AbbVie Stock (ABBV): HSBC Upgrade, Dividend Hike and New FDA Win Reshape the 2025 Outlook

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) has quietly turned into one of 2025’s standout large‑cap pharma stories. Shares are up roughly a mid‑20% percentage year‑to‑date, outpacing the broader market, powered by booming sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, a fresh dividend hike, and a string of oncology milestones — capped by an HSBC upgrade that just put AbbVie on the firm’s “preferred buys” list for 2026. ^[1]

At the same time, the stock is still trading below its early‑October high, and investors are weighing Humira’s ongoing decline, softness in aesthetics, and regulatory risk against that growth story. Here’s a detailed look at how AbbVie stock has evolved since late November 2025, and what current news and forecasts suggest about its 12‑month outlook.

AbbVie stock today: price, performance and valuation

In the latest trading session, AbbVie shares changed hands around $225 (Intraday quote: $224.81), leaving the stock roughly 8–9% below its 52‑week high of $244.81 set on 1 October 2025. ^[2]

Over the past year:

AbbVie is up about 22–26% year‑to‑date, depending on the snapshot you use. A Barchart analysis in early November put the gain at 22.7% YTD, while later pieces from 24/7 Wall St. and Sahm Capital cited ~25–25.5% YTD performance — all comfortably ahead of the S&P 500. ^[3]
The stock has pulled back modestly from its early‑October peak, recently trading 7–8% under its 52‑week high. ^[4]

On valuation, the picture depends on the metric:

Barchart pegs AbbVie at a forward P/E of about 21–22x, a premium to the healthcare sector’s ~18.8x average, reflecting a “quality growth” multiple. ^[5]
A separate 24/7 Wall St. piece, using a different earnings base, highlights a forward P/E closer to 16x and EV/EBITDA around 15.4x, arguing that AbbVie still trades at a discount to its own growth prospects. ^[6]

Either way, AbbVie currently combines a low‑beta profile (around 0.6), a market cap near $400 billion, and a mid‑3% dividend yield — a mix that has attracted both income investors and defensive growth buyers. ^[7]

Why 21 November 2025 was a turning point for ABBV

The user‑specified date, 21 November 2025, sits right at an inflection point for AbbVie’s share price.

According to MarketWatch’s daily market recap:

On 20 November, AbbVie closed at $229.45, its third straight down day and about 6.3% below its 52‑week high. ^[8]
On 21 November, the stock rebounded 2.98% to $236.28, snapping that losing streak and cutting the gap to its 52‑week high to just 3.5%. Trading volume jumped to 7.9 million shares, well above the 6.0 million 50‑day average — a sign that big money stepped back in. ^[9]

A separate intraday recap that day noted that several big healthcare names, including AbbVie, surged after a key Federal Reserve official bolstered hopes for interest‑rate cuts, which tend to support high‑yield, defensive stocks. AbbVie’s move was estimated at roughly 3–3.5% intraday, broadly consistent with the MarketWatch close. ^[10]

In other words, 21 November marked:

A technical recovery after a short pullback following Q3 earnings.
The start of a renewed rotation into defensive pharma, setting the stage for the early‑December rally driven by oncology news and the HSBC upgrade.

Q3 2025 earnings: growth engines vs. legacy drag

AbbVie’s fundamental story since late November is still anchored in its Q3 2025 results, reported on 31 October.

Headline numbers

Net revenues: $15.78 billion, up 9.1% year‑over‑year and ahead of the ~$15.6 billion consensus. ^[11]
Adjusted EPS: $1.86, topping the $1.77 consensus and exceeding AbbVie’s own guidance range of $1.74–$1.78, though still down 38% YoY due largely to higher upfront R&D and milestone charges. ^[12]
New 2025 EPS outlook: management raised full‑year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.61–$10.65, up from $10.38–$10.58, reflecting confidence in the trajectory for Skyrizi, Rinvoq and the broader pipeline. ^[13]

Segment performance

The quarter underscored the transition from Humira dependence to a more diversified portfolio:

Immunology (Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Humira):
- Segment revenue: $7.89 billion, up ~12% operationally. ^[14]
- Skyrizi: $4.71 billion, up about 46% year‑over‑year, driven by volume and rising market share across psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and Crohn’s disease. ^[15]
- Rinvoq: $2.18 billion, up roughly 34%, helped by label expansions such as giant cell arteritis. ^[16]
- Humira: revenue fell to $993 million, down ~56% overall, including a 65% U.S. decline as biosimilar competition intensifies following loss of exclusivity. ^[17]
Neuroscience:
Revenue climbed nearly 20% to $2.84 billion, led by Vraylar (depression), Ubrelvy and Qulipta (migraine), and Vyalev for advanced Parkinson’s disease. ^[18]
Oncology:
Segment revenue slipped about 1–2% to $1.68 billion, as continued declines in Imbruvica offset growth from Venclexta, Epkinly and Elahere. ^[19]
Aesthetics (Botox Cosmetic, Juvederm, etc.):
Sales fell ~4% to $1.19 billion, weighed down by softer demand for injectables and macro sensitivity in elective procedures — a pain point that partly explains the stock’s post‑earnings wobble. ^[20]

Zacks summed up the quarter as a “beat and raise” driven by immunology and neuroscience, with aesthetics and legacy oncology as the main soft spots, and maintained AbbVie at a neutral “Hold” rating while emphasizing the strong pipeline. ^[21]

A bigger dividend and a powerful income story

Income investors have had plenty to cheer about since November.

AbbVie announced a 5.5% dividend increase, lifting the quarterly payout from $1.64 to $1.73 per share, with the first higher payment scheduled for 17 February 2026. ^[22]
Based on recent prices in the low‑ to mid‑$220s, that translates to a forward dividend yield around 3.0–3.2%, more than double the healthcare sector average of roughly 1.6%. ^[23]
Barchart estimates AbbVie’s dividend payout ratio at about 60% of earnings, leaving room for continued increases while funding heavy R&D and acquisitions. ^[24]
24/7 Wall St. notes that AbbVie (together with its Abbott Labs legacy) has raised its dividend for over five decades, while AbbVie itself has posted 13 consecutive annual hikes since the spin‑off, with a roughly 13% 10‑year dividend growth rate. ^[25]

For investors looking at ABBV strictly as a dividend growth stock, those metrics place it firmly in “dividend aristocrat/monarch” territory: attractive current yield, long track record, and double‑digit historical growth, backed by a robust cash‑flow engine.

Oncology momentum: new FDA approval and ASH 2025 data

AbbVie’s hematology and oncology pipeline has generated some of the most important headlines since 21 November.

EPKINLY combo approval in follicular lymphoma

On 18 November 2025, AbbVie announced that the U.S. FDA approved EPKINLY (epcoritamab‑bysp) in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide (often called “EPKINLY + R²”) for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma after at least one line of systemic therapy. ^[26]

Key points from the pivotal EPCORE FL‑1 Phase 3 trial:

EPKINLY + R² reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 79% versus standard R² alone (hazard ratio 0.21). ^[27]
Overall response rate (ORR) was 89% with the combo vs. 74% with R².
Complete response (CR) rate was 74% vs. 43% on R² alone. ^[28]

This approval marks the third indication for EPKINLY and the first bispecific antibody combination therapy approved in lymphoma, expanding AbbVie’s presence in high‑value blood cancer markets and reinforcing its collaboration with Genmab. ^[29]

ASH 2025: PVEK data and blood‑cancer depth

At the ASH 2025 hematology congress, AbbVie showcased a range of new data, including: ^[30]

A Phase 1b/2 study of pivekimab sunirine (PVEK) plus venetoclax and azacitidine in newly diagnosed, CD123‑positive acute myeloid leukemia patients unfit for intensive chemo, which achieved a 63.3% complete remission rate in 49 participants — notable for a challenging population. ^[31]
Further details from EPCORE FL‑1, reinforcing the 79% risk reduction in FL with EPKINLY + R². ^[32]

An AI‑assisted but editorially reviewed report from AInvest highlighted that AbbVie’s stock rose 2.62% on 3 December 2025, with $1.12 billion in trading volume, attributing the move largely to ASH data and regulatory milestones like the EPKINLY approval and the Biologics License Application filing for PVEK in BPDCN, a rare blood cancer. ^[33]

Tying it together, AbbVie’s own news center has also flagged:

November and December press releases on ASH data and
upcoming ECLIPSE Phase 3 migraine results for atogepant (AQUIPTA) — another potential contributor to long‑term neuroscience growth. ^[34]

HSBC upgrade: AbbVie as a top pharma pick for 2026

On 10 December 2025, HSBC upgraded AbbVie from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $225 to $265, positioning ABBV as one of its preferred large‑cap pharma names for 2026. ^[35]

In its sector note, HSBC argued that:

AbbVie’s growth momentum and execution remain solid, even as the broader pharma sector sees mixed sentiment.
Competition from Tremfya (J&J’s rival to Skyrizi) is “unlikely to be a meaningful risk,” given Skyrizi’s entrenched position and strong data. ^[36]
Market is undervaluing key pipeline readouts, particularly from AbbVie’s antibody‑drug conjugate (ADC) programme (e.g., emcraladine) and the gene therapy ABBV‑RGX‑314 for retinal disease. ^[37]

HSBC’s new $265 target implies high‑teens percentage upside from prices in the mid‑$220s and adds to a long list of bullish analyst moves since Q3, including Piper Sandler, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Berenberg, many of which have raised targets into the $250–$289 range in recent months. ^[38]

Street consensus: what analysts and models are pricing in

Looking across major data providers, the analyst consensus on AbbVie is clearly positive, though not euphoric.

Investing.com:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”.
- Breakdown (past three months): 21 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Average 12‑month target:$244.93, implying about 9% upside from ~ $225. ^[39]
MarketBeat:
- Labels AbbVie a “Moderate Buy”, with roughly three Strong Buys, 14 Buys and 8 Holds.
- Lists an average target price around $244. ^[40]
Benzinga / other aggregators:
- Recent upgrades and target hikes from UBS, Piper Sandler, Citi, JPMorgan, Guggenheim, Wells Fargo and others cluster mostly in the $235–$289 range. ^[41]
TipRanks (via recent snapshots):
- Around mid‑ to high‑20s analysts cover AbbVie.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”, with an average target in the mid‑$240s to high‑$240s, implying about 10–12% upside from the low‑$220s. ^[42]

One interesting outlier: a discounted cash‑flow (DCF) analysis by Sahm Capital pegs AbbVie’s intrinsic value at $427.65 per share, suggesting the stock is roughly 47% undervalued at current levels — a far more aggressive view than the typical 8–15% upside embedded in most 12‑month sell‑side targets. ^[43]

Earnings and revenue forecasts for 2025–2026

Consensus forecasts collected by StockAnalysis and others offer a numeric sense of what the market expects from AbbVie over the next two years:

Revenue:
- 2024 (est.): ~$56.3 billion
- 2025 (est.): $62.2 billion, implying about 10.4% growth.
- 2026 (est.): $68.0 billion, another ~9.4% increase. ^[44]
EPS (largely non‑GAAP / adjusted):
- 2024 (distorted by one‑time R&D charges): ~2.39.
- 2025 (est.): 10.86, in line with AbbVie’s own guidance range of $10.61–$10.65. ^[45]
- 2026 (est.): 14.53, suggesting robust high‑30% EPS growth as temporary acquisition‑related charges roll off and high‑margin drugs scale. ^[46]

The takeaway: Street models assume that Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Venclexta, Vraylar, migraine therapies and oncology launches more than offset the Humira/Imbruvica drag, restoring AbbVie to a double‑digit top‑line growth path with accelerating EPS.

The bull case for AbbVie stock

Putting the recent news together, bulls generally make the following arguments:

Skyrizi & Rinvoq are already “the new Humira” — and then some.
Combined, these two immunology drugs are growing north of 30% and already account for over $6.8 billion per quarter, with room to keep expanding into new indications and geographies. ^[47]
Oncology pipeline is inflecting.
The EPKINLY + R² follicular lymphoma approval and strong ASH 2025 data on PVEK and other assets support a long runway in blood cancers, an area where AbbVie is working to reposition itself as a leader after years of relying heavily on Imbruvica. ^[48]
Management is still raising guidance.
Few mega‑cap pharmas are lifting full‑year EPS estimates after digesting one of the largest patent cliffs in history. AbbVie has now raised 2025 guidance while continuing to pour nearly $9 billion annually into R&D. ^[49]
Dividend plus growth is a rare combo.
A 3%+ yield, 50+‑year combined dividend growth record, and a forward payout ratio around 60% give AbbVie a strong claim as one of the top large‑cap dividend growth stories in healthcare. ^[50]
Valuation is reasonable vs. quality and growth.
With most targets clustered in the mid‑$240s and some DCF work suggesting far higher intrinsic value, bulls argue that AbbVie offers defensive growth at a fair price, particularly if rates drift lower and income stocks re‑rate. ^[51]

The bear (or at least cautious) case

Skeptics aren’t short on talking points either:

Humira and Imbruvica erosion continues.
Humira’s sales dropped more than 55% in Q3 and will keep shrinking as biosimilars spread worldwide. Imbruvica faces intense competition from newer oral therapies, pushing oncology segment revenue slightly negative in the quarter. ^[52]
Aesthetics weakness may not be temporary.
Botox Cosmetic and Juvederm both saw mid‑single‑digit revenue declines in Q3, and recovery has been slower than some had hoped. Prolonged softness here would weigh on margins and growth. ^[53]
Regulatory risk is real and recurring.
One recent example: TrackInsight reported that AbbVie shares fell about 7% in a single session after the FDA decided to require a heart‑risk warning on one of its products — a reminder that safety findings can quickly hit the share price. ^[54]
High leverage and sustained deal‑making.
AbbVie still carries a sizable debt load, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 4x by some measures, and continues to rely on acquisitions (Gilgamesh, Capstan, etc.) to bolster its pipeline. Integration and balance‑sheet risk are ongoing concerns. ^[55]
Valuation isn’t dirt‑cheap after a big run.
A forward P/E in the low‑20s (on some estimates) is not a bargain if growth or the macro backdrop disappoint — particularly if aesthetics remain weak or if any major pipeline readout falls short. ^[56]

What it all means for investors now

From 21 November 2025 through early December, AbbVie stock has ridden three overlapping waves:

Macro tailwind: a rate‑cut narrative that boosted high‑yield defensives. ^[57]
Fundamental momentum: better‑than‑expected Q3 results, a guidance hike, and tangible progress in oncology and neuroscience. ^[58]
Sentiment upgrade: HSBC’s December call putting AbbVie on its “buy for 2026” list with a $265 target. ^[59]

Putting that together:

For income‑focused investors: AbbVie offers a rare combination of 3%‑plus yield, reliable dividend growth and visible earnings power, backed by a diversified portfolio. The main questions are your comfort with pharma regulatory risk and with the company’s leverage.
For growth‑oriented investors: The core case pivots on Skyrizi, Rinvoq and the oncology pipeline. If those assets keep delivering, AbbVie can plausibly sustain high‑single‑digit revenue growth and faster EPS growth into 2026–2027 — which could justify current multiples or even some further re‑rating.
For cautious or value‑driven investors: After a strong rally and with consensus targets showing single‑digit to low‑teens upside, patience or selective buying on pullbacks may be more appealing than chasing every uptick.