NEW YORK, January 2, 2026, 10:13 ET — Regular session
Nvidia shares rose 2.9% to $191.93 on Friday after Reuters reported the AI chipmaker had approached Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co about ramping up production of its H200 graphics processing units (GPUs), chips used to train and run AI models. Sources told Reuters Chinese technology companies have ordered more than 2 million H200 chips for delivery in 2026, far above Nvidia’s current inventory of about 700,000 units. The report said TSMC was expected to start work on expanded output in the second quarter, but Chinese authorities have yet to greenlight any H200 shipments. 1
The demand signal is landing as investors reopen the AI trade after a choppy end to 2025 and a fresh round of positioning to start the year. Supply constraints and shifting China-related rules have become key swing factors for revenue expectations across the AI chip supply chain.
Chip stocks led the tape, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up 4.5% and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 4.1%, outpacing the Nasdaq-tracking Invesco QQQ, up 1.1%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, up 0.6%.
Advanced Micro Devices was up 5.5% at $226.00, while Micron Technology rose 7.8% to $307.61 and TSMC’s U.S.-listed shares gained 4.7% to $318.11. Broadcom added 3.4% to $357.73. Alphabet rose 2.2% to $319.82, while Microsoft fell 0.5% to $481.10.
The moves underscore how investors continue to treat the chips-and-memory stack as the tightest constraint in the AI buildout. Any hint of extra capacity tends to lift not just the lead designer, but also foundries, memory suppliers and adjacent hardware.
Overseas, Samsung Electronics said customers had praised the competitiveness of its next-generation HBM4, or high-bandwidth memory, chips — a type of memory used alongside AI processors — and noted it remained in talks to supply HBM4 to Nvidia as it tries to close the gap with SK Hynix. Counterpoint Research data cited by Reuters showed SK Hynix held 53% of the HBM market in the third quarter of 2025, followed by Samsung with 35% and Micron with 11%. 2
In China, Baidu said its AI chip unit Kunlunxin confidentially filed for a Hong Kong listing on Jan. 1, a move that could pave the way for a spin-off; Reuters had previously reported the unit was valued at 21 billion yuan ($3 billion) in a fundraising round. Baidu’s U.S.-listed shares jumped 12.5% to $147.02. 3
Investors also face a heavy January calendar, with the U.S. jobs report due on Jan. 9 and the consumer price index on Jan. 13, while policymakers weigh next steps after the Fed cut rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025. “The market is looking for direction,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Analysts see S&P 500 earnings up 15.5% in 2026 after about 13% in 2025, according to LSEG IBES, a database of analyst estimates. 4
For AI stocks, traders are watching whether China approvals materialize and whether additional supply can come online without creating new bottlenecks elsewhere. Any policy shift on cross-border AI chip sales would quickly reprice the sector.
The other focus is competition inside the AI hardware stack. Nvidia remains the benchmark for AI accelerators, but AMD and Broadcom are pushing alternatives and custom designs, while memory makers supply the high-speed chips that sit next to the processors.
Earnings season will test how much of the AI spending cycle is already priced in. Investors will be listening for comments on orders, pricing and lead times — and for signs that demand is broadening without eroding margins.
So far, the first session of 2026 is reinforcing a familiar pattern: when the AI supply chain turns into a headline, chip stocks move first.
