Abivax (ABVX) Stock Jumps on Eli Lilly Takeover Rumors: Latest News, Outlook and Forecasts

Abivax Société Anonyme (Euronext Paris: ABVX, Nasdaq: ABVX) is back in the spotlight on December 10, 2025, after its share price spiked again on fresh takeover speculation involving U.S. pharma giant Eli Lilly. The move caps an extraordinary year in which the French biotech has transformed from a relatively obscure name into a multibillion‑euro inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) contender. ^[1]

Below is a detailed rundown of today’s news, the fundamental drivers, and the latest forecasts and analyses being published about Abivax.

1. Abivax stock today: how big is the move?

On December 10, 2025, Abivax shares on Euronext Paris traded around €115–120, up roughly 11–14% intraday, with the session range stretching from about €108.40 to a fresh 52‑week high near €126.60. ^[2]

Paris listing (ABVX.PA)
- Last quoted intraday price around €119–120, up about 13–14% on the day. ^[3]
- 52‑week range: roughly €4.5 to €126.6 – an enormous re‑rating over 2025. ^[4]
Nasdaq ADR (ABVX)
- Closed Dec 9 at $123.04, up 6.94% on that day. ^[5]
- Pre‑market trading on Dec 10 pushed the ADRs into the $135–138 area, up more than 10–11%, implying a market capitalization around $9.5 billion. ^[6]

Over the year, Reuters notes that Abivax’s market value has grown from about €500 million in January to roughly €8–9.7 billion, an 18‑fold increase – making it one of 2025’s standout biotech performers globally. ^[7]

2. Today’s main catalyst: Eli Lilly takeover rumors

The dominant story on December 10 is a Reuters report that Abivax’s shares jumped around 20% on market rumours that Eli Lilly might be interested in bidding for the company. ^[8]

Key points from the takeover chatter:

Rumor‑driven move:
Reuters and other outlets describe the surge as being driven by speculation, not by any announced deal. A Stifel analyst is quoted saying the price move “is driven by speculation around a possible takeover.” ^[9]
No confirmation:
Both Abivax and Eli Lilly declined to comment or did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and there is no formal bid or binding proposal publicly disclosed as of publication. ^[10]
Paris reaction:
MarketScreener reports that at around 10:30 GMT, Abivax shares were up ~19.6% to €125.60, implying a market cap near €9.7 billion. ^[11]
U.S. pre‑market reaction:
Benzinga’s pre‑market rundown lists Abivax among the top‑moving healthcare names, with the ADRs up 11.63% to $137.36 and a market value of approximately $9.5 billion. ^[12]

So far this is rumor, not deal: traders are essentially pricing in some probability that a large‑cap pharma — with Lilly the name currently circulating — may prefer to buy obefazimod rather than compete head‑on in IBD.

3. What Abivax actually does: obefazimod and the IBD opportunity

Abivax is a clinical‑stage biotechnology company focused on chronic inflammatory diseases, most notably ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease. Its entire investment story currently revolves around one lead asset:

Obefazimod
- An investigational, once‑daily oral therapy that enhances the expression of microRNA‑124 (miR‑124), a natural regulator of the inflammatory response. ^[13]
- In preclinical work, upregulating miR‑124 appears to normalize multiple inflammatory mediators only under dysregulated conditions, hinting at immune modulation without broad suppression. ^[14]
- If approved, obefazimod could inaugurate an entirely new drug class of miR‑124 enhancers in inflammatory disease. ^[15]

Abivax’s pipeline is tightly focused on this molecule: ^[16]

Phase 3 ABTECT program in moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (induction completed; maintenance ongoing).
Phase 2b ENHANCE‑CD trial in Crohn’s disease, with 12‑week induction data targeted for the second half of 2026.
Early‑stage work on combinations (e.g., with etrasimod) and potential follow‑on compounds leveraging the same mechanism.

This high concentration on one asset is central to both the upside and the risk story.

4. Recent clinical data: why the stock re‑rated in 2025

4.1 Phase 3 induction success in ulcerative colitis

The current rally sits on top of a massive earlier re‑rating driven by positive Phase 3 data:

In July 2025, Abivax announced that the two 8‑week ABTECT induction trials in moderate‑to‑severe UC met their primary endpoint of clinical remission at the 50 mg dose. ^[17]
Across both studies, obefazimod 50 mg achieved about a 16.4‑percentage‑point placebo‑adjusted increase in clinical remission at week 8, one of the strongest remission deltas reported in a large UC Phase 3 program. ^[18]
Secondary endpoints — including endoscopic improvement and clinical response — were also met, with a safety profile that did not reveal new signals in this dataset. ^[19]

These results helped send the stock up more than 400–500% in a single session upon initial release and underpinned the year‑to‑date move of well over 1,000% in 2025. ^[20]

4.2 Patient‑reported outcomes (November 2025 update)

On November 4, 2025, Abivax released pooled patient‑reported outcome (PRO) data from the same induction trials, focusing on symptoms that matter day‑to‑day for UC patients: ^[21]

Bowel urgency: 37% of patients on 50 mg reported no urgency at week 8 vs 18.1% on placebo.
Nocturnal bowel movements: 47.6% had no nocturnal episodes vs 24.7% on placebo.
Fatigue: Fatigue remission was observed in 17.1% vs 7.7% on placebo.

These PROs are secondary, non–multiplicity‑controlled endpoints, so they may not directly translate into bold label claims. But they strengthen the narrative that obefazimod could not only achieve remission on paper but also improve quality‑of‑life measures such as sleep and work productivity — a potential differentiator in a very crowded UC market. ^[22]

4.3 Next clinical catalysts

According to Abivax: ^[23]

44‑week ABTECT maintenance data are expected in Q2 2026.
ENHANCE‑CD 12‑week Crohn’s induction data are targeted for 2H 2026.
If maintenance results are positive, the company is planning to submit U.S. New Drug Application (NDA) and EU Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) in the second half of 2026.

The entire multi‑billion‑euro valuation is now largely a discounted bet on that 2026 regulatory timetable.

5. Financial position: big cash raise, long runway, ongoing losses

Abivax remains pre‑revenue in terms of commercial product sales and continues to post losses, but its balance sheet changed dramatically in mid‑2025.

5.1 First‑half 2025 results

From its first‑half 2025 financial results: ^[24]

Total operating income was modest (a few million euros), in line with a clinical‑stage biotech that generates primarily grants and tax credits rather than product sales.
Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2025 stood at €60.9 million, down from €144.2 million at year‑end 2024, reflecting heavy R&D and operating spend.

Shareholders’ equity at that date was negative, which is not unusual for high‑burn biotechs but underscores the need for fresh capital. ^[25]

5.2 The $747.5 million public offering

Abivax addressed this in July 2025 with a very large U.S. equity raise:

The company closed an underwritten public offering of 11,679,400 ADSs, generating gross proceeds of about $747.5 million (~€637.5 million) and estimated net proceeds of ~€597.2 million. ^[26]
Management now expects that existing cash plus the offering proceeds should fund operations into Q4 2027, including roughly 12 months of runway beyond the planned 2026 NDA submission (assuming positive maintenance results). ^[27]

In other words: dilution has already happened, but in exchange Abivax now has runway that plausibly carries obefazimod through Phase 3, regulatory submissions, and early launch—if everything goes right.

Investors should be aware that some trading blogs and shorter‑term commentary cite much higher revenue and cash‑flow figures that are inconsistent with Abivax’s own regulatory filings; when in doubt, the audited or reviewed financial statements filed with the SEC and French regulators are the more reliable reference. ^[28]

6. How analysts and markets are valuing Abivax

6.1 U.S. ADR consensus: “Strong Buy” with wide target range

The StockAnalysis.com forecast page for the Nasdaq‑listed ADSs (ABVX) aggregates 12 Wall Street analysts and shows: ^[29]

Consensus rating:Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$112.83, implying around 8% downside vs the Dec 9 close of $123.04 (and more downside vs today’s higher pre‑market levels).
Target range:
- Low: $33
- Median: $114
- High: $176

This tells you two important things:

Analysts are broadly bullish on the drug and the company.
There is huge dispersion in how much value they assign — a hallmark of high‑risk biotech stories.

A separate MarketBeat options‑volume article published December 9 highlights that: ^[30]

Traders bought 3,575 call options in a single day, 82% above the average daily call volume.
The average analyst target cited there is about $123 with a “Moderate Buy” rating, and individual firms like Guggenheim, Barclays, BTIG and Truist have boosted targets up to $140–150+.

Finviz and AInvest‑linked coverage similarly emphasise that firms such as Truist Securities and Barclays have launched or reiterated bullish coverage with targets between $140 and $176, reinforcing the notion that a subset of the Street sees substantial further upside if obefazimod’s launch goes well. ^[31]

6.2 Paris‑listed shares: average target below the current price

On the Euronext Paris line, MarketScreener’s consensus for Abivax shows: ^[32]

Mean analyst consensus:BUY
Number of covering analysts: 5
Average target price:€93.29
Last close referenced:€105.00 at the time of that snapshot, implying about 11% downside vs that earlier price — and even more downside versus today’s €115–120 band.

Investing.com echoes a similar average target around €93.3, with a Buy stance but notes that the stock is now trading well above that target range after its recent spike. ^[33]

The net message: in Europe, analysts are positive on the company but increasingly cautious on valuation, especially after the latest rumor‑driven rally.

7. Fresh narrative pieces published on December 10, 2025

Several pieces of analysis and commentary hitting the wires today frame how professional and retail investors are thinking about Abivax:

Reuters / TradingView: Focuses on the Eli Lilly takeover rumor, the 20% share price surge, and the fact that Abivax’s valuation has multiplied roughly 18x since January, from about €500 million to around €8 billion. ^[34]
StockstoTrade – “Abivax Stock: What Lies Ahead?”
- Takes a short‑term trader’s view, highlighting the 6.94% gain on Dec 9, momentum around Phase 3 data and upcoming 2026 readouts.
- Frames Abivax as a high‑beta biotech momentum name whose next major catalyst is the Crohn’s and maintenance data in 2026. ^[35]
Simply Wall St – “Is Obefazimod’s Phase 3 UC Success Reshaping The Investment Case For ABIVAX?”
- Emphasizes that the investment thesis is essentially: Can obefazimod go from promising Phase 3 data to an approved, commercially successful drug before cash burn and dilution catch up?
- Stresses that Abivax remains a loss‑making, clinical‑stage company with negative equity and that the stock’s huge 2025 move does not remove core risks around regulation, competition and future financing terms. ^[36]
AInvest – “Valuation Resilience in High‑Growth Biotech and Industrial Innovation Stocks” (Abivax section)
- Labels Abivax a “high‑risk, high‑reward” biotech.
- Notes the $747.5 million July offering as a key de‑risking event on the funding side, while also pointing to an 81.3% revenue decline and negative earnings.
- Argues that Abivax’s valuation is anchored to its pipeline rather than current earnings, with roughly 10 Buy ratings and a perceived fair‑value range of $101–176 per share. ^[37]

Put together, today’s coverage paints a picture of a stock caught between fundamental optimism and speculative euphoria.

8. Key risks investors and analysts are flagging

Despite the excitement, virtually every serious analysis of Abivax highlights significant risk factors:

Single‑asset dependence
- Obefazimod currently represents almost all of Abivax’s valuation. Any safety signal, regulatory delay, or weaker‑than‑expected maintenance data could severely hit the stock. ^[38]
Regulatory uncertainty
- The 2026 NDA/MAA plans hinge on clean, convincing 44‑week maintenance data. Regulators will scrutinize long‑term safety, steroid‑free remission, durability of effect, and PRO hierarchy. ^[39]
Competition in ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s
- Abivax will face entrenched biologics and orals from players like AbbVie, J&J, BMS and others. Any label restrictions, pricing pressure, or payer hurdles could materially reduce peak‑sales potential vs current bullish models. ^[40]
Valuation and downside risk
- The Paris‑listed consensus target (€93.29) sits below current prices, and some analysts (e.g., JMP in recent U.S. initiation) have issued low targets in the $30s, underscoring how sensitive valuation is to assumptions about market share, pricing and probability of success. ^[41]
Balance sheet structure
- While the July 2025 raise extended runway into late 2027, it also significantly diluted existing shareholders, and Abivax may still need to raise additional capital for a full commercial rollout or for label expansions beyond UC. ^[42]
Rumor‑driven volatility
- Today’s move is explicitly tied to market talk about Eli Lilly, not to new data or a signed term sheet. If no bid emerges, some of the premium built into the stock on deal hopes could unwind quickly. ^[43]

9. How to think about Abivax after the December 10 spike

From the perspective of current coverage and forecasts:

Bullish case
- Obefazimod’s Phase 3 induction data and PROs suggest a differentiated oral therapy with strong efficacy and meaningful symptom relief in difficult‑to‑treat UC patients. ^[44]
- The 2025 equity raise gives Abivax multiple years of cash runway and enough firepower to bring the drug through pivotal milestones without immediate further dilution. ^[45]
- Analyst coverage is overwhelmingly Buy/Strong Buy, with some price targets implying 40%+ upside from pre‑rumor levels, particularly in the U.S. ADR. ^[46]
Bearish or cautious case
- The stock already reflects very high expectations, trading above many published target prices, especially on Euronext. ^[47]
- Abivax is still loss‑making, with no approved product and a risk that late‑stage or regulatory events in 2026–2027 fall short of the current hype. ^[48]
- Takeover rumors may ultimately prove unfounded; investors buying purely on M&A hopes are exposed to sharp reversals if no deal materializes. ^[49]

Crucially, none of today’s news changes the fundamental long‑term equation: Abivax is a high‑risk, binary‑style biotech story priced as if obefazimod will successfully navigate Phase 3 maintenance, regulators, payers and competition.

10. Important disclaimer

This article summarizes publicly available information and analyst commentary as of December 10, 2025. It is not investment advice, does not take into account your personal financial situation, and should not be used as the sole basis for any investment decision. Biotech stocks, especially single‑asset clinical‑stage companies, can be extremely volatile and may result in significant losses.

For anyone tracking the name, the most important next milestones to watch are:

Further regulatory and conference disclosures on obefazimod;
The ABTECT 44‑week maintenance readout (Q2 2026);
Early data from the Crohn’s ENHANCE‑CD trial (2H 2026);
And, in the nearer term, any clarification or denial of the Eli Lilly takeover rumors.