AI Stocks After the Bell: Oracle’s Earnings, Nvidia’s China Deal and Fed Jitters Shape the Trade on December 10, 2025

Artificial intelligence stocks are heading into one of the most closely watched after-hours sessions of the year on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, as traders brace for Oracle’s earnings, digest fresh Nvidia news on China chip exports, and wait for the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of 2025.

Across the AI complex — from chipmakers like Nvidia and Broadcom to software names such as C3.ai and Palantir — prices were mostly muted into the close, even though the stakes for tonight’s after‑the‑bell action are unusually high. ^[1]

Markets Pause as Fed and Oracle Put the AI Trade on Edge

Global stocks drifted lower on Wednesday as investors confronted a double risk: a divided Fed that’s widely expected to cut rates again, and earnings that could “test sky‑high AI valuations,” according to a Reuters market wrap. ^[2]

In early U.S. trading, the S&P 500 slipped around 0.2% while the tech‑heavy Nasdaq fell about 0.5%, with Wall Street essentially holding its breath ahead of the Fed announcement and a stacked evening earnings slate led by AI bellwether Oracle. ^[3]

Futures earlier in the day were already pointing to caution, with U.S. index futures “nudged slightly lower” as investors priced in roughly a 90% chance of another quarter‑point cut but worried that Chair Jerome Powell might guide to fewer cuts in 2026 than markets are hoping. ^[4]

For AI stocks, that backdrop matters. High‑growth names are particularly sensitive to discount rates and to any hint that the AI spending boom might not translate into durable earnings. That’s why so much of today’s anxiety is converging on one symbol: ORCL.

Oracle’s After-Hours Report Is a Referendum on the AI Boom

Oracle is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 2026 results after the closing bell on December 10, a report that has been framed as a “key moment for AI stocks” and even a referendum on the sustainability of the AI trade. ^[5]

Why Oracle suddenly matters so much for AI

Over the past two years, Oracle has aggressively pivoted from legacy database software toward becoming a cloud‑infrastructure provider for AI workloads. That pivot has been turbo‑charged by a massive $300 billion data‑center contract with OpenAI and other multiyear AI commitments, positioning Oracle’s OCI cloud as a key platform for training and inference. ^[6]

At its blowout September earnings, Oracle disclosed a $455 billion remaining performance obligation (RPO) backlog, with management teasing an eight‑fold ramp in OCI revenue to $144 billion by 2030. The stock surged 36% in a single session on that news — its biggest one‑day jump in decades — before giving back more than 40% in the weeks that followed as investors questioned how sustainable and financeable that growth really is. ^[7]

Ahead of tonight’s report, multiple previews highlight three core debates:

Debt‑fuelled AI build‑out
- Oracle has raised at least $18 billion in new bonds and is tied to another $38 billion in project‑finance loans for AI‑focused data centers, pushing its total debt above $100 billion and drawing a series of credit‑rating downgrades to BBB with a negative outlook. ^[8]
- Five‑year credit default swaps on Oracle have surged to their highest levels in years (and in some reports, since 2009), making the company a symbol of AI‑related credit risk. ^[9]
Is the AI backlog real demand or bubble fuel?
- Commentators warn about “circular financing” in AI, where big cloud and chip companies invest equity or credits into AI startups that, in turn, commit to buying compute or cloud capacity back from those same giants — inflating revenue and backlog numbers without proving end‑user demand. ^[10]
- With OpenAI projected to spend more than $1 trillion by 2030 while still unprofitable, analysts are openly asking how much of Oracle’s AI backlog will translate into cash. ^[11]
Valuation vs. execution risk
- Oracle shares are still up roughly a third year‑to‑date but remain about 35–40% below their September peak, even after a 10% rebound in the past week — a sign of how violently sentiment can swing on each AI data point. ^[12]
- A Trefis valuation note out Wednesday suggested fair value closer to $156 versus today’s trading around the low $220s, flagging “very high” valuation and limited upside if growth or margins disappoint. ^[13]

As of mid‑afternoon, Oracle stock was roughly flat, hovering near $221 ahead of the release, reflecting a market that knows the numbers could swing the entire AI basket but doesn’t yet know in which direction. ^[14]

Nvidia, China and the AI Chip Complex: Good News, Bad News

While Oracle dominates tonight’s narrative, Nvidia remains the gravitational center of AI investing. And it, too, is in the spotlight this week.

Trump’s H200 deal: a mixed blessing

On Monday, the U.S. government — via President Donald Trump — signaled it will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI accelerators, its second‑most powerful chips, to be exported to China under a new framework that includes tighter tracking and a revenue‑sharing mechanism with the U.S. government. ^[15]

The news initially sent Nvidia shares up about 2–3% in after‑hours trading and added to a roughly 3% regular‑session gain earlier in the week. TechStock²+1
However, analysts quickly pointed out that the arrangement still faces political risk and potential operational hurdles, with critics on both sides of the aisle worried about enabling Chinese AI capabilities. ^[16]

On Wednesday, Nvidia stock was essentially flat to slightly lower around $184, easing off recent highs as traders weighed the China relief against lofty expectations and a 12.6% slump in November despite “another blowout quarter” of earnings. ^[17]

Valuation debate heats up

Fresh research notes highlight how divided Wall Street has become on the stock:

A Seeking Alpha article published Wednesday argued that Nvidia is “not the roaring buy it once was,” citing rich short‑term valuation metrics and concerns that customers may be under‑depreciating GPU purchases, potentially crimping future demand. ^[18]
Conversely, a Nasdaq‑hosted Motley Fool piece stressed that Nvidia now trades at about 24× forward earnings, cheaper than Broadcom’s roughly 41×, while still having visibility into as much as $500 billion of Blackwell and Rubin chip orders through 2026. ^[19]

That tug‑of‑war has turned Nvidia into the poster child for the broader AI‑stock dilemma: enormous long‑term demand, but equally enormous expectations already priced in.

Broadcom’s turn tomorrow

If Oracle is tonight’s AI stress test, Broadcom is tomorrow’s. The chip and infrastructure giant reports Q4 FY2025 earnings after the close on Thursday, December 11. ^[20]

Analysts expect AI‑related revenues to grow roughly 66% year over year to about $6.2 billion, and several previews describe Broadcom as a “core AI enabler” across compute, networking and custom ASICs. ^[21]
Much like Nvidia, Broadcom has ridden massive demand from hyperscale data centers and multiyear AI contracts with customers such as OpenAI, but now faces questions about how long that growth can outpace the broader economy. ^[22]

Broadcom shares traded modestly lower near $402 on Wednesday afternoon, as investors appeared reluctant to make big bets ahead of the numbers. ^[23]

Software and Platforms: C3.ai, Palantir and the Mixed Reality of AI Adoption

Not all AI exposure comes from chips. Software and data‑platform names have been some of the biggest winners — and most volatile laggards — of the AI boom.

C3.ai: Army win vs. shrinking revenue

C3.ai stock jumped yesterday after the company announced the U.S. Army selected it to advance AI‑driven logistics, using its platform to improve operational readiness. The Benzinga report put the stock up nearly 4% on the day as traders cheered fresh proof of real‑world AI deployment in the defense sector. ^[24]

Yet the fundamental picture remains complex:

C3.ai’s latest quarterly report (released last week) showed a 20% revenue decline year‑over‑year, even as bookings and remaining performance obligations improved, reflecting the messy transition from license sales to subscription and consumption models. ^[25]
Analysts and rating services note that profitability is still elusive, and the stock continues to trade more on AI sentiment and contract headlines than on steady earnings power. ^[26]

By mid‑session Wednesday, C3.ai shares were roughly flat around $16, giving back a portion of yesterday’s pop as traders shifted focus to Oracle and the Fed. ^[27]

Palantir: The software bull case for AI

If C3.ai represents the high‑beta side of AI software, Palantir is the more established — and polarizing — version. A new Motley Fool analysis out today asks bluntly: “Is Palantir or Nvidia the best AI stock for 2026?” ^[28]

Key themes from recent Palantir coverage:

Both Palantir and Nvidia are growing revenue at more than 60% year‑over‑year and have dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 since 2023. ^[29]
Palantir’s edge lies in its AI‑enabled software platforms for governments and enterprises, which are rapidly embedding into mission‑critical workflows — from military operations to industrial logistics. ^[30]
The bear case is valuation: several analysts and articles highlight that Palantir trades at a “much higher” multiple than Nvidia and may be vulnerable if revenue growth normalizes. Others counter that if Palantir can keep crushing expectations, its premium multiple could persist. ^[31]

Notably, separate pieces this fall have warned that Palantir could be one of the AI names most at risk of a sizable drawdown in 2026 — alongside Nvidia — even as some billionaires and hedge funds continue to accumulate shares. ^[32]

Wall Street Is Hedging the AI Trade for 2026

Underneath today’s relatively calm price action lies a more anxious shift in strategy. Axios reports that, heading into 2026, many institutional investors are not predicting an outright AI crash but are actively adding downside protection— particularly on the most crowded AI winners. ^[33]

That emerging caution echoes other fresh commentary:

A new Motley Fool piece published Wednesday urges investors to sell two popular AI stocks before they fall 50% and 72% in 2026, citing stretched valuations and overly optimistic Street forecasts. ^[34]
Reuters notes that global stocks are wobbling as investors brace not just for the Fed decision but for earnings that “could test sky‑high AI valuations,” reinforcing the idea that the market is entering a “show‑me” phase where results must validate the hype. ^[35]
A separate analysis on Big Tech’s “AI‑fuelled debt binge” highlights Oracle, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon as key examples of companies whose capex is being increasingly scrutinized against their balance sheets and free cash flow. ^[36]

In other words, the AI story hasn’t turned bearish — but it has become far more binary. Winners may continue to compound, but the room for execution missteps is shrinking rapidly.

What to Watch After the Bell on December 10, 2025

For traders and longer‑term investors following AI stocks, tonight’s after‑hours session centers on a few critical questions:

Oracle’s cloud and AI backlog
- Does Oracle’s reported RPO and AI‑cloud backlog grow meaningfully from the already‑staggering $455 billion figure highlighted in September?
- Are there signs that customers like OpenAI are pacing or restructuring commitments? ^[37]
Capex, cash flow and credit risk
- How much AI‑related capex does Oracle guide for the next few years, and does management address mounting concerns about negative free cash flow and reliance on debt markets? ^[38]
- Any commentary that reassures credit markets could narrow CDS spreads — and by extension, ease systemic worries about an AI debt bubble. ^[39]
AI commentary tone: hype or normalization?
- Mentions of “AI” on earnings calls have already hit peak levels this season; investors will be listening closely to see if Oracle’s tone shifts from exuberant to more measured, or vice versa. ^[40]
Read‑through to other AI names
- Strong Oracle numbers and confident commentary on AI demand could provide a tailwind for Nvidia, Broadcom, C3.ai, Palantir and AI‑heavy ETFs like SMH and SOXX. Conversely, any cracks could drag the entire complex lower. ^[41]
Fed press conference and 2026 “dot plot”
- After the bell, Powell’s language on growth, inflation and the projected path of rates will influence discount‑rate assumptions embedded in AI valuations. A more hawkish‑than‑expected message could make richly valued growth stocks more vulnerable to multiple compression. ^[42]

Outlook: A Maturing AI Trade, Not a Finished One

Taken together, December 10, 2025 is shaping up as a pivot point rather than a final verdict on AI stocks.

On one side, the fundamentals remain powerful: hyperscalers are still ramping AI capex, Nvidia and Broadcom enjoy multi‑year order visibility, and software platforms like Palantir and C3.ai continue to land mission‑critical contracts in government and enterprise. ^[43]
On the other, concerns around debt‑fuelled spending, balance‑sheet risk, and the possibility of “circular” AI revenues are forcing investors to differentiate more sharply between durable cash‑generating franchises and story‑driven names. ^[44]

For now, AI heavyweights like Nvidia, Oracle and Broadcom remain at the centre of both the hope and the fear. Tonight’s after‑the‑bell earnings from Oracle — and tomorrow’s from Broadcom — won’t end the debate, but they will go a long way toward deciding whether the AI trade closes 2025 with a bang, a wobble, or a full‑blown reality check.

Important note: This article is for informational and news‑reporting purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.