PARIS / NEW YORK — December 22, 2025 — ABIVAX Société Anonyme (Abivax SA) stock is back in the spotlight on Monday after renewed takeover chatter tied to U.S. pharma giant Eli Lilly—arriving the same morning Abivax’s addition to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) becomes effective. The combination is fueling a sharp move in ABVX shares and re-igniting debate about whether 2025’s biotech breakout is now morphing into an M&A (mergers and acquisitions) story.
What’s happening with ABIVAX stock today (December 22, 2025)
Abivax shares rose sharply in Monday trading as media reports revived speculation that Eli Lilly could be exploring a deal for the French biotech. Reuters’ market update cited Abivax jumping 7.6% on the day amid takeover chatter. [1]
A separate Reuters market note carried by TradingView put the move at about +8% early on and described Abivax as the top performer on France’s SBF 120 at the time. [2]
Other wire coverage showed the rally extending into the low-to-mid teens as the session progressed: a Dow Jones report published via MarketScreener said Abivax shares were up 14% at €114.4 in early afternoon European trading. [3]
The immediate trigger across reports: French publication La Lettre reportedly claimed Lilly representatives met with French Treasury officials earlier this month to discuss the regulatory framework around a potential acquisition—an item Reuters noted it could not independently confirm in its market brief. [4]
The deal rumor: what’s actually being reported (and what isn’t)
The La Lettre angle matters because it points to process, not just vibes.
According to Dow Jones’ account, a Lilly delegation met with France’s Treasury on December 10 to submit a takeover proposal to an initial test under French foreign direct investment rules—suggesting at least exploratory engagement with the state’s screening mechanisms rather than simple market gossip. [5]
But two key guardrails remain firmly in place:
- No confirmed bid: Reuters noted it could not immediately confirm the report referenced in the market update. [6]
- No corporate confirmation: Eli Lilly reiterated it does not comment on “business development activity,” while Abivax said it does not comment on market rumors/speculation (per Reuters and Dow Jones coverage). [7]
In other words, today’s price action is being driven by probabilities and positioning, not a signed term sheet.
Why rumors keep sticking to Abivax
Abivax has been a magnet for speculation since it delivered blockbuster clinical data earlier this year and rapidly re-rated from “small biotech” to “large-cap target.”
Reuters previously reported that Abivax’s Paris-listed shares surged more than 500% in a day after the company announced positive Phase 3 data in July, and that the stock was tracking toward a 17-fold increase in value year-to-date at one point in December as takeover rumors intensified. [8]
That kind of repricing does two things at once:
- It makes the company visible to global pharma decision-makers.
- It makes the stock tradeable enough for fast money, which can amplify every whisper.
Catalyst #2 today: Abivax joins the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index
While takeover talk is the headline-grabber, today also carries a clean, factual catalyst: index mechanics.
Abivax announced on December 18, 2025 that it would be added to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) effective prior to market open on Monday, December 22, 2025. [9]
The company framed it as a visibility milestone, with CFO Didier Blondel pointing to progress advancing obefazimod through Phase 3 ulcerative colitis trials. [10]
Abivax also summarized how the index works: NBI is designed to track Nasdaq-listed biotech/pharma names, is evaluated annually in December, and includes eligibility requirements such as minimum market cap, trading volume, and public-company seasoning. [11]
Financial data providers echoed the change on the effective date; S&P Capital IQ coverage via MarketScreener flagged ABIVAX Société Anonyme as added to the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index on 12/22/2025. [12]
Why index inclusion can matter for ABVX shareholders
Index additions don’t magically change a drug’s clinical odds—but they can affect market structure:
- Visibility: More screens, more mandates, more global attention.
- Liquidity: Index-linked strategies and benchmarked funds may rebalance around inclusion windows.
- Narrative reinforcement: “Included in NBI” is a shorthand signal that the company has cleared size/liquidity thresholds often associated with institutional relevance.
That’s not a guarantee of sustained upside—but it can change who is allowed to own the stock and how flows behave during catalysts.
The fundamental story: obefazimod is still the core driver
For all the takeover noise, Abivax remains—fundamentally—a clinical-stage biotech with value concentrated in one lead asset: obefazimod (ABX464).
What Abivax reported in the Phase 3 ABTECT induction trials
In its July 22, 2025 release, Abivax reported positive topline results from two Phase 3, 8-week induction trials (ABTECT-1 and ABTECT-2) in moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.
Key highlights the company emphasized:
- A pooled 16.4% placebo-adjusted clinical remission rate at Week 8 for the 50 mg once-daily dose, with strong statistical significance. [13]
- The 50 mg dose met the primary endpoint in both trials and met key secondary endpoints, with a favorable tolerability profile and no new safety signals highlighted in the topline summary. [14]
- A large trial footprint: 1,275 randomized patients across 600+ sites in 36 countries, and 678 patients entering the maintenance study responder cohort. [15]
The next big clinical readout: maintenance data in 2026
Abivax said the ABTECT Maintenance Trial (44-week) is ongoing, with topline results expected in Q2 2026. [16]
The company also signaled its regulatory ambition: contingent on positive maintenance results, it intends to submit an NDA to the FDA and an MAA to the EMA in the second half of 2026. [17]
For investors, that means 2026 is not “just more waiting”—it’s where the ABVX valuation either earns its premium or gets stress-tested.
Recent operational updates: cash runway and scientific momentum
Financial position and runway
On December 15, 2025, Abivax reported cash and cash equivalents of €589.7 million as of September 30, 2025, and said it expects to fund forecasted cash flow requirements into Q4 2027. [18]
That runway matters because it can:
- reduce near-term dilution pressure (relative to peers),
- strengthen negotiation posture in partnership/M&A scenarios,
- support large Phase 3 and pre-commercial planning activities.
ECCO 2026 visibility: 22 abstracts accepted
On December 17, 2025, Abivax announced acceptance of 22 scientific abstracts evaluating obefazimod in inflammatory bowel disease for presentation at ECCO 2026 (Feb. 18–21, 2026 in Stockholm). [19]
The release also highlighted an oral presentation featuring preclinical anti-fibrotic findings—positioning the program as broader than ulcerative colitis symptom control alone, at least in early scientific exploration. [20]
ABIVAX stock forecasts: what analysts are projecting right now
Analyst forecasts for Abivax are unusually sensitive to two variables:
- the probability-weighted value of obefazimod’s path to approval, and
- the non-zero chance of a strategic transaction.
Here’s what current consensus-style snapshots show (noting that targets can change quickly in biotech, especially after major price moves):
- TipRanks lists an average 12‑month ABVX price target around $145.67 (with a wide range between roughly $74 and $176, based on its displayed analyst set at the time). [21]
- MarketBeat shows an average price target near $128.73, and summarizes recent ratings as mostly “Buy” with at least one “Hold,” reflecting a more cautious (or more recently updated) stance depending on the contributing analyst notes. [22]
- MarketScreener (European view) shows a consensus-style panel where the average target price displayed was €93.29 versus a referenced €100 “last close” on that page, implying some analysts see the stock as ahead of their base-case valuation assumptions. [23]
How to interpret these targets without being fooled by false precision
Price targets are not physics. They’re models—often built on:
- assumed peak sales in ulcerative colitis,
- estimated probability of approval,
- competitive landscape assumptions,
- discount rates,
- and sometimes a “strategic value” premium if M&A is considered plausible.
When a stock is moving 8% to 15% in a single session on rumor, targets can lag reality—or get revised abruptly.
What to watch next for ABVX stock (the practical investor checklist)
1) Any escalation from “rumor” to “process”
If credible reporting evolves from “met with officials” to “non-binding indication” or “formal approach,” the stock’s behavior can change fast—often from directional momentum to spread-trading dynamics (where investors handicap deal probability and deal price).
For now, major coverage still describes the situation as unconfirmed chatter, with both companies declining substantive comment. [24]
2) Index-related flow settling after inclusion
With NBI inclusion effective today, traders will watch whether volume normalizes after rebalancing-related activity, and whether ABVX holds gains once mechanical demand fades. [25]
3) Clinical calendar into ECCO 2026 and the maintenance readout
ECCO presentations in February 2026 keep the scientific narrative warm, but the market’s big binary lever is still the Q2 2026 maintenance topline. [26]
4) Cash usage and capital-markets strategy
Abivax’s reported runway into Q4 2027 reduces immediate financing pressure, but investors will still monitor burn, any shifts in spending, and whether the company chooses to raise opportunistically—especially if shares remain elevated. [27]
Bottom line: ABIVAX is trading like a “catalyst stack,” not a quiet biotech
On December 22, 2025, ABIVAX Société Anonyme stock is moving on two simultaneous forces:
- Speculation: revived Eli Lilly takeover chatter, with media reports pointing to regulatory conversations and both companies offering no confirmation beyond standard non-comment language. [28]
- Structure: the clean, confirmed catalyst of joining the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index effective today. [29]
Underneath both is the real engine: obefazimod’s Phase 3 program and the approaching maintenance readout in 2026, which remains the key milestone for turning “clinical promise” into “regulatory pathway.” [30]
As ever with biotech: the story can change in a headline—but it settles in the data.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.marketscreener.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.marketscreener.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.globenewswire.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.globenewswire.com, 30. www.globenewswire.com
