Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM) is heading into the final weeks of 2025 at the center of two opposite forces: booming “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) demand and rapidly intensifying regulatory scrutiny. As of the close on December 5, 2025, AFRM traded around $67.99, giving the fintech a market capitalization of roughly $22.4 billion after a volatile year that saw the stock trade between $30.90 and $100.00 over the past 12 months. [1]
In the last month alone, Affirm reported another profitable quarter, raised its fiscal 2026 guidance, signed a high-profile holiday partnership with Pacsun, and watched its CFO sell a large chunk of his equity — all while seven U.S. state attorneys general launched a coordinated probe of BNPL lenders, including Affirm. [2]
Here is a deep dive into AFRM stock as of December 7, 2025 — including the latest news, earnings trends, analyst forecasts, and the key risks investors are wrestling with.
AFRM stock price now: high-growth fintech with high-volatility DNA
Affirm’s closing price of $67.99 on December 5 leaves the stock more than double its 52‑week low but still about one‑third below its 12‑month high of $100. [3]
Key snapshot metrics:
- Market cap: about $22.4 billion
- Trailing 12-month revenue: roughly $3.46 billion
- Trailing net income: about $233 million (Affirm is now profitable on a trailing basis)
- Trailing P/E ratio: around 100x
- Forward P/E: about 21x, reflecting expectations of rapid earnings growth
- Beta: roughly 3.6, underscoring that AFRM tends to move more than the broader market in both directions [4]
Technically, AFRM is trading below its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages (about $71.7 and $70.8, respectively), after a recent pullback. Over the last three months, the stock is down roughly 21%, but it remains up about 11–12% year to date and only modestly negative (around ‑4%) over the past year. [5]
Put simply: the market is treating Affirm as a high‑growth, high‑risk fintech — with a valuation that assumes management can keep compounding revenue and profits while successfully navigating regulation and consumer credit risk.
Fresh December headlines: CFO share sale, Pacsun partnership and investor moves
CFO Robert O’Hare’s big stock sale
The most eye‑catching insider move this week came from Affirm CFO Robert O’Hare, who sold 8,189 shares on December 3 at an average price of $70, totaling about $573,230. After the trade, he directly holds just 1,368 shares, a reduction of about 85.7% of his position, according to SEC filings summarized by MarketBeat and other outlets. [6]
Importantly, the transaction was executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan adopted in June 2025 — meaning it was pre‑scheduled rather than an on‑the‑spot decision based on new information. Still, sizable insider sales from senior executives often become short‑term sentiment overhangs, especially in richly valued growth names.
Institutional repositioning
A separate MarketBeat report noted that American Century Companies Inc. trimmed its AFRM position, while highlighting that roughly 69% of Affirm’s shares are held by institutions. Analysts tracked in that report maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average price target near $86.57, implying mid‑20s percentage upside versus current levels. [7]
Institutional flows don’t necessarily signal anything fundamental by themselves, but they matter in a stock with high volatility and a beta above 3. When big funds rebalance, moves in AFRM can be amplified.
New Pacsun holiday partnership
On December 4, Affirm announced a seasonal tie‑up with Pacsun, the youth‑oriented fashion retailer. Through December 18, 2025, Pacsun shoppers get 10% off purchases from the Holiday Gift Guide with promo code “AFFIRM,” regardless of payment method — but can also choose to pay with Affirm in interest‑free biweekly installments or monthly plans up to 24 months. [8]
The release also highlighted the scale of Affirm’s network: Pacsun joins a global roster of nearly 420,000 merchants, including large brands such as Amazon, Costco, StubHub, SeatGeek, Revolve, Net‑a‑Porter, StockX and Adidas. [9]
Seasonal partnerships like this may not be massive individually, but they reinforce Affirm’s positioning with Gen Z and millennial shoppers — precisely the demographic most likely to use BNPL.
Branding around “transparent credit”
On November 25, Affirm released survey data from 1,501 Canadians showing that consumers find credit card fine print harder to understand than tax forms or medication labels, and that hidden card fees frequently disrupt their budgeting. [10]
Affirm used the research to reinforce its core brand promise: no late fees and no hidden fees, with costs shown up front. Whether or not you buy the marketing, it’s clear the company is leaning hard into the narrative that traditional revolving credit is opaque and BNPL is cleaner — a framing that matters when regulators and state attorneys general start asking questions.
Investor communications ramp up
Affirm has also scheduled a CFO fireside chat for December 16, 2025, hosted by Truist, which will be webcast via the company’s investor relations site. [11]
Given the fresh scrutiny on BNPL and the multi‑state AG probe, that event is likely to attract extra attention from analysts and institutional investors looking for more detail on credit quality, funding costs and regulatory strategy.
Earnings recap: Affirm’s path to profitability and raised FY 2026 guidance
From heavy losses to consistent profits
Affirm had already impressed Wall Street with its fiscal Q4 2025 (reported in early autumn), when revenue jumped about 30–33% year over year to roughly $876 million, gross merchandise volume (GMV) hit a record $10.4 billion (up more than 40%), and the company delivered a GAAP operating profit for the first time since going public. Affirm also posted $0.20 in GAAP EPS, a sharp turnaround from a $0.14 loss a year earlier. [12]
Fiscal Q1 2026: strong growth and better margins
On November 6, 2025, Affirm followed that up with an even bigger quarter for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended September 30): [13]
- Revenue: $933.3 million, +34% year over year, beating consensus estimates around $881–881 million.
- GMV: $10.8 billion, +42% YoY, another record.
- GAAP diluted EPS:$0.23, versus a $0.31 loss in Q1 2025.
- Operating margin:6.8%, compared with ‑19.0% a year earlier.
- Adjusted operating margin:28.3%.
- Revenue‑less‑transaction‑cost (RLTC):4.2% of GMV, above management’s long‑term 3–4% target.
- Active consumers: 24.1 million (up from 19.5 million a year earlier).
- Active merchants: about 419,000, up from ~323,000.
- Transactions per active consumer: 6.1, versus 5.1 a year ago.
Affirm’s Card business is emerging as a key growth engine: card GMV reached $1.4 billion, up 135% year over year, with 2.8 million active cardholders, up 500,000 versus the previous quarter. Card transactions now account for roughly 12% of total transactions, up from around 10% a quarter earlier. [14]
Guidance raised for fiscal 2026
On the back of this momentum, management raised its full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance: [15]
- GMV: now > $47.5 billion, up from > $46.0 billion previously.
- GAAP operating margin: now > 7.5%, versus prior guidance > 6.0%.
- Adjusted operating margin: lifted to > 27.1%.
For Q2 FY 2026, Affirm is guiding to:
- Revenue:$1.03–1.06 billion.
- GMV:$13.0–13.3 billion.
- Adjusted operating margin:28–30%. [16]
Those numbers, if achieved, would confirm that Affirm’s profitability is not a one‑off spike but part of a more durable pattern.
Funding and capital: Liberty Mutual and ABS capacity
Affirm’s growth depends heavily on access to funding markets. On that front, the company has been steadily stacking up long‑term partners:
- In January 2025, Affirm expanded its capital partnership with Liberty Mutual Investments, which agreed to buy up to $750 million of loans initially and potentially invest up to $5 billion over time. [17]
- In late 2024, PGIM Fixed Income (Prudential) privately purchased $500 million of Affirm loans. [18]
- In Q1 2026, Affirm priced a $1.1 billion asset‑backed securities (ABS) deal at its lowest average yield since fiscal 2022, pushing total available funding capacity to roughly $26.6 billion, with an average funding cost around 6.7%. [19]
This capital stack allows Affirm to keep originating loans without ballooning its own balance sheet risk — but it also ties the business to ABS spreads and investor risk appetite.
Credit quality: better than feared, but still cyclical
Affirm’s Q1 2026 delinquency trends were mixed but generally reassuring: [20]
- 30+ day delinquencies (excluding legacy Peloton and Pay‑in‑X products) rose 45 basis points quarter over quarter, which management described as seasonal, but were still 4 bps lower year over year.
- Net charge‑offs on core products remain stable, around 3.5% on monthly installment loans and under 1% for Pay‑in‑4 transactions.
Management reiterated a long‑term RLTC target of 3–4% of GMV and said it intends to reinvest any excess above 4% into growth. That helps frame the trade‑off: a lot of the upside case for AFRM assumes the company can keep underwriting tightly enough to stay in that band even through a slower economy.
BNPL backdrop: booming holiday demand meets rising regulatory heat
BNPL is surging in holiday 2025
If you feel like every checkout page is pushing pay‑later options, you’re not imagining it. During the 2025 holiday season, BNPL spending from services like Affirm, Klarna, Afterpay and PayPal Pay Later reached about $10.1 billion from the start of November through Cyber Monday, up 9% year over year, according to Adobe data cited by The Washington Post. Cyber Monday alone saw about $1.03 billion in BNPL transactions — roughly 7% of all U.S. online spending that day. [21]
Separate industry research estimates the global BNPL market at about $560 billion in GMV in 2025, growing around 13–14% year over year, with user counts expected to approach 900 million globally by 2027. BNPL can boost merchant order values by 20–40% and meaningfully lift conversion rates. [22]
Those are the tailwinds Affirm is riding.
But a growing share of users are struggling
The same data that excites investors unnerves regulators. Industry surveys compiled by Chargeflow and LendingTree indicate that 34–41% of BNPL users reported making at least one late payment in the past year, with even higher rates among Gen Z. [23]
A Washington Post column this week bluntly framed BNPL as a “popular shopping strategy” that can quietly push people into debt, noting that almost half of users have encountered some financial problem — most commonly overspending. [24]
That tension — high consumer adoption, but rising concern about financial harm — is exactly why state attorneys general just turned up the heat.
Multi‑state AG probe hits Affirm and its peers
In early December, attorneys general from seven states — California, Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin — launched a coordinated inquiry into the BNPL sector. Letters sent to the six largest providers — Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, PayPal, Sezzle and Zip — demand detailed information on: [25]
- How BNPL lenders assess borrowers’ ability to repay
- How they handle returns, disputed charges and refunds
- The extent and clarity of late fees and other charges
- How and whether they report loans to credit bureaus
- The user experience at checkout, including screenshots of disclosures
The letters give companies 30 days to respond and do not yet announce enforcement actions, but they clearly signal that states are filling a regulatory vacuum left by the recent rollback of federal CFPB rules that would have treated BNPL more like traditional credit cards. [26]
In coverage of Minnesota’s role in the coalition, the state’s AG said the goal is to ensure that BNPL firms “comply with state law and treat consumers fairly,” while an Affirm spokesperson stressed that the company supports “thoughtful regulation” and industry standards that promote transparency. [27]
For AFRM shareholders, the near‑term risk is headline and policy risk: new state‑level rules around underwriting, disclosures or fees could add friction to Affirm’s growth model or pressure its unit economics.
Analysts’ latest views and price targets for AFRM stock
Consensus: bullish, but not universally euphoric
Across Wall Street, sentiment on AFRM is generally positive with a noticeable dose of caution.
- According to MarketBeat, the stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 3 “Strong Buy,” 18 “Buy” and 10 “Hold” ratings and an average price target of about $86.57 — roughly 27% above the current price. [28]
- StockAnalysis data shows 27 analysts covering AFRM with an overall “Buy” rating and an average 12‑month price target of $85.26, implying about 25% upside. [29]
Still, the range of targets is wide, and several recent notes emphasize both upside from growth and the downside risk from regulation and credit.
Oppenheimer: “Outperform” with an $80 target
In August, Oppenheimer initiated coverage on Affirm with an “Outperform” rating and a price target of $80, one of the higher targets on the Street. The firm highlighted Affirm’s transaction‑level underwriting model, which dynamically adjusts loan terms based on consumer and merchant data, and cited its processing of around $31 billion in GMV in 2024 across roughly 22 million active users. Analysts forecast GMV growth of 35% and 27% over the next two fiscal years, which they expect to translate into high‑20% growth in operating income. [30]
Zacks / Nasdaq: momentum story with a “Hold” rank
A recent Nasdaq‑hosted article from Zacks called Affirm a “top momentum stock for the long term”, pointing to strong revenue growth and a younger customer base that helped generate nearly $1 billion of revenue last quarter. At the same time, Zacks assigns AFRM a Rank #3 (Hold) with a composite Value‑Growth‑Momentum (VGM) Score of B, signaling some concern about valuation even as growth and momentum remain strong. [31]
AI‑driven models: modest edge, not a slam dunk
AI‑based analytics platform Danelfin currently rates AFRM a “Hold” with an AI Score of 5/10. Its model estimates a 54.79% probability that AFRM will beat the S&P 500 over the next three months — only 1.15 percentage points higher than the average U.S. stock in its universe. Danelfin also shows an aggregated analyst target around $95.13, implying about 40% upside from current levels. [32]
That mix — human analysts skewing Buy, AI models sitting at Hold — captures the core dilemma: the story is attractive, but much of it is already priced in.
Strategic drivers: Amazon, Apple Pay, Shopify and the Affirm Card
Amazon renewal through 2031 and expanding platforms
Affirm’s growth isn’t just about individual merchants; it’s about owning key “rails” in digital commerce.
In Q1 2026, the company extended its U.S. agreement with Amazon through January 2031, amending warrant terms in the process. Management also highlighted expanding distribution through Worldpay for Platforms, giving Affirm access to more than 1,000 SaaS platforms, and adding new capital partners such as New York Life to its funding base. [33]
These platform deals matter because they plug Affirm into many merchants at once — and help reduce reliance on any single partner.
Apple Pay integration moves BNPL fully in‑store
BNPL is no longer just an e‑commerce button. In September, Affirm and Klarna expanded their integration with Apple Pay, allowing users to access financing for in‑store purchases made via Apple Wallet, not just online. A CUNY Times Square Investment Journal piece notes that nearly 20% of the U.S. population uses Apple Pay, meaning this integration significantly broadens where Affirm can show up at checkout. [34]
Previously, in‑store BNPL with Affirm was largely tied to its Visa card offerings; integration with Apple Pay makes flexible payments available with just a few taps on an iPhone.
Shopify and international expansion
Affirm also powers Shop Pay Installments for Shopify merchants. A 2025 update from Affirm’s investor materials indicates that Shop Pay Installments are rolling out in Canada and the U.K., with cross‑border commerce capabilities — an important step in translating Affirm’s U.S. playbook to international markets. [35]
Combined with Amazon and Apple Pay, Shopify makes Affirm’s BNPL offering feel less like a standalone app and more like embedded financial infrastructure.
The Affirm Card and “agentic AI” future
Affirm increasingly talks about the Affirm Card as the “next era of BNPL,” effectively turning its installments into a card‑based experience that competes more directly with credit cards for everyday spending. Card GMV grew 135% year over year to $1.4 billion in Q1 FY 2026, and active cardholders reached 2.8 million. [36]
At the Reuters Momentum AI Finance conference in November, CEO Max Levchin argued that AI agents will soon shop and pay on consumers’ behalf, automatically steering them away from products loaded with hidden fees. He predicted that AI will help “eliminate business models designed to prey on lack of attention” and said Affirm was “built for this,” with products ready to plug into chatbots, browsers and digital wallets. [37]
If that vision plays out, Affirm’s “no late fees, transparent pricing” mantra could become a competitive asset in a world where software, not humans, comparison‑shops financial products.
Key risks for AFRM stock: regulation, credit cycle, competition and valuation
Regulatory risk is now front and center
The multi‑state AG inquiry is the clearest near‑term overhang. While it’s only an information request for now, it raises the probability of state‑level rules around:
- Ability‑to‑repay checks
- Limitations on or disclosures around late fees
- Requirements for credit‑bureau reporting of BNPL loans
- Stronger dispute and refund protections for consumers
Globally, regulators are converging on the view that BNPL should be treated more like traditional credit. Industry data showing that about 35–40% of BNPL users have made late payments only strengthens that case. [38]
Any new rules that materially increase friction at checkout or raise compliance costs could slow Affirm’s growth or compress RLTC margins.
Consumer credit and macro sensitivity
Affirm passes much of its credit risk through to investors via ABS and loan sales, but it still bears part of the loss curve and depends on stable portfolio performance to keep funding costs low.
If the labor market weakens or inflation squeezes households further, late payments and defaults could rise above the “seasonal” uptick seen in Q1 2026. Affirm’s data so far — modestly higher delinquencies quarter on quarter but lower year on year, with stable net charge‑offs — suggests its underwriting has held up, but those metrics could deteriorate in a sharper downturn. [39]
Competitive pressure from fintechs and banks
Affirm is fighting on multiple fronts:
- BNPL specialists like Klarna and Afterpay
- Payment giants such as PayPal
- Traditional banks and card issuers rolling out pay‑over‑time features
- Tech ecosystems like Apple that experimented with their own BNPL programs and now embed installment options into wallets and cards [40]
As BNPL penetration grows, pricing competition tends to intensify. Lower merchant fees or slimmer margins on loans could pressure Affirm’s revenue‑to‑GMV ratio, even if GMV continues to grow. Recent analyses have already flagged revenue yield compression from mix shifts toward 0% APR and shorter‑duration offers. [41]
Valuation leaves little room for big stumbles
Finally, there is the simple question of price:
- AFRM trades at roughly 100x trailing earnings, even after the recent pullback. [42]
- The stock is still down over the last quarter despite strong earnings beats, suggesting investors were positioned for a lot of good news already. [43]
If Affirm continues to grow GMV 30–40% annually while maintaining RLTC around 3–4% and expanding operating margins, the current valuation can be defended. But a combination of regulatory drag, higher credit losses or funding‑market stress could compress that multiple fast.
Outlook: what December 2025 means for AFRM heading into 2026
Going into 2026, AFRM sits at a crossroads:
- Fundamentals: Revenue and GMV are growing at ~30–40% year over year, profitability has flipped from steep losses to positive operating margins, and guidance has been raised. [44]
- Strategic position: Deep integrations with Amazon, Shopify and Apple Pay, plus a rapidly scaling Affirm Card, give the company broad reach across both online and in‑store commerce. [45]
- Macro tailwinds: Consumers are increasingly using BNPL to manage tighter budgets, especially during the holidays, and merchants value the conversion and basket‑size lift. [46]
- Macro and policy risks: BNPL is now squarely in regulators’ crosshairs, and a weaker consumer cycle could test Affirm’s underwriting and funding model. [47]
For investors, the key questions over the next 6–12 months are likely to be:
- Does Affirm hit its upgraded fiscal 2026 guidance on GMV, margins and profitability?
- How restrictive will state‑level or future federal rules be for BNPL providers, and how well can Affirm adapt?
- Can the Affirm Card and wallet integrations (Apple Pay, Shopify, Amazon) sustain high‑teens to 20%+ transaction growth even if e‑commerce growth slows?
AFRM remains a high‑beta, high‑expectation stock. The latest earnings report, Pacsun partnership and AI‑driven vision from management support the bull case. The multi‑state AG probe, elevated valuation and credit‑cycle uncertainties keep the bear case alive.
References
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