December 21, 2025 — AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) heads into the final stretch of 2025 near multi‑month highs, but the weekend news cycle (starting December 20, 2025) has put a familiar theme back in the spotlight: U.S. drug pricing policy. At the same time, Wall Street’s newest notes show a market still split between strong fundamentals (Skyrizi/Rinvoq momentum and a dividend raise) and policy/pipeline debates that could shape sentiment into 2026.
ABBV last traded around $226.82 after Friday’s session, up about 1.8% on the day, and sitting within striking distance of its 52‑week high. [1]
Where AbbVie stock stands as of Dec. 20 weekend
With U.S. markets closed on Saturday, December 20, investors are essentially reacting to the Friday, Dec. 19 close and the policy headlines that followed. ABBV finished around $226.82, with the latest session’s intraday range roughly $225.46–$229.57, on volume close to 19 million shares.
Market summaries at week’s end also pegged AbbVie’s market capitalization at roughly $400 billion and flagged the stock as still below its recent peak. [2]
The big “from 20.12.2025” driver: drug‑pricing policy is back in the headlines
1) TrumpRx agreements: AbbVie still in the “next group” to negotiate
A major policy overhang for large biopharma stocks resurfaced late in the week: President Donald Trump’s administration announced drug‑pricing agreements with nine pharmaceutical companies, while AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, and Regeneron were cited as among firms still to be included. [3]
Reuters’ report described the agreements as including a framework tied to “most‑favored‑nation” (MFN) pricing—linking U.S. launch prices to lower prices in a set of peer countries—plus provisions described as remitting a portion of foreign revenues and commitments to invest heavily in U.S. manufacturing and R&D. [4]
Why this matters for ABBV: even when AbbVie isn’t explicitly named in a given agreement, the market often trades large‑cap pharma as a “policy basket.” If investors expect AbbVie to ultimately sign under similar terms, that can affect valuation assumptions for future launches, U.S. net price trends, and international strategy.
2) Medicare pilot programs: international price referencing moves from talking point to structure
In parallel, Reuters reported that the U.S. health agency announced two Medicare pilot programs—GLOBE and GUARD—designed to test approaches that can lower drug costs, including mechanisms tied to prices abroad and manufacturer rebates. The reported timelines include 2026 and 2027 start windows depending on the model. [5]
Why this matters for ABBV: AbbVie has meaningful exposure to Medicare dynamics across multiple therapeutic areas. Any program that increases the probability of international reference pricing or changes how rebates are structured can shift investor expectations for long‑run pricing power across the sector.
3) IRA negotiation effects are becoming real in 2026 out‑of‑pocket math—AbbVie appears in the data
A separate Reuters policy piece highlighted an AARP analysis of Medicare’s first negotiated drugs: while out‑of‑pocket costs could fall sharply for several products, AbbVie’s leukemia therapy Imbruvica was listed among the three most expensive in that first negotiation set, with out‑of‑pocket costs still projected to remain high for some patients even after negotiated pricing takes effect. [6]
This is not necessarily a surprise—high list prices and coinsurance structures can still produce high patient costs—but the point is that drug pricing news is increasingly showing up in “real world” math, which can keep investors focused on policy into early 2026.
Fundamentals: AbbVie’s growth engine is increasingly Skyrizi + Rinvoq
Policy noise is one side of the ABBV story. The other is execution—and AbbVie’s last reported quarter underscored how much the company has moved into its post‑Humira era.
In its Q3 2025 report (released Oct. 31, 2025), AbbVie posted worldwide net revenues of $15.776B, up 9.1% reported (or 8.4% operational). [7]
The headline inside the numbers: immunology is still the profit engine, but the mix has changed dramatically.
- Immunology portfolio revenue:$7.885B (+11.9% reported / +11.2% operational) [8]
In other words, AbbVie is showing investors exactly what they wanted to see in the Humira‑LOE transition: Skyrizi and Rinvoq scaling fast enough to offset Humira’s decline.
AbbVie also reported:
- Neuroscience portfolio revenue:$2.841B (+20.2% reported), including Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta contributions [12]
- Oncology portfolio revenue:$1.682B (roughly flat), including Imbruvica and Venclexta [13]
- Adjusted diluted EPS (Q3):$1.86 [14]
- Full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $10.61–$10.65 [15]
- A 2026 dividend increase of 5.5%, beginning with the dividend payable in February 2026 [16]
That dividend raise matters for sentiment because ABBV remains a widely held “income + defensiveness” name in many portfolios.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: targets are moving, but the debate is the same
The most useful way to read the current analyst tape is: price targets are generally above the current price, but firms disagree on how much upside is realistic given policy risk and pipeline visibility in 2026.
Bullish signals: upgrades and higher targets tied to “policy overhang fading” + execution
- HSBC upgrade (Dec. 10, 2025): Benzinga reported HSBC upgraded AbbVie from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $225 to $265. [17]
Investing.com’s write‑up framed AbbVie as a “preferred play” citing earnings momentum, valuation metrics, and a dividend yield around ~3%, while also pointing to a “lack of LOE” as supportive of the outlook. [18] - Morgan Stanley (Dec. 2025): A TipRanks/TheFly note said Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $269 from $261 and kept an Overweight rating, explicitly arguing that policy overhangs could wane in 2026, bringing focus back to fundamentals. [19]
- Piper Sandler (post‑earnings view): Another TheFly note (via TipRanks) cited Piper Sandler raising its target to $289 from $284 with an Overweight rating, pointing to higher Skyrizi estimates in later years and optimism about AbbVie’s neuroscience segment being underappreciated. [20]
Cautious view: “premium multiple vs. a lighter catalyst calendar”
- BofA (mid‑December 2025): TheFly/Tipranks reported BofA lowered its price target to $233 from $248 and kept a Neutral rating, describing a “clean setup” for growth but weighing that against a premium multiple and limited late‑stage pipeline catalysts, and shifting valuation framing toward FY27 estimates. [21]
That tension—great current execution vs. how many “new” catalysts arrive in 2026—is a big reason why ABBV’s analyst targets range widely.
Consensus forecasts: what Wall Street’s “average” implies for ABBV
Because different platforms use different analyst sets and time windows, consensus numbers vary. Two commonly referenced snapshots:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month target $245.84, with a high $289 and low $194 (based on 24 analysts). [22]
- TipRanks: average target $252.21, high $289, low $218, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on recent ratings. [23]
Read together, these suggest that the street’s middle expects high‑single‑digit to low‑teens upside over the next year—while the bull case leans on Skyrizi/Rinvoq durability and a calmer policy backdrop.
Current “stock narrative” catalysts heading into 2026
1) Competitive pressure in psoriasis and immunology isn’t slowing
A Reuters report on Takeda’s experimental AI‑developed psoriasis pill noted strong late‑stage results and framed the psoriasis market as crowded—explicitly listing AbbVie’s injectable Skyrizi among established competitors. [24]
This doesn’t mean Skyrizi is suddenly at risk tomorrow; it does mean investors will keep tracking whether oral entrants can expand the market or take share in specific patient segments.
2) Oncology momentum includes FDA approvals, but investors still watch legacy declines
AbbVie’s oncology portfolio includes both growth assets and mature products under pressure. One notable recent approval: the FDA approved epcoritamab-bysp (Epkinly) with lenalidomide and rituximab for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma (approval date Nov. 18, 2025), according to the FDA. [25]
AbbVie also highlighted the approval in its own announcement. [26]
At the same time, AbbVie’s Q3 readout showed Imbruvica sales declining year‑over‑year. [27]
And as noted above, Imbruvica is also part of Medicare’s first negotiated set, keeping it in the policy conversation. [28]
3) International reimbursement signals (Skyrizi in Canada) can support the “durability” story
Press coverage noted that Canada’s Drug Agency (CDA‑AMC) recommended Skyrizi for reimbursement with conditions for adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis, tied to certain criteria. [29]
AbbVie’s Canadian news center also referenced this milestone. [30]
For ABBV investors, these steps matter because the Skyrizi/Rinvoq thesis isn’t just “U.S. growth”—it’s broader multi‑indication + global expansion.
4) Partnerships and pipeline options: ABBV‑230 with OSE Immunotherapeutics
A GlobeNewswire release from OSE Immunotherapeutics said the company amended its partnership with AbbVie on ABBV‑230, with OSE taking on responsibilities to conduct and fund a Phase 1 study while preserving AbbVie’s longer‑term option and commitment structure. [31]
Fierce Biotech also covered the amendment and its practical effect on phase‑1 responsibilities. [32]
For AbbVie, deals like this are part of a broader strategy: keep feeding the pipeline with partnered science while prioritizing capital.
Key risks investors are weighing right now
- Drug pricing policy path dependence (2026+): MFN‑style frameworks, IRA negotiation expansion, and pilot programs create scenario risk that can compress multiples—even if near‑term earnings remain strong. [33]
- Pipeline “timing” vs. valuation: Cautious notes (like BofA’s) suggest ABBV may need either a richer late‑stage catalyst calendar or clearer evidence of 2027+ growth to justify a sustained premium. [34]
- Competition in core franchises: New entrants in psoriasis and immunology (including oral options) could intensify competition for Skyrizi‑adjacent indications over time. [35]
- Legacy product erosion: Humira declines are expected, but investors still track whether growth franchises can keep offsetting LOEs and mature‑brand headwinds across the portfolio. [36]
Bottom line for the Dec. 20–21 news window
As of the 20.12.2025 weekend, AbbVie stock is being pulled by two forces at once:
- Positive fundamentals: Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth remains powerful, AbbVie raised 2025 EPS guidance, and management reaffirmed the shareholder‑return story with a dividend increase for 2026. [37]
- Policy and catalyst debate: Washington’s drug‑pricing push is back on front pages, with AbbVie among companies still expected to engage, while analysts debate how much of ABBV’s multiple should be “discounted” for policy uncertainty and 2026 pipeline pacing. [38]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. news.abbvie.com, 8. news.abbvie.com, 9. news.abbvie.com, 10. news.abbvie.com, 11. news.abbvie.com, 12. news.abbvie.com, 13. news.abbvie.com, 14. news.abbvie.com, 15. news.abbvie.com, 16. news.abbvie.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.fda.gov, 26. news.abbvie.com, 27. news.abbvie.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.biospace.com, 30. www.abbvie.ca, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. www.fiercebiotech.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. news.abbvie.com, 37. news.abbvie.com, 38. www.reuters.com
