NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 3:33 p.m. ET — Market closed.
Adobe Inc. shares are heading into the weekend with investors still weighing two competing narratives: a company that just posted record results and reaffirmed a double‑digit annual recurring revenue growth target—against persistent concerns that generative AI is reshaping creative software faster than the market can model. [1]
With U.S. exchanges closed Saturday, the next real test for sentiment will come when trading resumes on Monday, Dec. 29, with holiday-thinned liquidity and year-end positioning still in play across tech. [2]
Adobe stock price action into the close
Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) finished Friday’s session at $353.80, up about 0.2% on the day after trading in a tight range around the mid‑$350s. [3]
Friday’s broader tape was subdued: Investopedia reported the Nasdaq ended down 0.1%, while the Dow and S&P 500 finished fractionally lower—though all three major indexes still logged weekly gains of more than 1% in a holiday-shortened week. [4]
The last 24 to 48 hours of Adobe-related headlines: what investors are reading
In the past 24–48 hours, Adobe’s stock-related coverage has centered on three themes:
1) AI ecosystem and partnerships as a growth lever
A Zacks analysis carried by Nasdaq highlighted Adobe’s expanding partner base—calling out major cloud and AI players such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Google and OpenAI—and framed partnerships as a key pathway to accelerate product momentum and adoption. [5]
2) Earnings estimates and revisions as a near-term signal
A separate Zacks piece syndicated on Finviz focused on earnings estimate revisions and near-term fundamentals, noting the stock has been heavily searched and pointing to consensus expectations around the current quarter’s EPS and revenue trajectory. [6]
3) Institutional positioning via 13F-related updates
MarketBeat published multiple updates tied to institutional filings, including examples of funds increasing stakes (such as Pacer Advisors and Highland Capital Management) and others trimming positions. [7]
AI partnerships are becoming the battleground
Adobe has been leaning into a “model choice” strategy in Firefly—positioning its platform as a hub where creators can access multiple generative models and then move that output into familiar pro workflows (Premiere Pro, After Effects, Creative Cloud). That strategy gained fresh validation in mid‑December with Adobe’s newly announced partnership with Runway.
In its Dec. 18 announcement, Adobe said the multi-year deal would integrate Runway’s generative video models into Adobe’s creative tooling, with early access beginning through the Adobe Firefly app. Adobe CTO Ely Greenfield said: “As AI transforms video production, pros are turning to Adobe’s creative ecosystem… to imagine, craft and scale their stories across every screen.” [8]
Runway CEO Cristóbal Valenzuela, in the same release, framed the partnership as a way to place Runway’s models “inside Adobe’s creative tools that are already the industry standard.” [9]
Why it matters for ADBE stock: Zacks’ recent commentary suggests the market is rewarding companies that can credibly show distribution, workflow integration, and enterprise adoption—not just flashy model demos. [10]
Earnings and guidance: the numbers still driving the setup
Adobe’s most recent earnings release (for Q4 and FY2025, issued Dec. 10) is still the fundamental anchor for the stock:
- Q4 FY2025 revenue: $6.19 billion (about 10% year-over-year growth), with non‑GAAP EPS of $5.50. [11]
- FY2025 revenue: $23.77 billion, and Total Adobe ARR exiting the year of $25.20 billion (11.5% year-over-year growth). [12]
- FY2026 targets: total revenue $25.90–$26.10 billion and non‑GAAP EPS $23.30–$23.50, alongside a target of 10.2% Total Adobe ending ARR growth. [13]
- Q1 FY2026 targets: total revenue $6.25–$6.30 billion and non‑GAAP EPS $5.85–$5.90. [14]
Management has been explicit about positioning Adobe as an “AI ecosystem” beneficiary. CEO Shantanu Narayen said Adobe’s FY2025 results reflect “our growing importance in the global AI ecosystem and the rapid adoption of our AI-driven tools.” [15]
For investors, the practical takeaway is that Monday’s trading is less about old-quarter results and more about whether Wall Street believes Adobe can translate AI feature adoption into durable ARR growth—without margin erosion or share loss to new creative entrants. [16]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: upside targets vs. a “Hold” consensus
Analyst views remain mixed, even as consensus price targets imply upside from current levels.
MarketBeat’s compilation of 29 analyst ratings lists a consensus “Hold” rating, with an average 12‑month price target of $417.93 (with targets ranging from $280 to $540, per its dataset). [17]
MarketBeat’s feed also points to recent target revisions and reiterated calls from major firms. Examples shown include:
- Citigroup lifting its target to $387 (listed under analyst Tyler Radke). [18]
- BMO Capital Markets trimming its target to $400 (listed under analyst Keith Bachmann). [19]
- UBS showing a $487 target with analyst Karl Keirstead listed in the same feed. [20]
Meanwhile, Zacks’ framework has emphasized estimate revisions and near-term expectations—pointing to a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and publishing consensus figures around the current quarter EPS and sales growth expectations in its syndicated commentary. [21]
Institutional flow watch: what the latest filings signal
Late-year filing headlines are rarely single‑handedly market-moving, but they can influence the narrative when a stock is consolidating.
Recent MarketBeat write-ups tied to SEC filing data highlighted:
- Pacer Advisors raising its stake (MarketBeat reported 1,169,812 shares held after adding 104,230 shares). [22]
- Highland Capital Management increasing its stake (MarketBeat reported a 45% increase in the position). [23]
- A separate update noting Mogy Joel R Investment Counsel cut its Adobe stake (MarketBeat reported a 29.2% reduction). [24]
None of these items, on their own, “explains” Friday’s close—but together they reinforce that Adobe remains heavily institutionally owned and actively traded as funds rebalance into year-end. [25]
M&A overhang: Semrush deal is still part of the Adobe story
Even though it’s not a last‑48‑hours headline, the proposed Semrush acquisition continues to shape how investors frame Adobe’s Digital Experience strategy going into 2026.
In Adobe’s announcement, the company said the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions, including Semrush shareholder approval. [26]
Reuters previously reported the deal value at $1.9 billion and included a cautious outside take from Emarketer analyst Grace Harmon: “The price is steep… so Adobe is likely paying for strategic value.” [27]
Investors should keep an eye on any regulatory or integration updates, because large platform acquisitions—especially in software—can affect both growth expectations and risk premiums. [28]
What investors should know before the next session
With markets closed, here are the practical, near-term items to watch before Monday’s open:
- Holiday calendar effects: Investopedia noted next week is another holiday-shortened week, with stock and bond markets closed Thursday for New Year’s Day (and bond trading ending early Wednesday). Thin liquidity can amplify moves in mega-cap tech and high‑beta software. [29]
- Key technical levels from the latest tape: Friday’s intraday range (roughly low‑$352s to mid‑$356s) provides the most immediate reference points for traders heading into Monday. [30]
- Next major company catalyst: Adobe’s Investor Relations calendar lists its Q1 FY2026 earnings call for Thursday, March 12, 2026 (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time)—the next scheduled, high‑signal event for fundamentals. [31]
- AI product narrative: Watch for incremental signals—enterprise adoption, pricing, and workflow integration—from Adobe’s expanding ecosystem of partner models and video initiatives, including the Runway partnership that plugs directly into Firefly and downstream pro apps. [32]
Bottom line for ADBE stock heading into Monday
Adobe enters the next session with the stock holding around $354 and with Wall Street’s debate narrowed to a familiar question: can Adobe turn rapid AI feature adoption into sustained ARR growth and durable pricing power—fast enough to stay ahead of an increasingly crowded generative landscape? The market’s “Hold” consensus and wide dispersion of targets underscore that investors aren’t aligned yet, which can create opportunity—but also volatility—around the next data point. [33]
References
1. www.adobe.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. finviz.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. news.adobe.com, 9. news.adobe.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.adobe.com, 12. www.adobe.com, 13. www.adobe.com, 14. www.adobe.com, 15. www.adobe.com, 16. www.adobe.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. news.adobe.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. news.adobe.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.adobe.com, 32. news.adobe.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com
