New York, March 3, 2026, 16:08 (EST) — After-hours
- Tesla shares dropped roughly 3%, with investors pulling back on risk following a surge in energy prices.
- Early February car registrations in Europe painted a mixed picture for demand. More country-level updates are expected later this week.
- Traders are eyeing the oil shock to see if it stokes inflation and pushes back U.S. rate cuts.
Tesla shares dropped $10.34, or 2.6%, to $392.98 late Tuesday, caught up in the wider decline among growth stocks as markets responded to the newest jump in oil prices.
The drop is drawing attention right now. Tesla shares are known for sharp moves when traders toggle between “risk-on” and “risk-off”—particularly as inflation data and rate expectations jump around. When rate forecasts climb, that can pressure pricey growth stocks like Tesla, since a higher discount rate drags down the value of future profits.
Stocks slipped worldwide, while the dollar pushed higher, investors moving to safer ground as the Middle East conflict spread. “How much this war is disproportionately hitting Europe and other oil-importing countries is really being highlighted right now in the markets,” said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research & strategy at Charles Schwab in New York. Reuters
Oil prices surged to their highest marks since 2024, with Brent climbing roughly 6% to $82.44 a barrel and U.S. crude advancing about 6% to $75.66, according to Reuters. Andrew Lipow, who heads Lipow Oil Associates, said that if attacks target infrastructure, oil could tack on another $10, putting Brent near $90.
The jump in energy prices rattled rate expectations, with traders now pricing just a 30.7% probability of a Fed cut in June, according to CME’s FedWatch tool cited by Reuters. That’s a notable drop from 49.6% a week ago. Goldman Sachs analysts, looking at the inflation impact, said a lasting 10% upswing in oil would tack on 28 basis points to headline CPI.
Pressure hit across the board. The S&P 500 ETF SPY dropped 0.9%, with QQQ—tracking the Nasdaq—slipping 1.1% Tuesday. Tesla lagged behind even that tech-weighted drop.
Company-wise, early February figures out of Europe painted a mixed picture despite a stronger headline number. Tesla picked up market share in several spots — registrations shot up 55% in France, 74% in Spain, and 32% in Norway. But official data pointed to pullbacks in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy. Registrations stand in for sales here. Last year, Tesla’s sales across Europe dropped 27%, Reuters noted, with stiffer competition and an aging lineup in play. The company has reacted by introducing lower-priced versions of both the Model Y and Model 3.
Spain was a notable exception. Tesla logged a 73.7% jump in new car registrations there last month, reaching 1,595 vehicles in February, according to ANFAC. For January and February combined, sales climbed 72.9%.
Even so, traders didn’t view the initial European data as a clear pivot. Several markets dropped hard. Price cuts and incentives—common across the sector—tend to shuffle registrations from month to month, particularly when deliveries hit in bulk.
There’s also the chance oil prices stay elevated. Persistent fuel and shipping expenses could keep inflation concerns alive, weighing on rate-sensitive stocks—even if Tesla’s short-term sales numbers get better.
Oil may remain high for several days, analysts said, as traders zero in on the Strait of Hormuz and monitor supply risks. Citi put Brent’s potential range at $80 to $90 through at least the next week. Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi noted the market could absorb a shutdown lasting one to two weeks, but after week three, the fallout would “escalate rapidly.” Reuters
Tesla followers are eyeing the upcoming set of European demand numbers. On Thursday, March 5, Britain’s SMMT will release February new car registration stats—an early indicator for the month that comes as investors digest Tuesday’s risk-off slide.
