Dec. 23, 2025 — The Home Depot, Inc. (The) stock (NYSE: HD) traded near $344 on Tuesday, edging lower on the day as investors weighed a fresh round of analyst target updates against the retailer’s newly outlined 2026 framework and an interest-rate-sensitive housing backdrop.
HD’s latest move is small, but the conversation around the stock is not: Wall Street is increasingly framing Home Depot as a “when housing turns” story—one where timing, not business quality, is the main variable.
Home Depot stock price today: where HD stands on Dec. 23, 2025
As of the latest available trading data on Dec. 23, 2025, Home Depot shares were around $344.46, down about 0.56% on the session, with trading between roughly $341.95 and $346.95.
Recent tape action shows why the market feels conflicted. After closing at $354.99 on Dec. 18, the stock slid to $345.00 on Dec. 19 and ended Dec. 23 at about $344.44 (per daily historical data). [1]
That short-term softness sits alongside a bigger debate: whether Home Depot’s base-case outlook is intentionally conservative—or simply realistic given consumer uncertainty and still-muted turnover in housing.
What’s making news for HD on Dec. 23: price target tweaks, ownership moves, and a watchful market
1) Wolfe Research nudges its target higher—signal over size
One of the day’s notable stock-specific headlines: Wolfe Research increased its price target to $415 from $414 and maintained an “Outperform” rating, implying roughly ~21% upside from prevailing prices at the time of the report. [2]
The one-dollar change isn’t the point. What matters is that despite the stock’s choppiness and cautious near-term demand commentary, some analysts are still underwriting a meaningful re-rating if (or when) housing activity and bigger-ticket projects normalize.
2) Institutional ownership remains heavy; a specific fund disclosed a bigger stake
A separate filing-driven update making the rounds Tuesday: Brighton Jones LLC increased its Home Depot position by 22.9% in Q3 to 34,686 shares, and the same report pegged institutional ownership at roughly ~70.86%. [3]
This type of headline doesn’t change Home Depot’s fundamentals—but it reinforces that HD remains a core institutional holding, and big sentiment shifts tend to show up in research notes and macro expectations rather than retail chatter.
3) A small political purchase disclosure hit the tape
Another Dec. 23 item circulating: Rep. David Taylor disclosed a purchase of Home Depot shares (a relatively small dollar range) tied to a transaction dated earlier in December, per the disclosure-focused report. [4]
These notices can grab attention, but investors generally treat them as noise unless they’re unusually large, repeated, or paired with meaningful corporate developments.
The real driver: Home Depot’s 2026 framework and the “market recovery case”
The most consequential recent catalyst for HD stock remains the company’s Dec. 9, 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference, where management laid out both a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook and a more optimistic market recovery case. [5]
Home Depot’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook (base case)
Home Depot said it expects the home improvement market to be in a range of -1% to +1%, with:
- Comparable sales: approximately flat to +2%
- Total sales growth: approximately +2.5% to +4.5%
- Adjusted EPS growth: approximately flat to +4% [6]
Home Depot’s “market recovery case” (what upside could look like)
In a scenario with improving housing activity and increased spending on larger projects, the company outlined:
- Total sales growth: approximately +5% to +6%
- Comparable sales growth: approximately +4% to +5%
- EPS growth:mid-to-high single digits [7]
This two-track framing is central to how HD is being traded: the market is effectively asking whether the U.S. is headed toward the base case—or drifting closer to the recovery case.
Reuters coverage of the investor-day outlook highlighted that Home Depot’s base-case view came in below analysts’ estimates at the time, reflecting continued cooling in DIY and big-ticket categories and a housing market that hasn’t delivered a clear inflection yet. [8]
What the latest quarter said about demand: “stable, but not accelerating”
Home Depot’s most recent earnings report (Q3 fiscal 2025, released Nov. 18, 2025) helps explain why investors are parsing guidance so closely.
The company reported:
- Sales of $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales up 0.2% (U.S. comps up 0.1%)
- Adjusted EPS of $3.74 (vs. $3.78 a year ago) [9]
Management attributed the quarter’s shortfall versus expectations primarily to less storm activity (pressure in certain categories) and said an anticipated demand pickup didn’t materialize amid consumer uncertainty and continued housing pressure. [10]
On the same investor-day update, Home Depot reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 expectations (a 52-week year vs. fiscal 2024’s 53-week year), including:
- Total sales growth ~3% (with GMS contributing ~ $2B incremental sales)
- Comparable sales slightly positive on a comparable 52-week basis
- Adjusted EPS down ~5% from fiscal 2024 [11]
“Win the Pro”: why acquisitions are central to the HD stock narrative
A major pillar of Home Depot’s medium-term bull case is its push to gain share with professional contractors (“Pros”)—and to expand beyond the core big-box model through specialty distribution.
Key pieces include:
- GMS acquisition completed (Sept. 4, 2025) through SRS Distribution for an enterprise value (including net debt) of about $5.5 billion, per Home Depot. [12]
- Home Depot has framed these moves as part of a broader strategy to deepen its Pro ecosystem, including leveraging both organic investment and acquisitions to expand capabilities. [13]
Investors watching the Pro strategy typically focus on two questions:
- Can distribution-related growth offset softer DIY demand?
- Will the “Pro mix” help margins and cash flow as the cycle turns?
Digital and AI: Home Depot’s push upstream into project planning
Beyond housing and Pro mix, HD is also trying to influence when purchase decisions happen—moving closer to the planning stage, not just the checkout.
Two late-2025 initiatives stand out:
AI-powered Blueprint Takeoffs tool (Nov. 19, 2025)
Home Depot launched an AI-powered Blueprint Takeoffs solution designed to help professional renovators and builders generate material lists and quotes faster—compressing a process that previously could take weeks into days, according to the company. [14]
Creator Portal (Dec. 10, 2025)
Home Depot also announced a new Creator Portal aimed at connecting digital creators with the brand to help monetize home improvement content and drive engagement. [15]
These moves aren’t likely to swing next quarter’s comps by themselves, but they support an important strategic theme: capturing demand earlier and building stickier relationships with both DIY customers and Pros.
Analyst forecasts for HD stock: price targets cluster above the market, but estimates are mixed
The Dec. 23 conversation around Home Depot stock is heavily shaped by target prices and how fast analysts think earnings can re-accelerate.
Here’s what major tracking sources show:
- StockAnalysis: consensus rating “Buy” with an average target around $421 (range roughly $350 to $497, depending on analyst set). [16]
- TipRanks: consensus “Moderate Buy” and an average target around $401.85, implying mid-teens upside from prices around late December. [17]
- MarketBeat (Dec. 23): notes a mix tilted positive (buys outweigh holds and sells) and highlights Wolfe’s $415 target. [18]
One example of how “timing” shows up in research notes
Truist Securities recently raised its price target to $390 from $375 and kept a Buy rating, while acknowledging that trends look “stable” but not accelerating as once expected—and pointing to macro catalysts (rate cuts, home equity, and even early-2026 seasonality) as potential drivers of a stronger upcycle. [19]
Earnings expectations: modest growth, not a boom (yet)
A Zacks/Nasdaq comparison piece cited consensus expectations for Home Depot that imply sales growth but a more nuanced EPS path, including recent downward revisions to EPS estimates over the past month in that dataset. [20]
The takeaway: analysts broadly see upside—but not everyone agrees on how soon Home Depot’s earnings power reasserts itself.
Risks investors are watching right now
Even for long-term bulls, several near-term risks remain front and center:
Housing and big-ticket projects remain the swing factor
Home Depot itself and external coverage continue to emphasize that the pace of housing activity—and consumer confidence in big projects—has not delivered a clean inflection. Reuters reported management commentary pointing to ongoing uncertainty and a lack of a clear catalyst in housing. [21]
Cybersecurity and operational resilience are in the spotlight
A TechCrunch report said Home Depot had a security lapse involving an exposed access token that could allow access to internal systems; the exposure was later fixed after TechCrunch contacted the company, according to the report. [22]
Litigation headlines periodically resurface
A law firm announcement in mid-December said it was investigating potential claims on behalf of investors. These notices don’t automatically imply wrongdoing, but they can add headline risk. [23]
What to watch next for Home Depot stock heading into 2026
For investors tracking HD into the new year, the next catalysts tend to cluster around:
- Next earnings update and any changes to near-term demand commentary (especially big-ticket categories and Pro trends). [24]
- Housing activity signals (turnover, mortgage-rate trajectory, and consumer confidence), which influence the likelihood of the “market recovery case” becoming more plausible. [25]
- Execution on Pro expansion, including integration and performance contributions from specialty distribution assets. [26]
- Adoption of new Pro digital tools, such as Blueprint Takeoffs, which aims to pull Home Depot deeper into the project planning workflow. [27]
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025
Home Depot stock is ending Dec. 23 near $344, a modest down day that masks a bigger crosscurrent: HD is trading as a high-quality operator in a market that’s waiting for a housing and renovation cycle to regain traction. [28]
The bull case is straightforward: if housing activity improves and larger projects return, Home Depot’s own recovery framework—and many analyst targets—suggest meaningful upside. [29]
The bear case is equally clear: if the “higher-for-longer” environment keeps turnover and big remodels muted, HD’s base case may prove sticky, and multiple expansion may be harder to justify. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. ir.homedepot.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. ir.homedepot.com, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. techcrunch.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com, 27. ir.homedepot.com, 28. ir.homedepot.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.reuters.com
