AI Stocks Frenzy: Nvidia’s $100B Bet & Other Big Moves Ignite Markets (Sept 28

Chipmaker news drives markets: NVIDIA announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI (involving both equity and chips) ^[1], sending its stock to record highs. Analysts warned this fuels antitrust concerns over “circular” deals ^[2] ^[3].
Cloud and software gains: Google’s parent Alphabet hit a $3 trillion valuation on revived AI optimism ^[4] and jumped after winning a key U.S. court ruling (blocking a forced breakup) ^[5]. Google Cloud cited a $106 billion sales backlog (mostly AI clients) ^[6], while Microsoft reported booming Azure growth and a record $30 billion capex plan ^[7].
China tech rallies: Alibaba’s stock jumped ~10% after unveiling a partnership with NVIDIA, plans for global AI data centers, and a massive new 1-trillion-parameter AI model ^[8] ^[9]. CEO Eddie Wu said AI infrastructure demand has “far exceeded our expectations” ^[10].
Valuations and warnings: Palantir (data analytics/AI) again raised its revenue outlook on surging demand ^[11]. Its shares have doubled in 2025, and analysts (e.g. Wedbush’s Britzman) eye a future $1 trillion market cap ^[12] – though Morningstar cautions its 200× forward P/E is “difficult to justify” ^[13]. Bond guru Bill Gross recently warned of AI “malinvestment” by tech giants, predicting some current trends (and stock prices) will slow dramatically ^[14].
Broader market backdrop: U.S. tech-led indexes remain near all-time highs (S&P 500 up ~14% YTD, largely AI-driven) ^[15]. But veteran investors note government fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, defense spending) is also propping markets ^[16]. For example, Europe’s defense stocks are up ~68% this year ^[17]. Experts advise a balanced strategy: “active over passive,” favoring cyclicals, infrastructure and value as the AI party matures ^[18] ^[19].
Regulatory spotlight: U.S. and EU oversight is intensifying. A U.S. judge preserved Google’s core business (ending talk of a breakup) ^[20], but new rules (DMA) could soon slap Alphabet with a record fine ^[21]. Apple and Meta already paid €1.8 billion in April under the DMA ^[22]. In Asia, U.S. export curbs on advanced chips hit Samsung and SK Hynix hard (stocks fell ~3-5%) ^[23], underscoring geopolitics in the AI supply chain.

Global market action: By late September, Asian and U.S. markets were buoyant on continued AI optimism. Reuters reported Asian stocks mostly climbed Sept. 29 despite U.S. political risks ^[24]. Tokyo’s Nikkei dipped slightly but remained ~5% above its August close ^[25]. South Korea’s index jumped ~1.5%, China’s CSI300 gained ~0.7% ahead of holidays ^[26]. U.S. futures were up (~0.3% S&P, ~0.4% Nasdaq) as investors awaited data amid a looming government funding stalemate ^[27] ^[28].

AI chipmakers lead headlines: Nvidia continues to dominate the story. In a blockbuster Sept. 22 announcement, NVIDIA will pump up to $100 billion into OpenAI – providing capital plus AI chips needed to train OpenAI’s models ^[29]. This news crushed worries that China might ban its chips (which had dented NVDA stock briefly) ^[30]. The deal has analysts both excited and uneasy: Matt Britzman (Hargreaves Lansdown) noted “every gigawatt of AI capacity is ~$50 billion, so this project could be $500 billion” – affirming Nvidia’s long-term upside ^[31]. But Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon warned the setup “fuels” earlier antitrust “concerns” about circular chip investments ^[32]. Indeed, the plan will likely draw scrutiny from U.S. and EU regulators.

Other chip-related moves: Qualcomm (QCOM) in late September unveiled new PC/mobile chips with AI-friendly features ^[33]; the CEO boasted these could improve security for remote device management ^[34]. Intel (INTC) is benefiting indirectly – on Sept. 18, when NVIDIA took a $5 billion stake in Intel, INTC surged ~23% (its biggest one-day jump since 1987) ^[35]. That stake and related NVIDIA-Intel AI collaboration lifted semis broadly. Meanwhile, AMD (AMD), which trails Nvidia in data-center AI chips, has warned of headwinds. In August AMD guided for ~$1.5 billion revenue loss in 2025 due to export curbs to China and noted only modest Q2 data-center growth ^[36]. Its Q3 outlook (Aug. update) was cautious, tempering investor expectations.

Cloud providers and tech giants: Microsoft (MSFT) remains a pillar of the AI boom. In late July it reported Azure cloud revenue up ~39% year-on-year ^[37] and announced a record $30 billion capex for Q1 (fiscal) – far above estimates. Management said this heavy spending was tied to signed customer contracts and was boosting sales ^[38] ^[39]. Investors cheered: MSFT stock jumped ~9% in after-hours on that report. Reuters noted Microsoft’s and Meta’s results together had added ~$500 billion in market value to AI stocks ^[40] ^[41]. Microsoft’s CFO Amy Hood emphasized that record capex was justified by “contracted, on-the-books” AI demand ^[42], and analysts agreed the disclosures “justify” its AI investments ^[43].

Alphabet (GOOGL) has also ridden the AI wave. September 15 saw Google’s market cap hit $3 trillion ^[44] after a favorable U.S. court ruling. The Justice Dept. had sought to break up Google’s core businesses, but Judge Mehta opted only for limited restrictions ^[45] ^[46]. That removed a huge overhang and sent Class A shares up ~9% on Sept. 3 ^[47]. Analysts noted Google will keep key revenue streams (like search payments from Apple) intact ^[48], and Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer called the outcome “a relief” for Google’s business model ^[49]. Importantly for AI investors, Google Cloud – long overshadowed by search ad revenues – is accelerating. At a tech conference on Sept. 9, Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian disclosed a backlog of ~$106 billion in future sales, mostly from AI projects ^[50]. Nine of the world’s top 10 AI labs (including OpenAI and Anthropic) are now Google Cloud customers ^[51]. Alphabet’s CEO Sundar Pichai has increased the 2025 capex budget to $85 billion, citing cloud demand ^[52]. These trends reinforced Wall Street’s faith in Google’s AI upside. In fact, Reuters reported Google stock (+32% YTD) is now the top performer among the “Magnificent Seven” AI tech stocks ^[53].

Meta Platforms (META) is also a big AI spender. In late July it forecast Q3 revenues above estimates, attributing growth to AI-driven ad tools ^[54] ^[55]. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is plowing billions into data centers and AI talent (notably buying a large stake in startup Scale AI and hiring its CEO) ^[56]. Meta raised its capex guidance by $2 billion (to ~$66–72B for FY 2025) ^[57]. The results set off an 11% stock rally on July 30 ^[58]. Analysts like Minda Smiley (eMarketer) praised that AI is “paying off” for Meta’s ad business ^[59], though she warned of investor scrutiny over Meta’s sky-high spending and pending regulatory challenges ^[60].

Other tech/software names: Palantir (PLTR) has been a standout. In August its Q2 results beat estimates, spurring a near-9% jump in the stock ^[61]. Palantir’s CFO doubled its 2025 revenue forecast to ~$4.15 billion ^[62], citing surging demand from enterprise and a $10 billion Army contract. Saxo’s Jacob Falkencrone quipped that Palantir “isn’t just a government vendor anymore – it’s becoming an indispensable partner for enterprises in the AI revolution” ^[63]. Wedbush analysts even floated the idea that Palantir could reach a $1 trillion market cap in coming years ^[64]. But reminders came: Palantir trades at over 200× forward earnings ^[65], vastly above peers (Nvidia ~35×). Morningstar cautioned this could become “a difficult-to-justify valuation story” ^[66] if execution lags. (For context, the S&P 500 ex-Big Tech has gained ~12% YTD, vs ~171% rise in Nvidia over two years ^[67].)

Other listed AI-focused companies: C3.ai (AI enterprise software) and Snowflake (data) have been volatile, but Reuters hasn’t highlighted them in late Sept. (Private “unicorns” like OpenAI and Anthropic remain private.) Tesla (TSLA) is sometimes grouped as an “AI/robotics” play via self-driving, but its late-Sept price action was more impacted by Musk’s recent stock purchase (he bought $1B on Sept. 21) and interest rate news than by AI product news ^[68]. That said, Tesla’s $1 trillion valuation target (and full self-driving rollout hopes) is a wildcard for some tech investors. No significant new announcements on Tesla or robots were reported on Sept 28–29.

Regulatory and geopolitical developments: AI’s rise is intersecting with government policy everywhere. In the U.S., focus on AI is coupled with big tech antitrust and chip controls. The European Union is gearing up to impose a record fine on Google under its new Digital Markets Act ^[69] – a complaint filed in March alleges Google illegally favored its own shopping and travel services. (Apple and Meta already paid €1.8 billion combined under the DMA in April for App Store and ad issues ^[70].) U.S. regulators remain watchful: the Defense Department has called for careful handling of AI exports and research in sensitive areas. Over the weekend of Sept. 27–28, Reuters reported the White House would push AI export promotion and tighten some state-level controls (especially on government procurement of foreign AI) ^[71] ^[72].

On semiconductors, the U.S. further restricted exports to China. Notably, it revoked special authorizations that had allowed South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix to upgrade Chinese chip plants ^[73]. That news (reported Sept. 1) sent SK Hynix shares down ~4.8% and Samsung ~3% ^[74]. It means new high-end fabs in China might have trouble getting Nvidia- or AMD-level equipment. This adds a “longer-term distraction” as UBS’s Haefele notes, reinforcing the need to look beyond short-term AI fervor ^[75].

Analyst forecasts & commentary: Amid the optimism, many analysts urge caution. Bond legend Bill Gross likened the current rush to past bubbles, warning of “malinvestment” as tech giants pour cash into AI infrastructure ^[76]. He said some leading AI investments “may experience significantly reduced growth” if overdone. Others highlight pockets of excess: e.g. Chinese regulators recently warned against “herd behaviour” in speculative sectors ^[77], a veiled reference to irrational AI stock speculation. On the other hand, some see continued upside: Wedbush says it expects more infrastructure buildouts and private/public spending to soak up AI overcapacity. BMO’s markets team noted that U.S. fiscal stimulus (trillions in tax cuts and spending) could ultimately drive real-demand in energy, biotech and defense ^[78].

A common refrain is to diversify. UBS’s Mark Haefele told Reuters investors must align with government policy trends, not just chase AI hype ^[79]. Generali’s Antonio Cavarero added that spending on energy and infrastructure has a multi-year tailwind ^[80]. Nuveen’s Saira Malik said AI gains have been skewed to U.S. tech; she expects returns to spread to value sectors, small-cap, and international markets as the dollar weakens ^[81]. Many firms thus favor active strategies: Haefele says “less time for beta, more time for active investing” right now ^[82]. As a result, analysts increased coverage on some names: e.g. after Palantir’s results, 11 brokerages raised price targets ^[83].

Key company insights:

Nvidia (NVDA) remains king of AI chips (80% market share by some measures ^[84]). Its Blackwell GPU rollout in 2025 prompted massive data-center spend by Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon ^[85]. NVDA stock hit new highs (~$998 per share end-Sept) – reflecting that recent $100B OpenAI deal (and rumors of new Chinese chip export licenses). No earnings were announced in late Sept, but analysts like Stacy Rasgon and Kim Forrest emphasize Nvidia’s market power and potential regulatory scrutiny ^[86] ^[87]. Intel (INTC) also grabbed headlines: besides Nvidia’s investment, Intel is on track for ~$28 billion operating profit (Visible Alpha estimate) and is partnering on new AI hardware ^[88].
AMD (AMD) is the other major chip player. It reports in mid-Oct; earlier guidance was mixed. Its new MI300 series (MI350) chips began volume production in June ^[89], but U.S. export bans to China have held back shipments ^[90]. Investors have grown slightly optimistic due to improving PC chip demand (forecasting Q3 above estimates), but remain cautious on AMD’s data-center acceleration ^[91].
Alphabet (GOOGL) – its Q2 (July) ads revenue missed soft, but cloud and AI bucked trends. With Google Search under pricing pressure, management is banking on AI integrations and cloud growth. The recent court win (Sept 3) removed a major overhang ^[92]. Analysts expect Google’s Q3 (Oct reports) to show continued cloud strength and new ads formats (e.g. Gemini AI in Search). The upcoming EU DMA fine (possibly late Sept news) is a near-term risk.
Amazon (AMZN) – AWS continues to grow (last report: ~27% y/y in Q2), though slower than peers. AWS still dominates cloud, but Microsoft and Google are catching up. On Sept 28, one analyst noted Amazon’s rumored deal to equip ChatGPT with AWS was fueling optimism (though not yet confirmed publicly). Overall, AMZN stock has run up ~15% YTD, partly on AI hype (AWS AI services, hardware like Trainium chips).
Microsoft (MSFT) – beyond Azure growth (39% y/y), investors will watch the Oct. 24 earnings. Expectations are high: Azure revenue likely still outpacing other segments, and Windows/Office sales could get boosts from new AI features. Its stock (~$370) reflects steady confidence, and many analysts maintain “buy” ratings given its diversified AI exposures.
Meta (META) – after strong Q2, attention turns to Q3 (Oct 25). Ads are still powering ~25% growth, partly via AI optimization. But costs for AI (talent, data centers) have also skyrocketed: FY24 capex ~10% of revenue, up from ~6% in FY23 ^[93]. CEO Zuckerberg vows to “push very aggressively” on AI strategy ^[94]. Experts will debate if Meta’s Llama 4 model rollout (later in October) can match ChatGPT’s hype.
IBM, Oracle, Salesforce, SAP – these enterprise players are adding AI features to their products. Oracle (ORCL) recently stunned Wall Street with higher-than-expected cloud bookings and stock soared (behind the scenes of our period, ORCL had a big Aug jump ^[95]). Oracle’s co-CEO Safra Catz credited AI demand for its cloud growth (bookings up triple-digits) and foresees $500B addressable market ^[96]. SAP and Salesforce have teased AI-enhanced releases, but no major announcements surfaced on Sept 28-29.
Robotics and auto – Tesla (TSLA) remains volatile. Its “Full Self-Driving” tech is still beta, but investors have high hopes for robotaxis and Dojo AI supercomputer. Musk’s late-Sept $1B stock buy indicated he thought TSLA was underpriced. (Note: Reuters reported on Sept 28 that Musk will take ~50% pay in stock for a new 2025 RSU grant.) Other auto AI news: Toyota and Volkswagen are developing their own chips and AI cars, but no fresh stock-specific news hit those days. Cruise and Waymo ride-sharing regulators are in talks – but those are more long-term. Boston Dynamics (robotics) is still private under Hyundai, so no stock to track.

Global watchpoints: China’s AI sector remains potent but watchful. Alibaba’s big AI push (Sept. 24) comes as Beijing both encourages tech advances and warns against “herd” investing in hype ^[97]. The golden week holiday (starting Oct 1) means few official China updates, but investors know the government is closely monitoring bubble risks. In Europe, policymakers are talking up AI too: France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz have unveiled plans to spur AI startups. However, EU regulators also focus on Big Tech accountability (as seen with the Google/Apple/Meta fines).

Summary outlook: The late-September news cycle underscored that AI remains the dominant theme in markets. Tech giants reported strong results or forecasts tied to AI usage ^[98] ^[99], chip leaders made billion-dollar bets, and big Chinese firms doubled down with mega-projects ^[100]. Stocks responded: many AI-linked shares are up double- or triple-digit percentages year-to-date. Yet experts caution that valuations are extreme and fundamentals (e.g. earnings, interest rates, regulatory costs) will eventually matter more. For now, analysts predict continued volatility – with tech momentum continuing if no black swan appears. Investors are advised to balance (some say “active over passive” ^[101]) and keep an eye on the next catalysts: upcoming earnings (late October for most tech), Fed policy shifts (cuts are widely anticipated in November–December), and any concrete news on AI regulation.

Sources: Summaries and quotes are drawn from recent Reuters and Bloomberg reporting and official filings. Notable sources include Reuters technology and markets articles on September 28–29, 2025 ^[102] ^[103] ^[104], as well as expert comments published therein ^[105] ^[106]. In all cases we link to the original stories or press releases for full details.

NVIDIA is Buying 6 Smaller A.I. Stocks for the Future! - Should You Too?