to clear the extra supply. Reuters
For now, the 2026 natural gas price forecast is converging on a mid-$3 to low-$4 Henry Hub range, with winter inventories and the pace of LNG commissioning as the main near-term signposts. Regional basis markets — the premium or discount to Henry Hub — are likely to stay volatile as infrastructure and demand growth play out unevenly.
