AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) heads into the Monday, December 15, 2025 US market open with a familiar “big pharma” setup—steady cash returns, blockbuster execution, and a pipeline that’s increasingly being treated as a source of upside rather than a safety net. Shares last traded around $223.32, slipping modestly at Friday’s close as broader markets softened, but ABBV remains one of the stronger large-cap pharma performers in 2025. [1]
ABBV before the bell: the quick read
- Last close: $223.32 (down about 0.3% Friday). [2]
- Scale: AbbVie is a mega-cap, with market cap around $395B. [3]
- Where it sits vs. highs: ABBV has been trading below its 52-week high of $244.81 (Oct. 1, 2025). [4]
- Why the stock is in focus right now: A fresh burst of bullish research activity—HSBC upgraded ABBV to Buy with a $265 target, and Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $269—is reinforcing the view that AbbVie’s post-Humira transition is working. [5]
- The fundamental engine: AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to grow quickly enough to offset Humira erosion; management raised 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.61–$10.65 after Q3 results. [6]
- Income angle: AbbVie announced a 5.5% dividend increase to $1.73 per share quarterly (payable Feb. 17, 2026; record date Jan. 16, 2026), putting the forward annual payout at $6.92 and dividend yield around 3.1% at current prices. [7]
What’s driving the narrative into December 15
1) Analysts are turning more constructive—and targets moved up fast
Two notable Wall Street signals landed just ahead of this week’s open:
- HSBC upgrade: HSBC upgraded AbbVie from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to $265 from $225. The bank framed AbbVie as a “preferred” sector pick, highlighting earnings momentum, valuation around a mid-teens forward multiple, and a ~3% dividend yield; it also downplayed competitive risk to Skyrizi and pointed to pipeline readouts as underappreciated. [8]
- Morgan Stanley target bump: Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $269 from $261 and reiterated Overweight, arguing that policy “overhangs” weighing on biopharma could fade into 2026, shifting attention back to fundamentals. [9]
What matters for Monday isn’t just the upgrades—it’s what they imply. From Friday’s ~$223 close, a $265–$269 target range suggests roughly 19%–20% upside if the bullish case plays out, while broader consensus targets tend to imply a smaller, high-single-digit move. [10]
2) “Humira cliff” is old news—Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now the headline
AbbVie’s investment story has shifted from “can it replace Humira?” to “how big can the replacement era get?”
In Q3 2025, AbbVie reported $15.78B in revenue (up about 9% year over year) and adjusted EPS of $1.86, and raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to $10.61–$10.65. [11]
Under the hood, the transition was stark:
- Skyrizi:$4.708B in Q3 revenue (up ~47% year over year) [12]
- Rinvoq:$2.184B (up ~35%) [13]
- Humira:$993M (down ~55%), dropping below $1B in a quarter amid biosimilar pressure [14]
Those numbers are why analysts increasingly talk about AbbVie as a growth-and-income hybrid rather than a post-LOE “repair story.” Reuters also noted AbbVie expects Skyrizi + Rinvoq combined sales to exceed $31B in 2027—a key anchor assumption behind many multi-year valuation cases. [15]
3) Aesthetics is the swing factor investors shouldn’t ignore
AbbVie’s Allergan Aesthetics portfolio can be a sentiment lever. When it’s growing, it provides diversification. When it softens, it can cap near-term upside even if pharma fundamentals are strong.
Reuters flagged that aesthetics sales declined year over year in Q3, weighing on the stock reaction despite the earnings beat and guidance raise, with commentary pointing to macro pressures. [16]
That matters heading into Monday because ABBV often trades like a “quality compounder” when both immunology and aesthetics are firing—but more like “defensive pharma” when investors are unsure about discretionary demand trends.
The catalysts: what “could” move ABBV next
1) Rinvoq patent runway got longer—and label expansion is still a lever
One of the most stock-relevant developments in 2025 was the market’s reassessment of Rinvoq durability.
Reuters reported that AbbVie said it expects no generic competition for Rinvoq until April 2037, after settlements with generic challengers—an extension that analysts viewed as a meaningful positive for long-term cash flows and pipeline timing. [17]
On the clinical side, Reuters also reported AbbVie data showing Rinvoq outperformed Humira in a head-to-head rheumatoid arthritis study, with stronger response rates on the primary endpoint and secondary measures. [18]
And AbbVie continues to push for broader usage: the company highlighted regulatory work in inflammatory bowel disease (UC/Crohn’s) and touted late-stage progress in new immune indications, including alopecia areata. [19]
Why it matters for Monday: ABBV’s multiple is increasingly tied to confidence that Rinvoq and Skyrizi can compound for years without an early competitive “air pocket.”
2) Recent R&D headlines: vitiligo, migraine, and oncology updates
In the past several weeks, AbbVie has stacked multiple pipeline-related headlines that help keep the growth narrative active:
- Vitiligo: AbbVie announced positive topline results from Phase 3 trials evaluating Rinvoq (upadacitinib) in adults and adolescents with vitiligo, with both 15 mg and 30 mg meeting the primary endpoint in one study and secondary endpoints across studies. [20]
- Migraine: AbbVie said it will present additional Phase 3 data for atogepant (Qulipta/Aquipta) at the European Headache Congress and noted an EU submission for an acute migraine indication, aiming to expand atogepant beyond prevention. [21]
- Follicular lymphoma (oncology): The FDA approved EPKINLY (epcoritamab) in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for certain relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma patients, which AbbVie described as the first bispecific antibody combination therapy in this setting. [22]
- ASH 2025: AbbVie highlighted new data presentations across multiple blood cancers at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) 2025 meeting, including epcoritamab programs and other investigational modalities. [23]
Why it matters for Monday: Even when there’s no single blockbuster approval, a consistent cadence of credible data and label opportunities helps support “multiple expansion” arguments—especially when the market is already rewarding quality earnings streams.
3) Two important filings: Parkinson’s and an antibody-drug conjugate
AbbVie also posted two significant US FDA application milestones in late September:
- Parkinson’s disease: AbbVie announced it submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for tavapadon (a once-daily oral D1/D5 partial agonist) for Parkinson’s disease, based on Phase 3 TEMPO program results. [24]
- Rare blood cancer (ADC): AbbVie announced it submitted a Biologics License Application (BLA) for pivekimab sunirine (PVEK), a CD123-targeting antibody-drug conjugate, for BPDCN (a rare hematologic malignancy). [25]
Why it matters for Monday: These kinds of filings won’t always move the stock immediately, but they shape the medium-term catalyst map—and they also show AbbVie is trying to build a second wave beyond immunology, particularly in neuroscience and oncology.
ABBV valuation and dividend: why income investors keep circling back
AbbVie’s investor base includes a large dividend cohort, and the company is actively leaning into that reputation.
- AbbVie announced a 5.5% dividend increase to $1.73 quarterly (annualized $6.92), payable Feb. 17, 2026 to shareholders of record Jan. 16, 2026. [26]
- Dividend trackers place ABBV’s current dividend yield around 3.1% and list the next ex-dividend date as Jan. 16, 2026. [27]
- On valuation, the headline trailing P/E can look distorted (often very high) because GAAP earnings have been impacted by sizable charges; several market data sources instead emphasize a forward multiple that’s roughly in the mid-teens. [28]
For Monday’s pre-open framing, this is the key takeaway: ABBV is being treated less like a “bond proxy” and more like a dividend grower with credible product-cycle growth, which is why upgrades and pipeline flow matter so much right now. [29]
The risks investors are weighing heading into Monday
Even with bullish research momentum, ABBV is not a “clean” story. Before the bell, these are the main pressure points to keep in mind:
Policy and pricing uncertainty remains a sector overhang
Large-cap pharma remains exposed to Washington policy headlines—whether around drug pricing, reimbursement, or broader healthcare reforms. Analysts like Morgan Stanley are explicitly arguing that some of the policy noise may fade into 2026, but that’s a forecast, not a guarantee. [30]
Humira erosion isn’t done—AbbVie just has a better offset now
Humira revenue fell sharply again in Q3, reflecting the continuing impact of biosimilar competition. AbbVie’s bull case assumes Skyrizi and Rinvoq keep outgrowing the drag, but any deceleration in those two brands tends to get punished because they now carry the narrative. [31]
Aesthetics sensitivity to the macro backdrop
As noted above, weaker aesthetics performance was a visible negative in the Q3 market reaction. If discretionary trends weaken or pricing becomes more promotional, it can weigh on sentiment—even if pharma fundamentals remain strong. [32]
Ongoing legal and distribution disputes in the background
AbbVie has been involved in legal disputes tied to the 340B drug discount program and contract pharmacy issues, including developments noted by hospital-sector and legal outlets. These are often slow-moving, but they’re part of the broader “policy and access” backdrop investors watch in pharma. [33]
What to watch specifically on December 15
Heading into Monday’s open, ABBV watchers will typically focus on:
- Whether the recent upgrades (HSBC, Morgan Stanley) drive follow-through buying or whether the stock continues to consolidate after a strong 2025 run. [34]
- Any incremental read-through from late-year medical meeting coverage (ASH and related oncology updates) and how the market frames AbbVie’s oncology depth beyond its largest franchises. [35]
- Positioning ahead of the next earnings window (many market calendars place AbbVie’s next report in late January or early February 2026, though exact dates can vary by source until confirmed). [36]
- Macro tape + defensive rotation: ABBV can benefit when investors rotate toward profitable, cash-return names—especially when volatility picks up—yet it still reacts to sector-specific policy headlines. [37]
Bottom line for ABBV stock before the open
Ahead of the December 15, 2025 open, the simplest way to frame AbbVie stock is this: the market is rewarding execution, and AbbVie is delivering it—particularly through Skyrizi and Rinvoq—while the company keeps layering in new optionality via filings, label expansions, and oncology/neuroscience pipeline progress. [38]
The near-term question for Monday isn’t whether AbbVie is “cheap” or “expensive” in isolation. It’s whether the stock can keep its premium “quality pharma” positioning—supported by analyst upgrades and a raised guidance profile—while managing the two key sentiment risks: aesthetics softness and policy/pricing overhangs. [39]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. news.abbvie.com, 7. news.abbvie.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. news.abbvie.com, 12. news.abbvie.com, 13. news.abbvie.com, 14. news.abbvie.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. news.abbvie.com, 20. news.abbvie.com, 21. news.abbvie.com, 22. news.abbvie.com, 23. news.abbvie.com, 24. news.abbvie.com, 25. news.abbvie.com, 26. news.abbvie.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.financecharts.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. news.abbvie.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.aha.org, 34. www.investing.com, 35. news.abbvie.com, 36. www.nasdaq.com, 37. www.marketwatch.com, 38. news.abbvie.com, 39. www.investing.com
